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Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:30 pm
by BullBear52x
tsf wrote:Thank you everyone for your excellent posts this weekend.

BB52x,
What parameters do you use for your Fibs?
Thank you.

two ranges for Fibs measurement I like to use: 1. the Period of anchor chart ( Monthly, weekly, or daily) 2. the distance of last leg (up/Down)

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:47 pm
by BullBear52x
Al_Dente wrote:Another chart from the vault.
This is a DAILY chart of the 1987 crash.
Note that two days before the crash, Thursday October 15, SPX closed just a hair under the 200sma (red box).
The day before the crash, Friday October 16, SPX was well below 200sma and the RSI was already in EXTREME OVERSOLD territory
and ripe for a bounce.
On CRASH DAY, Monday October 19, SPX GAPPED down more than -20% and the rest was history.
Many lessons to be found here, two are: 1) EXTREME OVERSOLD RSI does not guarantee a bounce, and 2) Intraday only with no overnight holds, as BrassBalls52x trades, sounds compelling after pondering this chart ….

The attachment crash1987.png.png is no longer available

This is why(per my book) if you use RSI as an entry point, wait for RSI to head back up >30 before trigger, so's the sell side wait for RSI <70 to trigger. today RSI's no buy trigger. just like any indicators they all are lagging. the old man once said " Buy when everyone is fearful"
1.PNG

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:50 pm
by BullBear52x
The only Holy Grail chart available today :lol:
Talking about buy the panic, lots of blood on the street.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:16 pm
by BullBear52x
Old chart retracement and the $VIX spikes. from this leg up measurement we can see a correction above 50% if the weakness continue below 38.2% then sell everything to buy a bunker.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:19 pm
by te_fern
Don't forget to vote for Cobra today!

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:34 pm
by Mr. BachNut
BachNut special Sunday edition.

What a week!
I knew Pac Man could rip though the target stack pretty quickly, but I figured it would take more than a few days and include some bounces.
Even the 200 day MA offered scant support (about three hours of consolidation...).

Not much to add to last week's post but here are a couple of points:

The market generally doesn't like to make a low on a Friday.
Perhaps there will be some intervention or an event, but left to its own devices, odds are descent for Friday's low to get tested/bested before a bounce.
There happens to be one last nearby down gap target at SPX 2847.11.
It would be technically nice to close that before a bounce, but it doesn't have to happen.

Friday's volume showed some capitulation.
I figure last week liquidated over-levered punters and players. Patient longs are still in and need further deterioration before they drain the tub.
Some other comparable instances of capitulation volume (December '18 low is on chart) show another day or two of weak trade before a rally.
Let's see what happens this time. In any case, it is time to watch for bottoming behavior.

Friday's close was strong, but I figure a lot of shorts wanted to go into the weekend flat.
Much of the move to the high occurred in the last few minutes of trade.
We'll see on Monday if shorts reload, or not.

With the NYMO in the oversold zone, odds are for a bounce to commence some time this week.
However, as noted before, crashes can happen from oversold. So, there are lesser odds that should not be dismissed for things to get ugly.

Bigger picture. A rally that recovers the 200 MA and then rolls over to make new lows would trigger patient long liquidation.
The December 2018 low was never tested. Maybe that is on the agenda for this year.

I am flat.
The big gap last Sunday left my swing short setups at the alter. Truly a bummer as they would have made my year, but I don't chase and have the scar tissue to show why.
Volatility is also extreme making it hard to position for a swing on the fly.
So, I have been working day trade setups since mid-week. It is not my cup of tea, but the intra-day moves are big enough and trendy enough to justify.
I plan to continue that approach this week, but will try to end up with some runner longs that could collect on a bounce.

NYMO 030120.jpg

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:08 pm
by jademann
It is what it is from perma bear central:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SP ... 291221744c

Hint: Come what may I will not consder covering anything until it hits the green line :)


Hey Bullbear for the past 2 years or so I can no longer access your charts blog. Does it need a password?

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:21 pm
by jademann
Al_Dente wrote:Another chart from the vault.
This is a DAILY chart of the 1987 crash.
Note that two days before the crash, Thursday October 15, SPX closed just a hair under the 200sma (red box).
The day before the crash, Friday October 16, SPX was well below 200sma and the RSI was already in EXTREME OVERSOLD territory
and ripe for a bounce.
On CRASH DAY, Monday October 19, SPX GAPPED down more than -20% and the rest was history.
Many lessons to be found here, two are: 1) EXTREME OVERSOLD RSI does not guarantee a bounce, and 2) Intraday only with no overnight holds, as BrassBalls52x trades, sounds compelling after pondering this chart ….

crash1987.png.png



Thats the chart that totally destroyed my dad's retirement financially. he was put in at the wrong time and the mutual funds he was in took 10 years to recover the 50% he lost. Inflation meant it never actually recovered.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:24 pm
by BullBear52x
That blog site is no longer in service.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:25 pm
by jademann
BullBear52x wrote:That blog site is no longer in service.


Ok thanks, google keeps saying I need a password..

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:03 pm
by Al_Dente
This week, our friend, Dr. Al Brooks [yes, he used to be a medical doctor] has a MUST READ post on the pandemic and the markets.

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/mar ... -pandemic/

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:07 pm
by tim-follows
these show USA and non USA trading hours, 7am to 7pm est.
Screenshot (3).png
stay above 2900 before 6am Monday?
12 hour bars of SP future, looked like could see a pop next 2-4 days to 3100 and 3160.
below, compare duration and magnitude to august and october of 2019.

Screenshot (4)_LI.jpg
august 2019 bounce


Screenshot (5).png
October bounce 2019

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:19 pm
by tsf
BullBear52x wrote:
tsf wrote:Thank you everyone for your excellent posts this weekend.

BB52x,
What parameters do you use for your Fibs?
Thank you.

two ranges for Fibs measurement I like to use: 1. the Period of anchor chart ( Monthly, weekly, or daily) 2. the distance of last leg (up/Down)



BB52x, thank you for your prompt attention.

Would you able to phrase your answer in estimated parameters like these, e.g. Fibonacci Retracement Line(time=65 days or 135 days, minimum length=10 days or 40 days)

Fibonacci Retracement Line(time, minimum length)
time - The first parameter is the length of time used to look for the up-trend or down-trend. So, a value of 65 will search over the last 3 months to look for the trend.
min length - The second parameter is the minimum number of days for the trend to occur. For example, if you specify 15 days here, that means the distance between the high and low must be at least 15 days.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:56 pm
by tim-follows
Futures look to open down 2% soon, weekend futures traded down 2.5 to down 1% all weekend, the trump - bump placating speech Saturday did seem to elicit 1% shortcovering on Saturday

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:09 pm
by Harapa
Harapa wrote:Yesterday ES gained 100+ points past 3:45 EST :o

Long ES 2895...S/L 20 handles BE after a gain of 20...

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:21 pm
by Al_Dente
... virtually every trader is refreshing the Fed website every few seconds ahead of what is seen as an inevitable intervention by the Fed, which has always stepped in when there was a sharp market drop in the past 11 years - why would it not do so now?
https://www.federalreserve.gov/

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:11 pm
by tim-follows
might look a bit too political to intervene on a sunday night, waiting for first domino of corporate default perhaps

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:47 pm
by BullBear52x
tsf wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:
tsf wrote:Thank you everyone for your excellent posts this weekend.

BB52x,
What parameters do you use for your Fibs?
Thank you.

two ranges for Fibs measurement I like to use: 1. the Period of anchor chart ( Monthly, weekly, or daily) 2. the distance of last leg (up/Down)



BB52x, thank you for your prompt attention.

Would you able to phrase your answer in estimated parameters like these, e.g. Fibonacci Retracement Line(time=65 days or 135 days, minimum length=10 days or 40 days)

Fibonacci Retracement Line(time, minimum length)
time - The first parameter is the length of time used to look for the up-trend or down-trend. So, a value of 65 will search over the last 3 months to look for the trend.
min length - The second parameter is the minimum number of days for the trend to occur. For example, if you specify 15 days here, that means the distance between the high and low must be at least 15 days.

I don't use time cycle in my analysis, I just use fibonaci as measurement tool from high to low just to see what the reaction to each level, my final entry based on average price profile and chart pattern.

Re: 02/29/2020 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:48 pm
by Harapa
Harapa wrote:
Harapa wrote:Yesterday ES gained 100+ points past 3:45 EST :o

Long ES 2895...S/L 20 handles BE after a gain of 20...

Out @ 2920...need a good night sleep...