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03/06/2020 Live Update

03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:23 am

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Wait to see whether bulls can make a double bottom while testing the previous low.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:26 am


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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:28 am

employment report GOOD,
unemployment rate GOOD 3.5%,
virus report BAD,
trump signs $8.3 billion virus-aid bill
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:31 am

SPY daily. Gap down. Gonna be busy, away from my usual desktop, for a while. Will post update pix from StockCharts.


2020-03-06_0631.png
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:36 am

Dow 30. A sea of red. WMT, UNH and MMM suffering the least. JPM, AXP and UTX getting hit the hardest.


2020-03-06_0635.png
Last edited by JFR on Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby ccash04 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:36 am

PPT out in force today, IG and HY bonds getting smoked this morning
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:37 am

edit CNN Extreme Fear 5 = UP

SP.1 Mar Futures BUYING > 2,906.25
Last edited by Heck on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby ccash04 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:39 am

Selling any of the rips today in equities. TLT up 5%
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:40 am

PLUNGE Headlines = UP

$SPX BUYING > 2,901.54 edit = UP

SPY BUYING > 290.23 edit = UP
Last edited by Heck on Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:41 am

buy above 2947.5 only selling under, another 2-3% moves overnight, if you are on the right side it's awesome or Oy....
2926-2947.5 range is no man's land.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullTart » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:41 am

The ascending triangle breakdown trade play has been playing out as expected... trading this play using tvix, caught a bunch near the "moment of truth" when it got beat down from the triangle on the back-test after breaking down... short covering to kick us off as bears lock in profits over the large gap down. Expect resumption of down move until we hit target around 2800 before a meaningful bounce lights up the bears in a bear trap.

This is where I loaded up on tvix - once we generated a big red bar down after touching the triangle on the back-test:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3904&start=20#p279152
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Last edited by BullTart on Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:45 am

Larry Kudlow: 'I don't want to panic' = UP

QQQ BUYING > 292.49 = UP
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:46 am

IWM opens below last September's low
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:51 am

Yesterday: zh shines a light on the market liquidity problems:

Widening bid/offer spreads and increased impact of trading is related to a reluctance of market markers to offer or bid for meaningful sizes (less HFT participation is likely related). As a result, we now have a market that is very sensitive to natural supply/demand dynamics.
Coupled with increased spreads, another difficulty is the available size in order books. SX5E Futures have been most impacted with an average of ~500 contracts on the top line of the order book over the last week vs. a 6m[onth] average of 3,500.

Aggregating across single names in the cash market, order books are the thinnest since at least 2015 with the top line now 40% thinner than the 6m[onth] average. So, while volumes are high, trading is not easy. :shock:

There has also been a sharp relative decrease in the use of the closing auction. High intraday volatility brings an increase in demand for market-hours liquidity and relatively less passive participation in auctions, all at a time when order books are shrinking!
spreads are widening more at the time of day when demand for volume is highest and the market WANTS to trade – particularly into the EU cash close (market makers may be slow to take overnight gap risk).
Last edited by Al_Dente on Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:52 am

$TNX 0.66% edit ATL
1/.0066
=> 152 PE

Now we're talking
Higher than 2009
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

152/22.14 = room for 6.87 times market multiple expansion

BULLYA
Greatest Depression Accounting
Last edited by Heck on Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby ccash04 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:53 am

Puts paying $$ today. Will start trimming below 2,900, think we go at least test 2,850 today
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:58 am

BullTart wrote:The ascending triangle breakdown trade play has been playing out as expected... trading this play using tvix, caught a bunch near the "moment of truth" when it got beat down from the triangle on the back-test after breaking down... short covering to kick us off as bears lock in profits over the large gap down. Expect resumption of down move until we hit target around 2800 before a meaningful bounce lights up the bears in a bear trap.

This is where I loaded up on tvix - once we generated a big red bar down after touching the triangle on the back-test:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3904&start=20#p279152


Nice trade

TVIX Double leverage daily compounding reset
From the Prospectus:

'designed to achieve their stated investment objectives on a daily basis, but their performance over longer periods of time can differ significantly from their stated daily objectives. The ETNs are riskier than securities that have intermediate or long-term investment objectives, and may not be suitable for investors who plan to hold them for longer than one day.'
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:59 am

I am buying now, Honey hole special.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:00 am

Daily Bullish reversal bar operation.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:03 am


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