Cobra's Market View

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Pretzel Logic has some interesting thoughts today ...

"... Anyway, I got to thinking about all this because my long-term count has us approaching the end of Cycle Wave 5 -- and the end of Cycle 5 marks the end of a higher degree Supercycle Wave.

And the end of Supercycle rallies is a huge deal. It's world-changing."

http://www.pretzelcharts.com

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IWM's 60min opening range is 133.50--136. It is now trading right around daily VWAP.

It is also trading at January 2017 levels.

Consolidation, bias is up, still need touch the ema20

SPY 5. After all that excitement, including the absence of our leader, Cobra, this is turning into a yawner of a stock market session. Taking a break. Hoping StockCharts can get up off the mat, and allow me to do some Scan research. There are scalps available, but I am not that interested right now. I have a few ETFs running. No worries. Later ...

Uh oh. IWM lod.

Stockcharts gets more and more expensive and yet worse and worse.

The trading seems very slow - I guess the algos have gone to bed.

could be dangerous govt buy prgs to rip your head off so be careful.

IB has suspended intraday margins - so double the usual.

nibbling short side with micro.

selling little bounces with stop in place.

no big bets today.

A few more big picture sorts of thoughts:

The patient money probably hasn't liquidated much yet.
This move has been so fast that various weekly moving averages and other slower indicators have not gone bear.
There is a ton of trapped longs above as well as long term money that can become sellers in due course.

While a tradeable rally may set up in coming days, the fuel may just be squeezing shorts and funds re-balancing.
The bond rally has been stunning . There is a portfolio sell bonds buy stocks re-balance to be done soon.
That said, trapped longs will use a rally to get out. So, who knows how far a rally can get.
I suspect the high for the year is in, and the mother of all price gaps (2/21 - 2/24) may be there for awhile.

When the December 2018 low was in process, my bear market models fired.
The Fed stepped in, saved the day and inflated the market for the next year.
From a technical standpoint, that 2018 low was never properly tested, nor was the price discovery in process at that time ever allowed to find equilibrium (IMO).
So, it would be of interest to me, as a technical matter, to see the June 2019 SPX low broken (R2K has already done so) and to see what happens if quotes find there way to the range formed by the 2018 low, the 2019 low and the 2018 close.
How is that for some bear food?...

Touching EMA finally. Bias still is up.

Fidelity orders

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearc ... ders.jhtml

it would be nicer to have stockcharts.com running in a day like today. 2869 is next target to look up to. I am rooting for the bulls, I like market pull back as a correction not a crash and burn.

So far good strength, first sell rip intraday failed. now it's bulls to decide what to do, losing back or continue up from here, wedge line is a stop for bulls.

Stockcharts.com is back up.

from that I can see now bulls need to regain and closed above 2864, swing buy setup will be trigger to a buy. shocked, but it is what it is....

SPY 5. from that website, uhmm, yeah, StockCharts. Hanging around the EMA 20 and the resistance line. Not that motivated today. Gonna do some market research. Will check in occasionally to see if there is any excitement in the market.

ascending wedge on the ES - breakdown of the bottom trendline will bring in selling pressure

Chart for the road: I am done today, this is what we got, bulls do or die, need to see the summation index turning north from here. (long term for me) Peace!

The pullback gets stronger, as it exceeded the last one, not a good sign. May test the blue line below.