Weekend Watering Hole

[cougar]

VIX reentered timidly inside the Acceleration Band while TVIX gave a confirmed intraday BUY signal:

Cougar, I know many people see $VIX as over sold, see my MACD I see no turn sign yet. this is one hour.

U R right. “Oversold” doesn’t mean much, until PRICE gives some signs of moving up. Indeed, your MACD is not moving either. There is no clear BUY yet. I use the TVIX behavior at critical levels more as a sentiment gauge, since sometimes it moves before the VIX. The VIX itself is ”timid”.
We shall see…
===========
I know you are interested in IWM. Here is an updated and recently enhanced daily chart, which probably offers better “punctuations“…

[Al_Dente]

Baron von BB: thanks for central bank intervention chart. One question: what is BOJ?
One observation (if I’m reading it correctly/I can’t read your months): interesting how each intervention produced a SPX/DBV spike that just couldn’t reach the high of April 2011 (meaning each intervention spike was short lived… then SPX gets weaker (?) That’s pretty bearish if you ask me.)

After a two-second glance at this chart, if anyone here believes that Greece is near being fixed, please post and explain.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW ... listNum=15

PS: Cougie: I’ve double checked the T2126 link and it works okay for me. Not important, as it just confirms the bull diverg of the stockcharts.com link below that… BUT THAT’S AN INTERMEDIATE TERM BULL DIVERG, NOT A SHORT TERM. Plus you have ADVND (100) on your platform and I don’t (thanks for that), my closest match is that T2126…(I think?)
PPS: I translate your “organized distribution” as a short term sell signal… I agree, very short term like intraday (based on Friday), but anything can happen tomorrow…Here’s my intraday QQQ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... =241781854

Here’s one for your harmonics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lMT6xiN ... re=related

[BullBear52x]

VIX reentered timidly inside the Acceleration Band while TVIX gave a confirmed intraday BUY signal:

Cougar, I know many people see $VIX as over sold, see my MACD I see no turn sign yet. this is one hour.

U R right. “Oversold” doesn’t mean much, until PRICE gives some signs of moving up. Indeed, your MACD is not moving either. There is no clear BUY yet. I use the TVIX behavior at critical levels more as a sentiment gauge, since sometimes it moves before the VIX. The VIX itself is ”timid”.
We shall see…
===========
I know you are interested in IWM. Here is an updated and recently enhanced daily chart, which probably offers better “punctuations“…

Thanks, IWM, EEM, and SPY are my main focus these days/

[BullBear52x]

Baron von BB: thanks for central bank intervention chart. One question: what is BOJ?
One observation (if I’m reading it correctly/I can’t read your months): interesting how each intervention produced a SPX/DBV spike that just couldn’t reach the high of April 2011 (meaning each intervention spike was short lived… then SPX gets weaker (?) That’s pretty bearish if you ask me.)

After a two-second glance at this chart, if anyone here believes that Greece is near being fixed, please post and explain.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW ... listNum=15

PS: Cougie: I’ve double checked the T2126 link and it works okay for me. Not important, as it just confirms the bull diverg of the stockcharts.com link below that… BUT THAT’S AN INTERMEDIATE TERM BULL DIVERG, NOT A SHORT TERM. Plus you have ADVND (100) on your platform and I don’t (thanks for that), my closest match is that T2126…(I think?)
PPS: I translate your “organized distribution” as a short term sell signal… I agree, very short term like intraday (based on Friday), but anything can happen tomorrow…Here’s my intraday QQQ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... =241781854

Here’s one for your harmonics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lMT6xiN ... re=related

BOJ is Bank of Japan, intervention after the earthquake.

[Al_Dente]

i wrote on the regular board that the bearish candlestick on friday seems too obvious to actually come to fruition. that's not really exact TA, but more of a rumination.

JAR: I see the SPX/SPY red Friday candles as reversal candles, which is candlestick TA for “ruh rho”…(imho)
Then, I just finished reading King Cobra… he called Friday a “Bearish Reversal Day.”
Yea, I know, wait and see mode, one more push up, etc. etc…. but then OMG “Intermediate-Term: Expect Multiple Weeks Selling Ahead…”
I love it when he talks dirty like that…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEW2aEazNCQ

[jimme]

This might make for an interesting evening...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/ ... CQ20111204

[dcurban1]

Baron von BB: thanks for central bank intervention chart. One question: what is BOJ?
One observation (if I’m reading it correctly/I can’t read your months): interesting how each intervention produced a SPX/DBV spike that just couldn’t reach the high of April 2011 (meaning each intervention spike was short lived… then SPX gets weaker (?) That’s pretty bearish if you ask me.)

After a two-second glance at this chart, if anyone here believes that Greece is near being fixed, please post and explain.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW ... listNum=15

PS: Cougie: I’ve double checked the T2126 link and it works okay for me. Not important, as it just confirms the bull diverg of the stockcharts.com link below that… BUT THAT’S AN INTERMEDIATE TERM BULL DIVERG, NOT A SHORT TERM. Plus you have ADVND (100) on your platform and I don’t (thanks for that), my closest match is that T2126…(I think?)
PPS: I translate your “organized distribution” as a short term sell signal… I agree, very short term like intraday (based on Friday), but anything can happen tomorrow…Here’s my intraday QQQ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... =241781854

Here’s one for your harmonics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lMT6xiN ... re=related

Got a better Greek chart for you.

1 year bond yield at 343.8%. Yes you read that right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[Al_Dente]

DCURBAN1
I rarely get over to your site, so I appreciate u posting here.
RE: Dollar… IMHO: it FAILED at double top… (“almost” works in horseshoes and grenades, “failed” at double top is what happened to $USD).
I have $USD on a “daily” sell signal (but just barely), and an intraday buy signal.
Friday UUP albeit green, turned away at gap resistance. It will be an interesting week. Here’s my $ daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =247550059

JIMMIE
I like your dollar charts, especially the 60min and the downtrend lines, however it looked like the accumulation/distribution line hit a HIGH last week
… so whom do you think is telling the “truth”. Quit “dickin” around and please keep us posted.
(FYI: just to set the record straight, If I had to choose a religion, I choose Buddhism… I don’t go to “church”.. we just kid around here…. maybe too much… as too many wars have been fought over religion. I like them all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHhyyRByuJ0

[Al_Dente]

DD is a MUST for anyone interested in these names. I will NEVER post any fundamental opinions here.

Yo Cougie, I got a hankerin’ for some good fundamental analysis. Have u got any good fundamentals there?
Also, I need translation of the word “snow”. Thanks very much.

For the 99% (parental advisory / language) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Pr5o8AAc0

[jimme]

DCURBAN1
I rarely get over to your site, so I appreciate u posting here.
RE: Dollar… IMHO: it FAILED at double top… (“almost” works in horseshoes and grenades, “failed” at double top is what happened to $USD).
I have $USD on a “daily” sell signal (but just barely), and an intraday buy signal.
Friday UUP albeit green, turned away at gap resistance. It will be an interesting week. Here’s my $ daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =247550059

JIMMIE
I like your dollar charts, especially the 60min and the downtrend lines, however it looked like the accumulation/distribution line hit a HIGH last week
… so whom do you think is telling the “truth”. Quit “dickin” around and please keep us posted.
(FYI: just to set the record straight, If I had to choose a religion, I choose Buddhism… I don’t go to “church”.. we just kid around here…. maybe too much… as too many wars have been fought over religion. I like them all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHhyyRByuJ0

Al
Humor is a huge part of me. You will find this as time passes. My opinion of the /DX is it will get to 80.43 quite soon and will take a rest from there. I have stated here that I plan to buy GLD at 161. GLD also has a long term line and a bounce up from there might get it right out of the triangle it's in. So it's simple and where I have my money. The dollar goes up gold comes down with the S+P, I sell my SDS and buy GLD calls. Carry on, my friend. jimme: )))

[cougar]

Hey Al!
You got right the harmonics…That’s it! From there to charts there is only that small step…
Also, great to remember JL, who is still so much alive in my memories.
I was referring to real snow, the one that makes my huskies so happy…Don’t you know that Aspen, CO is the snow capital of the US?

Now…back to harmonics and charts…here is an example of “harmonicity” and “synchronicity” - rules established by J. M. Hurst for the study of time cycles:

In the case of VIX, on this daily Volpinacci chart we should notice:
- the price versus BB. It dropped slightly under the BB three days in a row, but closed inside it every single time. Older market technicians consider such a pattern as heralding a significant VIX move….(P>66% UP).
- the May - Jul grand “Head and Shoulders” was the result of summing cycles (an effect also explained by Hurst) and which confirms that Volpinacci (besides being a great espresso machine) got the right cycles and knows how to handle Fourier Series.
NOW, if all that stuff has some truth to it…we should be in the time zone of a “nest of lows” (i.e. coinciding troughs of the 3 cycles). Pretty clear, no?! So, let us now look at what happened to VIX after it reached the previous 2 “nests of lows” around Feb 6-8 and Jul 6-8...
Hmm!
========================
[For simplicity, several good signals delivered by these cycles are not represented on this chart but the viewer can reconstruct them, as an exercise.]

[cougar]

One more thing: on the daily VIX chart (above) the MACD used has a “Fast Fibo” configuration: 3, 8, 13.
It might be ready to turn upward…

[Al_Dente]

Yo espresso mariachi cougar:
I know VIX is signaling SPY top/near top because it pierced the lower bolinger band and because you and my eyeballs and Cobra said so.
Last two years the VIX pierced lower bb 6 times by my watch, but the VIX pierce rarely hits spy top smack-on, sometimes the “real” top comes 4-15 days later… so for the moment let’s call the VIX pierce “toppish” or perhaps “topiary”. (Also, “it dropped slightly” below bb counts as a full on bolinger pierce, even if it “closed inside.” And I also noticed that your Friday VIX needed a blue crane/hydraulic jack to hold it up.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... listNum=15

I see yr “love nest of lows” which were the may/july piercing at 3/6 days before the highs, depending on yada yada yada…. preceding the ginormous move up vix/down spy which does not imply a repeat.
Here’s my simple focus: intraday 30min VIX which I’m more concerned with for DT, and I’m looking for divergences intraday, aka I would like to see the VIX make low-ish when SPY makes highs, and vice versa, otherwise divergence. Now I’m making the dollar and bonds do overtime by adding them at the bottom to look for confirmation/non-confirmation from them too. Note in this chart ALL the dotted lines indicate divergence. (The inverted SPY behind VIX is just so my old eyeballs can read divergences easier).
As you can see we tipped over a bit on Friday…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =250178858
As an aside: did you notice IBM Friday hit a new high on an arguably bearish daily candlestick and a neg diverg. All by its lonesome???? GOOG not yet, AAPL not, AMZN cant even get out of bed, etc

PS: Do you have husky pets or a working team? Gorgeous.
I watched the Iditarod once in AK but that was long ago and far away and just thinking of it makes me hella cold.
Here’s another for you and the baron, my favorite Mariachi Brothers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObDWtMQ9 ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

Al...Humor is a huge part of me. You will find this as time passes. My opinion of the /DX is it will get to 80.43 quite soon and will take a rest from there. I have stated here that I plan to buy GLD at 161. GLD also has a long term line and a bounce up from there might get it right out of the triangle it's in. So it's simple and where I have my money. The dollar goes up gold comes down with the S+P, I sell my SDS and buy GLD calls. Carry on, my friend. jimme: )))

JIMME: Dollar $80 is downright spooky [it's only a minute away]. A while back I was musing on “what ifs” specifically, what if the dollar went back to near/exactly where it was in Mar ’09 and June ’10…. Then where would SPY (in green) be, etc. etc.
I don’t like to post hypothetical charts, lacking any time frame, and smelling a bit like too much eggnog, but you made me do it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =243570769

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B1oIcTh ... re=related

[jimme]

Al...Humor is a huge part of me. You will find this as time passes. My opinion of the /DX is it will get to 80.43 quite soon and will take a rest from there. I have stated here that I plan to buy GLD at 161. GLD also has a long term line and a bounce up from there might get it right out of the triangle it's in. So it's simple and where I have my money. The dollar goes up gold comes down with the S+P, I sell my SDS and buy GLD calls. Carry on, my friend. jimme: )))

JIMME: Dollar $80 is downright spooky [it's only a minute away]. A while back I was musing on “what ifs” specifically, what if the dollar went back to near/exactly where it was in Mar ’09 and June ’10…. Then where would SPY (in green) be, etc. etc.
I don’t like to post hypothetical charts, lacking any time frame, and smelling a bit like too much eggnog, but you made me do it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =243570769

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B1oIcTh ... re=related

Al, Someone on this board, I think it is Dow Trader or something like that often says "Trade what you see". Go to Stockcharts free and click on US Market overview. On the candleglance page you will see a daily chart of $USD. Looking at the chart, would you buy it or sell it. What you see is what you should do. KISS works! This last week has been the most UNEXPLAINABLE, REASONLESS, I have ever seen. I am short from Wednesday and added on the Friday mid-day flag. Good trading to you, my friend, and carry on.