02/05/2020 Live Update

[JFR]

ES 5. Still in the base. Pushing down beneath the EMA 20, towards the pivot.

[Cobra]

50% chances of double top here

[Cobra]

Now breakout should be more likely

[JFR]

ES 5. Back up to the top of the base. Finally let me out of a poorly-entered scalp (too late in a move).

[Al_Dente]

Virtually all investors classes - from retail investors, to institutions, to systematic quants, CTAs and Risk Parity funds and virtually everyone else - had gone "all in" stocks 

[Pasta here: When all market participants are on the starboard side of the ship, contrarians see a serious imbalance that
should soon mean-revert].

But McElligott and zh find a new "catalyst" that has emerged for more bullish action… re-leveraging
“funds will lever up even more and purchase tens of billions in more equities “
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unexp ... to+zero%29

[JFR]

ES 5. Up to a higher level of resistance.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Trades with cats]

Virtually all investors classes - from retail investors, to institutions, to systematic quants, CTAs and Risk Parity funds and virtually everyone else - had gone "all in" stocks 

[Pasta here: When all market participants are on the starboard side of the ship, contrarians see a serious imbalance that
should soon mean-revert].

But McElligott and zh find a new "catalyst" that has emerged for more bullish action… re-leveraging
“funds will lever up even more and purchase tens of billions in more equities “
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unexp ... to+zero%29

We had the working paper suggesting the FR New York bypass the banks and establish a conduit to loan directly to the hedge funds to avoid a future liquidity crisis when taxes are due. So clearly the hedge funds are being used as a screen for B of J style purchase of baskets of equities, that is two steps removed. So of course the lunch discussion at the Pound and Pence pub must be about more accommodation of the funds by the banks.

[JFR]

ES 5. Knocking on the door again, trying to break out.

[JFR]

Amongst some other stuff, a couple of holds for overnight. PCEF. UUP. Have a good evening.

[te_fern]

ES 5. Back up to the top of the base. Finally let me out of a poorly-entered scalp (too late in a move).

I can relate to that poor entry point as well. The early afternoon rally bailed me out. Why I can't wait for my set up I don't know. FOMO!

[JFR]

ES 5. Back up to the top of the base. Finally let me out of a poorly-entered scalp (too late in a move).

I can relate to that poor entry point as well. The early afternoon rally bailed me out. Why I can't wait for my set up I don't know. FOMO!

It is human nature, Man. In front of the monitors, looking at different charts and screens and workspaces, you see a trend. Being action-oriented, you want to enter. It is very, very hard to wait for the next bus, the next pullback or pause.

Entering too late (the move is over). Entering too early (need a trend). Those are my temptations, very often.

No big deal. But it is a constant challenge to follow your signals. Stops and targets keep us in the ball game.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:55 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/02 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today, here's what Thursday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

[Heck]

$VIX Target - 67 %
From 16.32 to 5.46
= WAY UP THAR

SPY Target + 22 %
From 330.67 to 403
+ .69 % Dividend

New Highs can be contagious