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01/16/2020 Live Update

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:59 am

From the BBC:
Loser: Farmers and manufacturers
The new deal commits China to boost purchases in manufacturing, services, agriculture and energy from 2017 levels by $200bn over two years.
Mr Trump has said that could include as $50bn worth of agricultural goods a year.
But other officials have put the figure lower and analysts are sceptical. So far, the primary effect on business has been pain.
Farmers, who have been targeted by China's tariffs, have seen bankruptcies soar, prompting a $28bn federal bailout.
Among manufacturers, the Federal Reserve has found employment losses, stemming from the higher import costs and China's retaliation.
Over the long-term, American firms may reroute supply chains away from China to avoid the tariffs - but that's an expensive prospect.

As Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway adds: "A lot of American farmers are going to be disappointed with this trade agreement. Soybean prices are plummeting after the deal failed to include a specific $ amount for China's purchases of U.S. soy. All this just a few months before planting season!"
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:01 pm

Wishful thinking. I am on the red.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:06 pm

Al_Dente wrote:From the BBC:
Loser: Farmers and manufacturers
The new deal commits China to boost purchases in manufacturing, services, agriculture and energy from 2017 levels by $200bn over two years.
Mr Trump has said that could include as $50bn worth of agricultural goods a year.
But other officials have put the figure lower and analysts are sceptical. So far, the primary effect on business has been pain.
Farmers, who have been targeted by China's tariffs, have seen bankruptcies soar, prompting a $28bn federal bailout.
Among manufacturers, the Federal Reserve has found employment losses, stemming from the higher import costs and China's retaliation.
Over the long-term, American firms may reroute supply chains away from China to avoid the tariffs - but that's an expensive prospect.

As Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway adds: "A lot of American farmers are going to be disappointed with this trade agreement. Soybean prices are plummeting after the deal failed to include a specific $ amount for China's purchases of U.S. soy. All this just a few months before planting season!"

today's economic calendar release, so far they are not that bad.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Mr. BachNut » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:13 pm

Bonus chart...

Been talking a lot (too much...) about gaps.
Gaps in the ES future are comparatively rare compared to the underlying index.
The contract is traded pretty continuously, only closed briefly at the end of the day and over the weekend.
Rarer still is an ES gap that doesn't get closed eventually.

So, this bull channel with three open gaps is a sight to see.

ES 011619.jpg
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:32 pm

Rob Hanna:
"In the last 67 trading days, there have only been 5 closes below the 10ma for SPX. There has not been a 67-day period with only 5 closes below the 10ma since 1972. And looking back to 1928 (when the S&P 500 was 90), there have only been 6 other instances:
https://quantifiableedges.com/the-remar ... -qe-rally/
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:39 pm

C/P Index Long Opening Undervalued PUTS Twice Calls = DOWN

Two/Three C/P Long Opening Sentiment Indicators = DOWN DOWN

Extreme Greed Falling Fear/Greed 88 = DOWN

Negative $TICK = DOWN
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USI-TICK/

$TRIN > 1 = DOWN

$SPX SELLING Below 3,317.11 (edit)

Fed folly does not an eternal bull make
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

In the land of the blind
The one-eyed man is king

"One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day'
Last edited by Heck on Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:23 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Remembering Apple sucesses and Google non-successes

Postby K447 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:47 pm

BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:59 pm


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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:08 pm

Consolidation so breakout is more likely.
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Re: Remembering Apple sucesses and Google non-successes

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:08 pm

K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?

any new hot product have a cycle, Apple need new product line once this Airpod are peak in sales.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:24 pm

lots of spinning today, spinning top comes to mind.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:31 pm

ES 5. Down beneath the EMA 20. Trying to break out of the range.


2020-01-16_0930.png
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Re: Remembering Apple successes and Google non-successes

Postby K447 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:42 pm

BullBear52x wrote:
K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?

any new hot product have a cycle, Apple need new product line once this Airpod are peak in sales.


You want to bet (right now?) against Apple creating ANOTHER (or more likely, several more) successful products in the coming years?

Let alone the ongoing success of existing products? iPhone continues to be a marvel of profit and consistency. iPad, Mac soldier onwards with consistent sales and profit. For years.

Regarding AirPods, Apple literally cannot make them fast enough to meet demand. And they are making a LOT, around the clock. Will it eventually level out? Of course, but that level may be a lot higher than you are suggesting. And then generate huge consistent profits for years. Talk about an annuity. These things have a finite in-service lifespan AND people love them.

The stock is not the company. Apple is hugely profitable and shall contnue to be so. It makes products that people buy, in huge numbers. And keep doing so.

If you want to short the stock because it 'seems high', go right ahead. But do not rely upon imaginary 'fundamental' issues with the products or corporate execution that do not exist.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:56 pm

XLRE. Another good day. Same with IYR.

AAPL? Nice products. I still have the original iPad, and the original Bondi Blue iMac (oops, I forgot I gave it away), not taking up too much space. I had an iPhone too, but now use android cell phones. For a desktop, however, I use PCs. AAPL's fundamentals look very good still. I did think it would suffer in the absence of Steve Jobs; not so.


XLRE.png


2020-01-16_1001.png
Last edited by JFR on Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:03 pm

It's a perfect breakout pattern now, so still breakout is more likely.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:07 pm

RSI (5) on weekly > 95 reading. we should get a week pull back soon. ways too happy out there. CPC < .8 3 days in a row so far.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:22 pm

I would not expect much of a pull back until the lower wedge breached.
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:34 pm

AAPL, ain't turning back, it can't. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:54 pm

look at your $TICK, bull trap
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Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:59 pm

ES 5. Pulling back from a higher level of resistance.


2020-01-16_1058.png
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