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12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby newbie_77 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:15 pm

i might be wrong but based on what i understood, there is multi-facet to his trades...

i am thinking this is what happened when we were around the top of 125SPY he bought dec 17 spy 125 put for around $2.60-$2.55 range.. and he sold 125 SPY for dec 09 around the low of the day for $2.10 - $2.19 .. so its for total of debit of $0.50 .. but the best part of this trade is following. he has no capital outlay except $0.50/contract. [ nothing on margin :D ]
if we close below SPY 125 for both weeks he would still get the dividend of $0.90 so he would be $0.40 ahead .... [ that is if he is keeping them to expiration ]

otherwise he can close the spreads for more than $0.50 his actual outlay... [ its already like 1.03 :D ] ... 0.53 profit :D ... this margin will get wider by monday because of theta... [ this is all i could figure out so far there might be more to this trade :D ]

Al_Dente wrote:Paging cougar:
Cool, now I have something new to watch to figure out WTF yr doing
Soooo, net-ish = sorta sorta -$1
Short expires on the 9th
Leaving you bear meat <125
??? am i on the right track??? (remember geezer here)
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Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby soku » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:16 pm

StrikePrice wrote:
Buckethead wrote:Markets don't extend volatility over long periods of time like this in bull markets. It's easy to say in 12 months that the prev 12 months was a bear market when indices are down net large %'s

SB73 wrote:This is not a bull market, this is not a bear market. Although when I asked my daughter with crayons to tell me if it was going up or down she drew a line up and then down and then up and then down. I suppose tonight it will be up again, but tomorrow it may be down.


Really?

So how do explain 1998 and 1999? That wasn't a Bull Market while the VIX was above 30?

there were bunch of comparison between 1998 and 2011. i think in 1998 the only time vix over 30 was during july to oct, a bear rally took over 30%. when we talked about y2k bull market, we usually started from nov 1998.
The goal is not uniformity. It is understanding and idea exchange.
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Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:30 pm

newbie_77 wrote:i might be wrong but based on what i understood, there is multi-facet to his trades...
i am thinking this is what happened when we were around the top of 125SPY he bought dec 17 spy 125 put for around $2.60-$2.55 range.. and he sold 125 SPY for dec 09 around the low of the day for $2.10 - $2.19 .. so its for total of debit of $0.50 .. but the best part of this trade is following. he has no capital outlay except $0.50/contract. [ nothing on margin :D ]
if we close below SPY 125 for both weeks he would still get the dividend of $0.90 so he would be $0.40 ahead .... [ that is if he is keeping them to expiration ]
otherwise he can close the spreads for more than $0.50 his actual outlay... [ its already like 1.03 :D ] ... 0.53 profit :D ... this margin will get wider by monday because of theta... [ this is all i could figure out so far there might be more to this trade :D ]
Al_Dente wrote:Paging cougar:

Dude: your nickname “newbie_77” makes absolutely no sense
Unless by that u mean u are a newbie that started in 1977
I’m going to have to start paying A LOT MORE attention to your posts
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Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby BlackThought » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:56 pm

Petsamo wrote:
KENA wrote:I think the mkt may be in trouble..We can't break yesterdays hi or todays hi but we have 25 min to go so lets see.

The market's in trouble just because we had a down day?


the market is in trouble because it failed to break the trendline today.
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Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby juankim » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:53 pm

Dow Trader wrote:This what I don't see traders focusing in weekly candle and daily candles and I prefered to post it just in case
a clear support resistance in candles patterns can be shown in many setups and this is one of them :
an undecided cadle or more followed by 2 candle with both of them have more 50% from there high to low high and I highlited some examples that I traded them for long time before ... they act most of the time correctly specially with the first visit and market can overshoot them but if you know how to trade them with proper stops it would be very trading tool IMO

note : resistance is resistance until proven otherwise 8-)


DT,

I am fascinated by your 'old school' methods of longer term (weekly) analysis, as I've been focusing on swing trades. Finding out that I don't have the temperament (read: lack of discipline) for day trading :( Forgive me but for some reason I'm not quite getting your method from this chart (not the brightest 'candle' in the room... yes, pun intended). Would it be possible for you to lend a remedial chart reading assistance?

Is your definition of an 'undecided' candle predicated upon touching/crossing the resistance line? Also, unsure how to process the '50% from their high to low high' - does this refer to the open/close of the previous 'undecided' candle or to each other? More importantly, I'm unable to discern the follow-on pattern after the highlighted examples.

Would greatly appreciate any additional info/insights, in helping a TRUE newbie (as opposed to the other guy who decoded Cougar's strategy) :D
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Re: 12/01/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:11 pm

soku wrote:
StrikePrice wrote:
Buckethead wrote:Markets don't extend volatility over long periods of time like this in bull markets. It's easy to say in 12 months that the prev 12 months was a bear market when indices are down net large %'s

SB73 wrote:This is not a bull market, this is not a bear market. Although when I asked my daughter with crayons to tell me if it was going up or down she drew a line up and then down and then up and then down. I suppose tonight it will be up again, but tomorrow it may be down.


Really?

So how do explain 1998 and 1999? That wasn't a Bull Market while the VIX was above 30?

there were bunch of comparison between 1998 and 2011. i think in 1998 the only time vix over 30 was during july to oct, a bear rally took over 30%. when we talked about y2k bull market, we usually started from nov 1998.

I think the comparison is closer to 2007/8 than 1998. In 1998 the economy was strong and we were in the midst of the Internet bubble.

In 2007/8 we had problems in the banking sector and madcap efforts by the Fed trying to keep the housing bubble from imploding.
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