Cobra's Market View

Up 2 weeks in a row means 76% chances higher high ahead so should be still some up rooms.

This is a bit of a mind blower. Makes a clear case for trading futures, because you can buy at the Globex open in the evening and get out before the US open, or if you prefer bail with the Europeans late morning. In any event great conversation piece for a cocktail party. Or if you want to convince someone that the USA is over, well hey, there are the numbers!

BIIB Target + 76 %
From 331.83 to 583

MKL Target + 35 %
From 1310.01 to 1763.96

Trading after President’s Day Weekend
Tuesday SPX green; Wednesday is all red for all three major averages
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/1908 ... still-weak

February option expiration week:
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/1908 ... of-last-14

"... For the week ending February 14, traders bought to open nearly 24 million call options. That's the most in history..."
[Jason Goepfert, SentimenTrader]

UPDATE on the AD non-confirmation chart that I posted last weekend.
AD has since confirmed the highs. UPDATE on the “LEADERS” charts, which last weekend showed all on negative divergences.
Two of these have been “cured” (mmmm, take a wild guess...)
The rest of the leaders have been trying very hard, but are still neg diverg at the moment

From "It is what it is department" Key focus Complacent, I post this chart in weekend update few weeks back, see for yourself, short term top is near, too comfortable out there.Got quick correction then, And now......Short term trend is up, no reversal to call to yet. going into next week, 5DMA will be another line to see if reversal will or will not occur, I am leaning to the bearish camp, this market is due for good 5% correction before we move up higher. Trade well, Peace!

I'm wondering if the algos are turned off on days like Pres day where the ES trades until noon, stops and then restarts at 17:00?

Here's a series of youtubes I have been watching.
There are about money (vs currency) the 7 stages of environment and collapse, currency printing, deficits and debts, and so on.
Bottom line buy some gold and silver coins

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... zgwrq1jkUJ


Money vs Currency - Hidden Secrets Of Money Episode 1 - Mike Maloney
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU



The hidden secrets of Money EP5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQWMd_NPSBA

Top 4 Reasons For Deflation BEFORE Hyperinflation - Hidden Secrets Of Money Episode 6 (Mike Maloney)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GP87dgTqF8


The Money Illusion - Hidden Secrets Of Money Episode 7 - Mike Maloney
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4_1pwsm5LY

(min 28 This time we have tamed the economy)

This is a 60 minute combo for fun. Coolbiz current count looking for a significant pullback. From twitter it was pointed out we seem to be pulling back after new all time highs, so I put some graphic representation of that. Looks like around 22 points once it goes. But the boxes show that it takes about 6 points or so above the last all time high. And of course that has been shrinking as the triangle closes. Anyway it all adds some support to the Coolbiz count that we are ready to nose dive.

Pasta Boss linked to that over the moon extreme call option figure. Helps to explain why the options market makers have been really throwing their weight around as we approach big strikes. And my last box says 3395 ( a big strike) is the pullback. But if it does pull I expect Goldman and friends will push this thing to maximum options pain level by Friday and I am guessing that is much lower. Oh yea the same risk man agement that forced them to buy (creating cover call option contracts) will be having them sell as those options drop out of the money. Whoosh (air pocket drops). So another reason for Coolbiz to be correct.

Finally the PBoC has stated that it is time to tighten belts, they are done with flooding market with liquidity. Overnight and today on the chart certainly shows that. Again, another argument in favor of the pullback.

And I know if you are a newly minted millionaire from playing Tesla options Japan going deeply negative on their economy and Germany about to drag Euro zone into recession is a meaningless piece of noise, but not if you are the dynamic duo from Omaha Charlie and Warren. But whio listens to them they are even older than boomers.

See you all bright and early tomorrow.

I will be away from the house tomorrow, so I won't be able to participate in the markets. Sunday nights ramp up was given back earlier this evening. Could be an interesting day tomorrow!!

Wow, that worked out a lot faster than I expected.