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11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:17 pm

Trying here a very small amount of TZA; in case of a sell near the close. Still holding TNA and some TZA at higher price.
Overall in the green nicely.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby taggard » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:19 pm

newbie_77 wrote:hello taggard,
thank you. what you said is very true.
i bought SPXU for 13.90 on 11.15 but exited on 11.17 when it reached 15.30 .. had i waited couple more days could have sold for 17+ basically gave more than 50% .. which is basically what's happening to me :D

taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:master cobra,
you sound emotional. you are expecting :D ....

so far i have learned following since i joined this board and started following master cobra... which was not very long ago:
1. i learned to control emotional based trading :D
2. stopped front-running
3. follow the trend and get out when you have made small gains :D ... don't be greedy.
4. what goes up must come down :D and when it comes down it does bounce up again :D

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, this really is a nice market, simply gap up every day and do nothing. I expect today to be different though because the 3rd time is the charm.


you may eventually want to examine the part about "made small gains". my worst problem is not staying in trades that are working well. the difference in performance over time is huge--if you stick with the trades that work. interestingly you note that you stopped front running (good work) but in a sense "get out when you have small gains" is also "front running". in both cases an assumption is made about the future that controls current action.

the question i have for myself is why am i not letting the market stop me out more on a good trend? Frankly i think this is not rational on my part as the evidence demonstrates otherwise. so the idea is to slowly stretch out the moves. not suggesting rash action just slowly doing this. my data shows i often leave 50% of the trade on the table--the trades often work since they are extended away from the trend at exit (good) but miss the really profitable 2nd part of the trade (bad).

--------------------------

Maybe the issue is defining when one is in a decent trade. often fixing problems like this is tricky at first since the obvious move is to invert and hold--in my case that would actually work better--but would involve a lot more smaller losses which at this point doesn't see right.

i trade (at this point) mostly intra day so i can see where that is less intense than your holding over nite in this market. the idea being i should be more aware of the quality of the move. in stronger trends it's not wrong to hold in marginal trends ranges etc--it is generally less wise to hold. The problem of trend quality does not have to involve future assumptions (something i am trying as much as possible to avoid right now) it's more the immediate strength of the move--and whenever possible the mood of the players.

For example a trend going up to absurd heights is a lot easier to trust if you see people buying tons of puts as it goes up. The market is climbing the stairway to heaven on the bodies of the shorts.

the trick for me is really paying attention over what is to you a fairly short period of time--but really listening during that short period. in any case glad your trade worked.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:19 pm

taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:master cobra,
you sound emotional. you are expecting :D ....

so far i have learned following since i joined this board and started following master cobra... which was not very long ago:
1. i learned to control emotional based trading :D
2. stopped front-running
3. follow the trend and get out when you have made small gains :D ... don't be greedy.
4. what goes up must come down :D and when it comes down it does bounce up again :D

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, this really is a nice market, simply gap up every day and do nothing. I expect today to be different though because the 3rd time is the charm.


you may eventually want to examine the part about "made small gains". my worst problem is not staying in trades that are working well. the difference in performance over time is huge--if you stick with the trades that work. interestingly you note that you stopped front running (good work) but in a sense "get out when you have small gains" is also "front running". in both cases an assumption is made about the future that controls current action.

the question i have for myself is why am i not letting the market stop me out more on a good trend? Frankly i think this is not rational on my part as the evidence demonstrates otherwise. so the idea is to slowly stretch out the moves. not suggesting rash action just slowly doing this. my data shows i often leave 50% of the trade on the table--the trades often work since they are extended away from the trend at exit (good) but miss the really profitable 2nd part of the trade (bad).


Well said, run on small profit is also front running.

We need a balanced way.

Let winners run is wise but also difficult to handle because there's another part: don't let your winner turn into loser.

balance.

How to balance?

I wish I'd know. :(

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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby ddd » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:21 pm

Second chance to close DT longs at closing.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby BlackThought » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:25 pm

sold all my calls.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Seawaves » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:27 pm

ddd wrote:Second chance to close DT longs at closing.

why? the market has built up the potential to go much higher in weeks.
buying dip is the way to go now.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Carlos » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:30 pm

There was an macd crossing on the 5min chart a few mins ago.... buy the dip for tomorrow's push up?
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby brokebybernacke2 » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:32 pm

carlos
buy all dips!
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby cougar » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:32 pm

taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:hello taggard,
thank you. what you said is very true.
i bought SPXU for 13.90 on 11.15 but exited on 11.17 when it reached 15.30 .. had i waited couple more days could have sold for 17+ basically gave more than 50% .. which is basically what's happening to me :D

taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:master cobra,
you sound emotional. you are expecting :D ....

so far i have learned following since i joined this board and started following master cobra... which was not very long ago:
1. i learned to control emotional based trading :D
2. stopped front-running
3. follow the trend and get out when you have made small gains :D ... don't be greedy.
4. what goes up must come down :D and when it comes down it does bounce up again :D

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, this really is a nice market, simply gap up every day and do nothing. I expect today to be different though because the 3rd time is the charm.


you may eventually want to examine the part about "made small gains". my worst problem is not staying in trades that are working well. the difference in performance over time is huge--if you stick with the trades that work. interestingly you note that you stopped front running (good work) but in a sense "get out when you have small gains" is also "front running". in both cases an assumption is made about the future that controls current action.

the question i have for myself is why am i not letting the market stop me out more on a good trend? Frankly i think this is not rational on my part as the evidence demonstrates otherwise. so the idea is to slowly stretch out the moves. not suggesting rash action just slowly doing this. my data shows i often leave 50% of the trade on the table--the trades often work since they are extended away from the trend at exit (good) but miss the really profitable 2nd part of the trade (bad).

--------------------------

Maybe the issue is defining when one is in a decent trade. often fixing problems like this is tricky at first since the obvious move is to invert and hold--in my case that would actually work better--but would involve a lot more smaller losses which at this point doesn't see right.

i trade (at this point) mostly intra day so i can see where that is less intense than your holding over nite in this market. the idea being i should be more aware of the quality of the move. in stronger trends it's not wrong to hold in marginal trends ranges etc--it is generally less wise to hold. The problem of trend quality does not have to involve future assumptions (something i am trying as much as possible to avoid right now) it's more the immediate strength of the move--and whenever possible the mood of the players.

For example a trend going up to absurd heights is a lot easier to trust if you see people buying tons of puts as it goes up. The market is climbing the stairway to heaven on the bodies of the shorts.

the trick for me is really paying attention over what is to you a fairly short period of time--but really listening during that short period. in any case glad your trade worked.

Taggard: you identified an interesting problem! Cobra is right: it is a very tricky matter!

Many people I know admitted that they have “exit problems” and that they get furious, in retrospect. Obviously, knowing when to exit is essential and, probably, more important than the “entry” because if you miss an entry you don’t literally suffer…but you CAN NOT AFFORD to take a wrong exit because you are already in the trade.

So, I will give you 2 simple “hints” that I used:
1. Stops or trailing stops are to be avoided because there is no general rule concerning the distance between price and stop level... I usually put a technical but moving stop, at a “cracking” levels, typical for each situation and equity, under which the price would enter a distinct and dangerous “zone of movement“…
2. How can one fight his own psychological “trading hang-ups”? By doing something which is contrary to human nature…I mean with real but little money. I did it by trying to buy on the way up! Why? Well, because humans wrongly think that it is stupid to do this since their entry price gets to be higher…Wrong! They forget that the amount now invested in the trade also increased and more important, the trade is going in the right direction and you probably (and hopefully) got more reasons to want to stay in it!

This is all IMHO!
GL!
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby taggard » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:33 pm

Cobra wrote:
taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:master cobra,
you sound emotional. you are expecting :D ....

so far i have learned following since i joined this board and started following master cobra... which was not very long ago:
1. i learned to control emotional based trading :D
2. stopped front-running
3. follow the trend and get out when you have made small gains :D ... don't be greedy.
4. what goes up must come down :D and when it comes down it does bounce up again :D

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, this really is a nice market, simply gap up every day and do nothing. I expect today to be different though because the 3rd time is the charm.


you may eventually want to examine the part about "made small gains". my worst problem is not staying in trades that are working well. the difference in performance over time is huge--if you stick with the trades that work. interestingly you note that you stopped front running (good work) but in a sense "get out when you have small gains" is also "front running". in both cases an assumption is made about the future that controls current action.

the question i have for myself is why am i not letting the market stop me out more on a good trend? Frankly i think this is not rational on my part as the evidence demonstrates otherwise. so the idea is to slowly stretch out the moves. not suggesting rash action just slowly doing this. my data shows i often leave 50% of the trade on the table--the trades often work since they are extended away from the trend at exit (good) but miss the really profitable 2nd part of the trade (bad).


Well said, run on small profit is also front running.

We need a balanced way.

Let winners run is wise but also difficult to handle because there's another part: don't let your winner turn into loser.

balance.

How to balance?

I wish I'd know. :(




well only a suggestion--how about you get on trend with 100% of position. get out as usual with 75% of your gains and leave 25% in. the attitude has to be "it's not about the money". meanwhile while you are in you are noting the background of the trade--both the stuff on the charts and what you feel. someplace we are not actually looking at what is going on (like a blind spot in the rear view mirror--that we are unaware of) but we know we are messing up since we see the pattern.

the problem is how to learn to spot variations in trend strength.

part of this is fairly simple such as price bars (are they decent sized--non- tailed bars) and is background good (ad on nyse is 8 to 10 to 1 upside. but part of this is paying some attention to our reactions--we have to calm down inside the trade--in order to see (or feel) the variations in quality. in my case i start to focus on the gains--and have to literally say to my self "dude it's not bout the money". if i can get to that point (which is not happening nearly enough) then i start to watch things with a different eye.

i am sure of one thing scaling the trade size is important. most people don't scale to much dependent on market conditions. so they have something they like but they don't adjust as the market does.

in order to learn smaller amounts should be at risk--in order to really go for it larger amounts should be at risk. the rest of the time a reasonable amount to keep one self sharp and in tune with the market should be at risk.

after some sense of quality starts to come into play (say 300 trades if trading intra day) hopefully the records kept will clue as to what was wrong and what is being fixed.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:37 pm

spy trying for new HOD
25 minutes left, plenty of time for a good squeeze
On second thought, why not just keep squeezing the banks
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby ddd » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:37 pm

Seawaves wrote:
ddd wrote:Second chance to close DT longs at closing.

why? the market has built up the potential to go much higher in weeks.
buying dip is the way to go now.



True. My ST is aiming for Dec 30.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby taggard » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:38 pm

[
taggard wrote:
newbie_77 wrote:master cobra,
you sound emotional. you are expecting :D ....

so far i have learned following since i joined this board and started following master cobra... which was not very long ago:
1. i learned to control emotional based trading :D
2. stopped front-running
3. follow the trend and get out when you have made small gains :D ... don't be greedy.
4. what goes up must come down :D and when it comes down it does bounce up again :D

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, this really is a nice market, simply gap up every day and do nothing. I expect today to be different though because the 3rd time is the charm.


you may eventually want to examine the part about "made small gains". my worst problem is not staying in trades that are working well. the difference in performance over time is huge--if you stick with the trades that work. interestingly you note that you stopped front running (good work) but in a sense "get out when you have small gains" is also "front running". in both cases an assumption is made about the future that controls current action.

the question i have for myself is why am i not letting the market stop me out more on a good trend? Frankly i think this is not rational on my part as the evidence demonstrates otherwise. so the idea is to slowly stretch out the moves. not suggesting rash action just slowly doing this. my data shows i often leave 50% of the trade on the table--the trades often work since they are extended away from the trend at exit (good) but miss the really profitable 2nd part of the trade (bad).
[/quote]
--------------------------

Maybe the issue is defining when one is in a decent trade. often fixing problems like this is tricky at first since the obvious move is to invert and hold--in my case that would actually work better--but would involve a lot more smaller losses which at this point doesn't see right.

i trade (at this point) mostly intra day so i can see where that is less intense than your holding over nite in this market. the idea being i should be more aware of the quality of the move. in stronger trends it's not wrong to hold in marginal trends ranges etc--it is generally less wise to hold. The problem of trend quality does not have to involve future assumptions (something i am trying as much as possible to avoid right now) it's more the immediate strength of the move--and whenever possible the mood of the players.

For example a trend going up to absurd heights is a lot easier to trust if you see people buying tons of puts as it goes up. The market is climbing the stairway to heaven on the bodies of the shorts.

the trick for me is really paying attention over what is to you a fairly short period of time--but really listening during that short period. in any case glad your trade worked.[/quote]
Taggard: you identified an interesting problem! Cobra is right: it is a very tricky matter!

Many people I know admitted that they have “exit problems” and that they get furious, in retrospect. Obviously, knowing when to exit is essential and, probably, more important than the “entry” because if you miss an entry you don’t literally suffer…but you CAN NOT AFFORD to take a wrong exit because you are already in the trade.

So, I will give you 2 simple “hints” that I used:
1. Stops or trailing stops are to be avoided because there is no general rule concerning the distance between price and stop level... I usually put a technical but moving stop, at a “cracking” levels, typical for each situation and equity, under which the price would enter a distinct and dangerous “zone of movement“…
2. How can one fight his own psychological “trading hang-ups”? By doing something which is contrary to human nature…I mean with real but little money. I did it by trying to buy on the way up! Why? Well, because humans wrongly think that it is stupid to do this since their entry price gets to be higher…Wrong! They forget that the amount now invested in the trade also increased and more important, the trade is going in the right direction and you probably (and hopefully) got more reasons to want to stay in it!

This is all IMHO!
GL![/quote]



could not agree more on the stops/trailing. i gather you are saying "short term average up into the move" as counter intuitive so do it in the case of todays action. i see the point--thank you
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:38 pm

key time. I think a breakout is just a matter of time, but I don't think it'd be a decisive breakout.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby tapesense » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:40 pm

More targets up and upper up then also some are up. Some have reversed up, while some are initiating upwardlike. Up point is, up.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Dow Trader » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:41 pm

just opened a small short positions at 1240 and I will add more if touched 1250 , this is a small positions for holding over night and with 2 target
1- 1200
2- 1150

I can wait days or even weeks for this target because it is a must target in my view ... in the same time I will scalp for day trading :twisted: 8-)
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Me XMan » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:41 pm

Well well I'm stopped out...
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:42 pm

breakout as I said, but still shy of my target, let's see.
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby cougar » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:43 pm

Al_Dente wrote:spy trying for new HOD
25 minutes left, plenty of time for a good squeeze
On second thought, why not just keep squeezing the banks


Right now, : My SPX positions go UP again nicely while my NDX are stagnant!
Why?
Because the Bernank and Tim don’t bail out Techs and Biotechs…but they love the Banksters!
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Re: 11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby lqiantobe » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:43 pm

corba~ any comments on MBI, do you think if close HOD, any follow through tmr?
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