Cobra's Market View

Up 2 weeks in a row, 76% chances higher high ahead the next week, so still some up rooms looks like.

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday Week Trading Mixed since 1998, But Improving Lately
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/1903 ... ding-mixed

Another classic contrary indicator.

From "It is what it is department", Key focus "Complacent" when it is "too good to be true" it is time to read the fine print.
I use EMA (5) on $CPC to measure the extreme level on complacency in the market. It is common wisdom that market is complacent when $CPC drop < .8 (very bullish). by using MA it gave a clear depth of how deep or how long the $CPC were in that state. from a contrarian view, the majority always wrong. let's look at what lead to the final stage when the Rug is pulled.extreme conditions came in many flavors. We are at extreme moment or aren't we?. first sign of market turn is Fear "No Fear No Bear" it will be hard to find fear when market is at all time high so the best thing to do at this moment is wait and see, $VIX at current level is no go for bear until its daily MACD turned positive at the minimum. the chart below I show SPX overlay the $VIX's MACD Hist. when combine that to trend line, bulls got nothing to worry, just to keep in mind that this can change overnight. For now uptrend had not change.next question is What the early sign that change $IVX? look no further than its own volatility. $VVIX. Here too, trend line is key but now for short term we can narrow down the peak mood of the market. for short term swing it should be no surprise to see level of volatility to be high in coming week(s) and that's when the fear will rise now that it shows on histogram. so, be careful out there. I am more bearish bias this week than last week, bottom line Only Price Pays, and pay attention to the trend.Short term , I will continue my honey hole sell the rip out side of the band intraday, as you can see here the $TIRN has been above 1 for few days now, this also tells me that the rally is nothing more than shorts covering. the last hour wall to run at the closed is not bullish weak shorts running for cover, especially out side of band area. ( Cobra will tell you more up statistically). Have a wonderful long weekend, Peace!

MY UNDERSTANDING IMO: It appears that Hedge Funds and others are too heavily leveraged. “Hence the need for an emergency liquidity intervention by the Fed.”
Is it different this time? Well, in 2008 nobody would bail out Lehman. Visualize that as the first bit of ice scrapping across the hull of the Titanic.
Today, the biggest guy on the planet (the FED) is bailing out (via the Repo market) the hedge funds and banks, et al. Visualize that as the FED plugging all the subsequent holes in the Titanic.
Will it work? Yes, until the FED stops, or something explodes.
Better read it yourselves, via the link below.

THE FACTS OF THE REPO CRISIS, SUMMARIZED:
1) The repo crisis was the result of a liquidity shortfall at the "Top 4" banks, precipitated by JPMorgan's drain of over $100BN in repo market liquidity (a wise move, which eventually forced the Fed to launch QE4, and helped JPM report its most profitable year on record)
2) The Fed addressed the "supply side" of the Sept repo crisis by injecting over $400BN in liquidity to replenish bank reserve levels, first via repo and then via T-Bill POMO, i.e., QE4.
3) The Fed has yet to address the "demand side" of the Sept repo crisis, namely the market transmission mechanism which is intermediated by hedge funds. And it is here that, as the WSJ reported, the Fed is currently contemplating providing liquidity directly to hedge funds to prevent a systemic collapse during the next repo crisis, whenever it may strike.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/944-t ... edge-funds

Here’s one for the record books:
This month the $USHL blew the roof off the MONTHLY chart.
You’d have to go back 17 years to see anything near this (not on this chart).
e.g.: May 2007 the USHL was approximately 725. Dec 2003 it was approximately 720;
At the moment it is 859 and the month isn’t finished yet.
Net-New Highs are extreme. There is a remote chance that stockcharts is wrong, and it will reprice Monday. Keep checking.

stockcharts members vote here, today and Monday's holiday:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

EARNINGS REPORTS
Monday, Jan 20, Happy Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Tuesday, Jan 21: IBM, NFLX,
Wednesday, Jan 22: JNJ, TXN
Thursday, Jan 23: PG, TRV, CMCSA, UNP, INTC, ETFC, INTC
Friday, Jan 24: AXP