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03/06/2020 Live Update

Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:52 am

The rebound may have legs. If it can hold for the next couple of bars without big pullback then it'd be an uptrend day.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:52 am

The heaviest weights in SPY
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:57 am

Last edited by Heck on Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:59 am

The "LEADERS"
Buybacks, High-Betas, and Smalls are at fresh lows
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:00 pm

It's FRIDAY, some resistance here, a break down below lower wedge I will call it a day. so far I see no ending for the bulls' move until then....
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:07 pm

Cash SPX Fib, bull are fine as long as 61.8% held up.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:08 pm

got stop out, I am done, it's Friday. Peace!
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:45 pm

European stocks close 3.6% lower

Time for US divergence ?

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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:49 pm

36JPM.PNG.png


Then, today, heart attack
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby mattchessen » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:50 pm

I'm a total lurker but I want to say thank you for all your analysis!

I also want to share this report which you should read if you want to understand the full risk to the economy and our public safety from the virus. Absent a robust response, we are going to have a lot of dead people and a tanked economy: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... f_COVID-19

Stay safe!
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:54 pm

....
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:01 pm

....
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:06 pm


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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Fieldydwb » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:08 pm

Heck wrote:Corona market mass hysteria ?

First case reported 1 Dec 2019, 96 days ago, enough time for COVID-19 to go around world on airlines unprotected until 31 Jan 2020

600,000 people a year die of seasonal flu globally and nobody says boo

3,383 COVID-19 global deaths, mostly immune impaired, prior heart and lung disease

14 COVID-19 deaths in USA, 9 in WA nursing home and mockingbird monopoly media go crazy

Trading accordingly

Long and strong

'People in crowds go mad all at once

Regain their sense one by one'

Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

Nothing to fear
But fear itself



One has to be careful to compare this to the flu. The % requiring intensive care, the mortality rates and the asymptomatic spreading is why it's different. The only similarity to a flu is that they are both viruses. One has vaccinations the other does not.. It is and will become a massive burden on the system and if unchecked it'll spread across the US with a 10-15% of population requiring intensive care. I don't wanna go into intensive care at those odds, most others won't either. This is what will cause economic effects. It'll and has created fear. One has to be careful for searching news out that confirms a bias. Confirmation bias is a dangerous thing in trading. Such confusing times and being diligent is the key.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:08 pm

Too bad the big pullback means the best for bulls is just a range day. Bears are seeking the range low, assume the day low for now.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby mattchessen » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:13 pm

Fieldydwb wrote:
Heck wrote:Corona market mass hysteria ?

First case reported 1 Dec 2019, 96 days ago, enough time for COVID-19 to go around world on airlines unprotected until 31 Jan 2020

600,000 people a year die of seasonal flu globally and nobody says boo

3,383 COVID-19 global deaths, mostly immune impaired, prior heart and lung disease

14 COVID-19 deaths in USA, 9 in WA nursing home and mockingbird monopoly media go crazy

Trading accordingly

Long and strong

'People in crowds go mad all at once

Regain their sense one by one'

Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

Nothing to fear
But fear itself



One has to be careful to compare this to the flu. The % requiring intensive care, the mortality rates and the asymptomatic spreading is why it's different. The only similarity to a flu is that they are both viruses. One has vaccinations the other does not.. It is and will become a massive burden on the system and if unchecked it'll spread across the US with a 10-15% of population requiring intensive care. I don't wanna go into intensive care at those odds, most others won't either. This is what will cause economic effects. It'll and has created fear. One has to be careful for searching news out that confirms a bias. Confirmation bias is a dangerous thing in trading. Such confusing times and being diligent is the key.


This is spot on.
-this is not just the flu. WHO said the case fatality rate globally is 3.4%. That means for every case diagnosed, 3.4% of those people will die. CFRs for the flu are ~.1% for regular and ~.2% for a bad year. Corona is also highly contagious.
-Some people are saying the CFR is much lower because there are many undiagnosed cases. But this is not what the WHO has found globally. -
Most (~80%) of people will have mild symptoms. But the virus is terrible for people over 50. We can't just say "live with it" because then we're basically throwing all of our elders under the bus. 
Critical cases could overwhelm our health care system if we don't focus on containment. Italy just reported that 10% of cases require ICU care. If 20% of the US (60 million) get the virus (and that's a conservative number; some epidemiologists are saying 40-70%) then 6 million will need ICU care. The US has ~100,000 ICU beds. You do the math on what we do with the other 5,900,000 critical cases. And if the hospitals are basically hit with a denial of service attack, other critical cases (heart attacks, accidents, etc) are going to die for lack of treatment. This is why China was building hospitals in days. They needed to massively increase their capacity (see attached report and below)
-We do not have nearly enough testing kits available. This shows you just how far behind we are on testing. It's bad enough that the CDC removed the numbers earlier this week: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ We are rolling out test but not nearly fast enough-On Monday the administration said we'd have 1 million tests available by the end of this week. Yesterday Pence said it wouldn't happen. But then he claimed we'd have 1.2 million available next week. Let's hope so. 
-Because we're not aggressively testing, there are stealth epidemics all over the country. What's happening in Seattle is going to become the norm if we don't get ahead of this. 
-my son and I have been sick this week with upper respiratory symptoms. We should be tested. If we're positive our contacts should be traced and quarantined. But we've basically been told the health department is only approving tests for pneumonia cases. That's smart to prioritize, but it also shows how far we have to go. 
-This is not a hoax. If not dealt with appropriately, millions in the US could die and we could since into a terrible economic depression. Right now we are not dealing with it appropriately. 
Read the report above
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:37 pm

Smalls, 52-week low
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby BullTart » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:39 pm

People been comparing novel viruses to the flu... since like, forever... here's a newspaper in 1918... similar arguments about why not to worry. Then 50+million people died from the Spanish Flu.

Main difference from the flu is that with a novel virus that's zoonotic:

1. there is no immunity, and
2. there is no vaccine

#2 above cannot be said about the flu, and that is the biggest difference.

Combined with the fact that we stilly don't know too much about it (e.g. mortality rate), the downside is nearly unlimited, as people found out in 1918.

Yes, we have more medical equipment and tech now, but remember, this is a novel zoonotic virus, so again, there's no simple cure or vaccine, with limited (HIV meds, etc.) treatment, even with all the tech we have now.

So just know your history when you start comparing to the flu - there is precedent, and valid concerns - which is why scientists and medical professionals are concerned.

Doesn't mean we will have part deux of the Spanish Flu now, but also doesn't mean "it's just the flu" either, because the flu won't kill 50+million people - we have vaccines.

With SARS-CoV2, the reality is that we simply still don't know - and markets really don't like uncertainty. Trade wisely my friends.
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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby JFR » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:40 pm

SPY 5 minute. Back up to the EMA 20.

Have a good weekend, Everyone. Wash your hands a lot. Don't touch your face. You know the drill. Out in public gloves might be recommended, or put a paper towel between your hand and the gas pump or door knobs. Do not shake hands.


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Re: 03/06/2020 Live Update

Postby Heck » Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:03 pm

....
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