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Weekend Watering Hole

Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby rhight » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:36 pm

Thanks for the charts weekenders, and Cobra for hosting.
Don't look now, but the market (SPX) just gained / lost 100 points. I took a lunch break and missed it. I feel somewhat lucky to have made 60 inverse points in the last couple of weeks, and somehow decided to close my shorts on 11/25. The light down volume made me nervous, and the pattern target at 1165 had been reached.

My particular system didn't issue a buy until 11/29. Even so, I'm still not long because I couldn't find a low risk set-up. V bottoms are difficult for me to trade. Now, after price has rocketed up in no time, it faces a quadruple dose of substantial over-head resistance (horizontal, down trend, 200DMA, and Fib cluster).

Note that in late October, price closed 2 days above the 200DMA, and in the second week of November it only closed 1 day above the 200DMA. If that pattern continues, then we will close 0 days above the 200DMA this time :lol: A minor retrace to, let's say 1220, will probably be bought and then we'll see if we can break the 200DMA and a possible new cyclical down trend from the July highs, and hold. The secular down trend is up around 1325. Are we going to make it? Don't ask me, I'm just looking for the next set-up. I'm not even sure that the intermediate down trend (from late October) is over.
Last edited by rhight on Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby dcurban1 » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:43 pm

Here is a snippit for what I think will happen if the dollar starts falling.

First, a move lower for the Dollar will spark gold and silver prices pushing them higher along with mining stocks, many of which are poised for a breakout.

Second, a falling Dollar means a rising Euro which is not what the EU needs at this point in time. The EU needs a weaker Euro to spur export growth. A strong Euro will lead to slower economic growth and with the EU tipping into a recession, problems with the PIGS, and a banking sector on life support it does not bode well for the global economy.

Europe needs a weak Euro to help jumpstart export markets.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby heavenskrow » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:54 pm

Also from my good friend Kimble. Dollar and Sp500 is never 100% inverse correlation.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby ActiveTrader » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:15 pm

rhight wrote:Thanks for the charts weekenders, and Cobra for hosting.
Don't look now, but the market (SPX) just gained / lost 100 points. I took a lunch break and missed it. I feel somewhat lucky to have made 60 inverse points in the last couple of weeks, and somehow decided to close my shorts on 11/25. The light down volume made me nervous, and the pattern target at 1165 had been reached.
SPX 12-02-11 Weekly Report 60min.png

My particular system didn't issue a buy until 11/29. Even so, I'm still not long because I couldn't find a low risk set-up. V bottoms are difficult for me to trade. Now, after price has rocketed up in no time, it faces a quadruple dose of substantial over-head resistance (horizontal, down trend, 200DMA, and Fib cluster).
SPX 12-02-11 Daily 6 month.png

Note that in late October, price closed 2 days above the 200DMA, and in the second week of November it only closed 1 day above the 200DMA. If that pattern continues, then we will close 0 days above the 200DMA this time :lol: A minor retrace to, let's say 1220, will probably be bought and then we'll see if we can break the 200DMA and a possible new cyclical down trend from the July highs, and hold. The secular down trend is up around 1325. Are we going to make it? Don't ask me, I'm just looking for the next set-up. I'm not even sure that the intermediate down trend (from late October) is over.

You are spot on in my opinion. This market has not presented any low risk swing trade entries for many months. The "reversals" always come hard and fast from nowhere, and never does a proper retest of the swing low or high. This market simply is not trade-able from low risk swing trading perspective. What happened to positive/negative divergences on daily charts? They seem like ancient history. :mrgreen:
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby taggard » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:28 pm

(1) as for next week being key it very well could be re euro zone. there is a lot of cynicism over the reactions of ECB etc suggesting people expect more bogus actions that really won't solve a thing. you see this sort of thing even in the mass media now. What i would urge people to balance the bogus nature of the moves of the EuroDudes and the FedDudes is the power of desperation.

again the banks in the euro zone are right on the edge--it really is important to all concerned in the establishment over there to have a good end to the year. year end accounting is serious stuff. there is more room to fudge on a quarter by quarter basis. Do not underestimate the possible "stabilization" pressure on the euro dudes and the fed. (eg one way or another for whatever reason the market cannot decline and thus could advance due to machine trading or what have you.)

(2) note the fed meeting the week after this--this time frame is pretty good for a "punt" into the end of the year. the bond action in the last 2 weeks is low. and a lot of fund guys are focused on just hedging whatever they have. if you ignore "reality" and just look at a logical time for "the markets to get bot" or however you like to think about this sort of thing. this is that time.


(3) if Mr. Mayagi happens to read this--last week we talked about a divergence in the $nymo (nyse mcclellan oscillator) and the idea was slap a macd histogram on top (stock math) and a slo sto on the bottom (5 3 so faster than stock)and you have a nice general idea at extremes. this time because the index had gone so low--it looked like next time down would be a divergence--often these setups suggest a generally positive bias for 3-6 weeks.

a look at a chart will show the slo sto peaked (usually this means a decline of some sort in 1-3 days once in awhile its longer but that is the idea. such a move down assuming it was not a 100% wash out would create the pattern we are talking about sometime in the next 10 trading days.

this nymo divergence stuff is like a bus--it gets you close then you have to drag out your 60/15 min data and dial in the move that it is indicating. also the ideal setup is a move just under the last low (on a daily chart)--which washes out all the longs and drags in shorts--that holds.

(4) cobra if you are reading this--i hate to say this--because i really like your general approach--but people are weird about data and analysis . All sort of people are selling trash for 2k a year or more. There stuff has several qualities (1) it is complex so that it's impossible to make an absolute statement. (2) when i have tracked this stuff it's been right at best 50-60% of the time if you are very optimistic about what the supposed call was. The point is for whatever reason people (at least in the usa) have a tendency to believe that "the price of a think dictates it's value". obviously this is absurd--but it's often the case that the image (measurable by the fact that somebody can't afford it) is more the issue than the substance.

this site is a pleasure because it is pretty straight forward and the methodology esp intra day is understandable. also while people can get a bit frisky once in a while egos (of the management and users) are pretty cool.

if only 200 people sign up but they wind up paying 60-120 a month that is 140-280k a year which is a bit more like it. if making money off the board is an issue--then maybe aiming for 500 people paying 100 a month makes sense.

i keep thinking there must be some way to make money in some less direct manner (in addition to the monthly fees). there is a fair amount of juice on this site--it it seems like it's likely to grow over the next 2-3 years. you have put out a lot of juice and are making good calls--something has to come of this--it. we engage with the direct and win with the indirect (see below)

finally if i could make one last suggestion--try to avoid thinking too much about stuff that pisses you off on late thursday and friday. we should always deal with stuff of importance when we are strongest. there is no way we are strongest after working the 5 min for 3-5 days much less posting and all the other stuff you do.

Tien chi frequently gambled on horse races with the princes of ch'i. Sun Pin noticed that the tames of horses did not differ greatly. the horses were of 3 classes first second and third. Observing this Sun Pin said to t'ien chi "you place a bet on this contest your servant can make you win"

Tien chi believed him and agreed with the king and princes on a wager of 1000 pieces of gold on the races. As he was about to put up his money--sun pin siad "match your third string against his first--your best against his second best--your second best against his weakest". the 3 competitions were completed and while T'ien Chi did not win the firs the won the last two and the 1000 pieces of gold"

from the art of war (samuel b griffith translation/intro--i like john minford more--but you are lucky enough to be able to read in the orignal)

thanks for the time and energy Cobra
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:50 pm

Time for a brief review of my “Off-Wall-Street-Conviction-Watch-List”:

In the “hepatitis C “ racket:
* VRUS (Pharmasset) which I declared over 1 month ago as the new star of Biotech was recently bought by GILD for an exorbitant price and was removed from the list.
* The present NEW STAR is INHX (Inhibitex) also mentioned before. It is now going ballistic. A chart here would be simply superfluous.
* VRTX (Vertex) is dropping lower and lower…and has also been removed from the list, for different reasons…

Among “batteries”:
PPO is weak, reflecting the recent “bearishness” in this sector. “Wavy-gravy” looking bad too…
MXWL was badly beaten - with the help of those pseudo-tech-analysts who do not know the difference between a battery and a capacitor…It is now recovering and I have a “strong hold” on it.

Three additional biotechs with potential: MELA, VRX & AMRN. They also have interesting charts.

Among “new wave energy stocks” CRR was my favorite. Swing-trading it was great…but on Friday it experienced a spectacular drop…which might reflect the fear of earthquakes enhanced by fracing…
It is now at 2x support.

=================
DD is a MUST for anyone interested in these names. I will NEVER post any fundamental opinions here.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:52 pm

PPO:
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PPO.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:56 pm

MXWL: Buy the troughs and sell the resistance lines of the FAN!
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:58 pm

MELA: a technical buy at 4.15.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:00 am

VRX: target in the 51 zone
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:01 am

AMRN:
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:04 am

CRR at 2x support:
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby heavenskrow » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:37 am

cougar wrote:Time for a brief review of my “Off-Wall-Street-Conviction-Watch-List”:

In the “hepatitis C “ racket:
* VRUS (Pharmasset) which I declared over 1 month ago as the new star of Biotech was recently bought by GILD for an exorbitant price and was removed from the list.
* The present NEW STAR is INHX (Inhibitex) also mentioned before. It is now going ballistic. A chart here would be simply superfluous.
* VRTX (Vertex) is dropping lower and lower…and has also been removed from the list, for different reasons…

Among “batteries”:
PPO is weak, reflecting the recent “bearishness” in this sector. “Wavy-gravy” looking bad too…
MXWL was badly beaten - with the help of those pseudo-tech-analysts who do not know the difference between a battery and a capacitor…It is now recovering and I have a “strong hold” on it.

Three additional biotechs with potential: MELA, VRX & AMRN. They also have interesting charts.

Among “new wave energy stocks” CRR was my favorite. Swing-trading it was great…but on Friday it experienced a spectacular drop…which might reflect the fear of earthquakes enhanced by fracing…
It is now at 2x support.

=================
DD is a MUST for anyone interested in these names. I will NEVER post any fundamental opinions here.


VRUS has been very nice to me :D
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby jimme » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:47 am

Hi Everyone,

Thanks for the great STUFF! This is my first attempt to show a chart. There is a lot of talk about the US Dollar. I track the US Dollar Future with the ticker /DX. It is a future similar to /ES that Cobra talks about when showing overnight action in the S+P 500. I have a 20 yr and a 1 yr chart of /DX to show the importance of where it is trading right now. I am interested in what you think of the site they are located. I run a 5 min chart of /DX always. Remember... Dollar up, everything else down and the reverse. If it isn't so, someone is not being truthful. Keep it simple. Buy low and sell high. Have a good week trading and thank all of you for sharing. Updated with a 60 minute chart, a closeup mainly for Al. Al is jealuos because I played sick from church so I could dick around with my charts. He had to go to church.

https://skydrive.live.com/redir.aspx?ci ... 5ipsGiPNUU

Enjoy your weekend,
jimme
Last edited by jimme on Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:37 am

T2126 is the $NDX 100 A/D line which usually follows the QQQs (grey) like a puppy. It just bounced at support (pink is SPX).
[This is a freestockcharts.com screenshot….. I can’t get this at stockcharts.com as they offer only $NAADV/$NADEC and $NAAD all of which are the A/D based on $COMPQ - correct me if I’m wrong - whereas the T2126 is based on the $NDX 100].
http://screencast.com/t/f8koFwcVL3cZ

Recall October when SPX and COMPQ and SOX made lower lows, QQQ and NDX did not, creating a bullish divergence that is still active today.
Further note that today SPX/COMPQ/SOX are still struggling at 200dma resistance, while the Qs are comfortably above 200dma.
Finally note that the $BPNDX (the gold line hiding behind SOX) also offered an October bullish divergence.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... =250153688

Thanks to jimme and all who are posting insightful dollar and bond charts. They'll dick around a bit but they may lead the way, especially the dollar (Friday). I’m still studying those two wenches.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL ... re=related
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:22 pm

KENA wrote:Hi BB52x..Not going fishing the seasons are mostly closed. Just doing some reading.I had a hard time staying with it last week.Right now because of the season I am leaning more on the bullish side but I guess I read to many of the bearish comments on the site during trading.I think we will have another push up to the 1260/70 area ( maybe monday )and then a pull back but not a drastic one.We may see some green moves from the middle of the month to year end and closing the year near the 200ma.Most of my trading is fairly well set in the first 2 hr's. then I do stock research to find stocks to go short or long for future use.I guess I am going to hold back reading to much of the sites comments when I feel a little bullish.I am bearish for the intermediate and long term right now.I enjoy your charts they are one of a kind. That's to bad that COBRA has not been able to get very many donations for the amount of people reading and logging into his site. Maybe things will get better. Hope so because it takes a lot of time to make up an unbised report. I guess Nuff said and as usual wait and see.Have good fishing today.

KENA, nice to hear that you like my charts. I try to keep thing as simple as I can. I wish Cobra a success he gave so much to this board. I pay Stockcharts.com so I can view others's chart nothing else, that's 14.99/mo. for $10.00 here it's a steal.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:24 pm

Hey AL!
I tried twice, but could not access your T2126 chart.

Here is my “zooming in time” on $NDX:

1. The daily chart suggests that, lately, NDX is moving slowly within “cycling limits” while it periodically
displays extreme but unsustainable ADV/DECL ratios. IMHO this situation is conducive to short-lived swings.

2. The 130 min chart breaks every day in 3: opening, midday, and close. It is the chart of such swings and gives some signals that can be followed for a few days.

3. The 13 min chart breaks every 130 min period in 10 segments. Although not tradable by itself, it gives some interesting hints on some hidden aspects of the trend:
a. that during the latest upswing, 2 days of intense bullishness alternated with days containing time chunks of bearishness, which in turn resulted in whipsaws.
b. that, on Friday, the whipsaw took the shape of a single big bearish X.

IMHO: organized distribution is predominant…
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NDX130.GIF
NDX13.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:25 pm

Al_Dente wrote:Friday was some kind of significant day, a major intraday internals dump that I haven’t seen in a quite while… yes, perhaps it was just a one day “fluke”, etc.
Recall that Central Bank intervention has certainly offered quite a powerful trampoline over the past few years, and cannot be ignored.

PAGING Baron von BullBear52x, please consider re-posting your chart that I remember from months(?) ago, the one with DBV(?) calling out the central bank inflection points over the past few years.
…..Okay, fine, I’ll admit it, I do watch your charts very carefully, as often as I can (I just like to give you a hard time).
…. more tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apdaZfYI ... re=related

Here the bigger view of DBV. lots of liquidity out there or is it?
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dbv.JPG
Last edited by BullBear52x on Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:30 pm

The apparent fast-cooling of the THRUST…is one more reason to watch moves on Monday very closely, on multiple planes.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:46 pm

cougar wrote:VIX reentered timidly inside the Acceleration Band while TVIX gave a confirmed intraday BUY signal:

Cougar, I know many people see $VIX as over sold, see my MACD I see no turn sign yet. this is one hour.
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