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Weekend Watering Hole

Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:53 am

Where is every body? gone fishing? I am heading that way soon.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:11 pm

This time lets look at a little further out what the chart pattern is telling us, here is why 130 SPY is important
spy.JPG
here I use MACD Hist. to gauge the strength , so far on schedule to number 6, I will pay attention to MACD, no turning allowed from this point until break out of 130
spy1.JPG
lets zoom in what happen on Sept of last year. at this juncture it gap up break out runaway never look back, will this time be the same? this is third time of this reversal pattern by the ways.
spy5.JPG
OK now here is where we really are, Trend is up, buy the dip or continuation play is still on. I expect a pull back to 5 dma area and heading back higher. if a pull back below 123.5 that will be a trend change dip buyer will have to be really careful this time.
spy1a.JPG
and here the yellow zone if we fall I hope to see good support at 123.5, wish me a catch, GLTA
spy2.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby KENA » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:42 pm

Hi BB52x..Not going fishing the seasons are mostly closed. Just doing some reading.I had a hard time staying with it last week.Right now because of the season I am leaning more on the bullish side but I guess I read to many of the bearish comments on the site during trading.I think we will have another push up to the 1260/70 area ( maybe monday )and then a pull back but not a drastic one.We may see some green moves from the middle of the month to year end and closing the year near the 200ma.Most of my trading is fairly well set in the first 2 hr's. then I do stock research to find stocks to go short or long for future use.I guess I am going to hold back reading to much of the sites comments when I feel a little bullish.I am bearish for the intermediate and long term right now.I enjoy your charts they are one of a kind. That's to bad that COBRA has not been able to get very many donations for the amount of people reading and logging into his site. Maybe things will get better. Hope so because it takes a lot of time to make up an unbised report. I guess Nuff said and as usual wait and see.Have good fishing today.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby rockfish » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:18 pm

Hi Cobra - my 1st time logging into this site. I paid my $10 monthly donation earlier this week. I really enjoy the content that you provide. The google map that shows where all your subscribers are located is facinating - you are world famous - but I knew that before the map told me
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby jarbo456 » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:42 pm

i wrote on the regular board that the bearish candlestick on friday seems too obvious to actually come to fruition. that's not really exact TA, but more of a rumination.

i wanted to know if anyone follows evilspeculator.com and has a review for it. i have my opinion, but wanted to see what you all good Cobra people think.

i'll be back later this weekend.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:47 pm

Comparing SPX to a diversified basket of European stocks.
Below that, comparing our USA bank basket to a European bank basket.
At the bottom, I’ve added emerging mkts for comparison, as BB52x mentioned EEM weakness at Fri close.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$E1DOW ... =249095647

This chart shows the astonishingly high correlation between ALL the symbols charted above vs the $SPX.
(A few scattered pink arrows show that this currently high correlation was not always the case).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... listNum=15

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQemvyyJ--g
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:50 pm

Friday was some kind of significant day, a major intraday internals dump that I haven’t seen in a quite while… yes, perhaps it was just a one day “fluke”, etc.
Recall that Central Bank intervention has certainly offered quite a powerful trampoline over the past few years, and cannot be ignored.

PAGING Baron von BullBear52x, please consider re-posting your chart that I remember from months(?) ago, the one with DBV(?) calling out the central bank inflection points over the past few years.
…..Okay, fine, I’ll admit it, I do watch your charts very carefully, as often as I can (I just like to give you a hard time).
…. more tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apdaZfYI ... re=related
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:01 pm

GM!
Quite interesting Friday…
Considering several criteria I should be tempted to say that a reversal has been technically announced!

SPX geometry shows rejection at the ARC.
A strong resistance, followed by reversal, was also encountered at the FAN line, on the 130 min chart
Attachments
GEOM.GIF
SPX130.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:02 pm

Jarbo: I found that site evilspeculator.com last year when it was all free.
I was attracted by their wacky iconoclasm, and as you know, I like wackadoooos.
I recall getting a couple of good ideas from them, but can’t even remember now what they were.
I haven't checked them in months; thanks for reminding me; more homework for tomorrow.
Sorry I can’t be more helpful.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby jarbo456 » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:04 pm

Al_Dente wrote:Jarbo: I found that site evilspeculator.com last year when it was all free.
I was attracted by their wacky iconoclasm, and as you know, I like wackadoooos.
I recall getting a couple of good ideas from them, but can’t even remember now what they were.
I haven't checked them in months; thanks for reminding me; more homework for tomorrow.
Sorry I can’t be more helpful.


thanks for your answer at least. i was just curious as to what people here thought about them.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:07 pm

During the afternoon SPY was contained in a descending channel…only to close with a “bearish whipsaw” in which selling on large volume was predominant…
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SPY1M.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby ocassional observer » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:19 pm

well, i've learned 2 truths (again) this week:
1. don't be greedy.
2. don't fight the fed(s).

so i'm scrapping the 2008 similarities here. what i see now is a triangle, which looks bullish chartwise, but weak internally (remember the negative money flow?).
the weekly view:
(this is from cobra's weekly chart, since i'm a cheap bustard who doesn't want to pay stockcharts)
spx weekly 3 dec 11.jpg

the down trend line around 1260 is supported by the 200d sma, and the 50w sma.
the daily view:
spx daily 3 dec 11.jpg

the daily chart shows that if the trend line breaks a quick move to 1300-1320 is possible. however, such a move will most likely create negative divergences both on the macd and the money flow indicators.
if the pullback will not be shallow than 1225 and 1210 seem as strong support lines.

fundamentally, the PMI reports for november shows continued weakness across the globe with global manafacturing decreasing in a second month in a row, with europe leading the weakness, while the us remains a relative sunshine. i believe earnings margin are declining and earnings will follow not far afterwards.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:21 pm

VIX reentered timidly inside the Acceleration Band while TVIX gave a confirmed intraday BUY signal:
Attachments
VIXgif.GIF
TVIXgif.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:25 pm

$DXY bounced "technically":
Attachments
dxy.GIF
$DXY square
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:28 pm

Have a nice afternoon guys!
I am going out to play in the snow!
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby dcurban1 » Sat Dec 03, 2011 4:27 pm

Going to talk about the US Dollar-Gold correlation in Monday's analysis but here are some interesting US Dollar charts.

120511 usd.JPG


120511 usd pf.JPG


Interesting to see a long-term point and figure chart of the US Dollar showing the decline. It puts into perspective how far the US Dollar has fallen.

In terms of a bull market? Not yet, we have that trendline which will be a significant resistance level.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby KENA » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:31 pm

Just reviewed Dorsey Wright P & F charts..Both the S & P and World BP turned to X on Fri. and the NYSEBP only has 1 1/2 % to go to X plus the 10 and 30 and the NDX turned to X during last week. This supports the theory of a green December ( maybe ). So lets see.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby heavenskrow » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:07 pm

Took almost 4 hours to do a complete weekend update.... be prepared for a lot of charts: :D
http://heavenskrowinvestments.blogspot. ... again.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby Petsamo » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:10 pm

dcurban1 wrote:Going to talk about the US Dollar-Gold correlation in Monday's analysis but here are some interesting US Dollar charts.

120511 usd.JPG


120511 usd pf.JPG


Interesting to see a long-term point and figure chart of the US Dollar showing the decline. It puts into perspective how far the US Dollar has fallen.

In terms of a bull market? Not yet, we have that trendline which will be a significant resistance level.

Carl Swenlin talks about the dollar too at his site, and I'm a little confused. He points out that the dollar has a double top, which implies that the dollar will decline. But he says the dollar is going to rise. Image
So, I guess if the dollar rallies, the SPX will drop.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby heavenskrow » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:29 pm

Petsamo wrote:
dcurban1 wrote:Going to talk about the US Dollar-Gold correlation in Monday's analysis but here are some interesting US Dollar charts.

120511 usd.JPG


120511 usd pf.JPG


Interesting to see a long-term point and figure chart of the US Dollar showing the decline. It puts into perspective how far the US Dollar has fallen.

In terms of a bull market? Not yet, we have that trendline which will be a significant resistance level.

Carl Swenlin talks about the dollar too at his site, and I'm a little confused. He points out that the dollar has a double top, which implies that the dollar will decline. But he says the dollar is going to rise. Image
So, I guess if the dollar rallies, the SPX will drop.


If you look at my update, Dollar couldnt break weekly RSI resistance and also got killed at the 187 SMA. But yes if dollar rallies SPX can drop...but if the dollar dies again, we get a rally.
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