03/19/2020 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

I can feel the bottom for few days into next week, but buying dip will have to wait until we can regain above 5DMA, too weak yet, tomorrow option expiry (3)

[BullBear52x]

TICK = bull

[K447]

I can feel the bottom for few days into next week, but buying dip will have to wait until we can regain above 5DMA, too weak yet, tomorrow option expiry (3)

Meaning a temporary bottom, correct?

[BullBear52x]

I can feel the bottom for few days into next week, but buying dip will have to wait until we can regain above 5DMA, too weak yet, tomorrow option expiry (3)

Meaning a temporary bottom, correct?

Yep, rips will be sold, hourly and Daily. until they fail then bulls will marching on.

[Heck]

I went 100% long UPRO based on this chart.

http://schrts.co/sIDXQyRx

Green close ?

[BullBear52x]

morning bulls looking good.

[brokebybernacke2]

I can feel the bottom for few days into next week, but buying dip will have to wait until we can regain above 5DMA, too weak yet, tomorrow option expiry (3)

Agree, next week best chance for a low that lasts longer than a day
Keeping my eye on a decent size IHS on the VIX, that pops, good for a +15 vix from 83.

[Heck]

edit

CNN Extreme Fear 5 Rising = 11th UP

$TRIN < 1 = 12th UP

All Three ISEE UP = 15 UPs

BULLYA

[Al_Dente]

Potus signed the House Bill last night. It includes:
... provisions for free testing for Covid-19 and paid emergency leave.
...would provide many workers with up to two weeks of paid sick leave if they are being tested or treated for coronavirus or have been diagnosed with it. Also eligible would be those who have been told by a doctor or government official to stay home because of exposure or symptoms.  
… those payments would be capped at $511 a day, roughly what someone making $133,000 earns annually.
Workers with family members affected by coronavirus and those whose children's schools have closed would receive up to two-thirds of their pay, though that benefit would now be limited to $200 a day.

[BullBear52x]

2700 is now a tough ceiling to break.

[jademann]

I went 100% long UPRO based on this chart.

http://schrts.co/sIDXQyRx

What's that mean to you?

Just a feeling that the ema is going to trend down a while.
We are due a hell of a bear market rally when bears lose control.

[Al_Dente]

Price down, yield up
Dividend on the SPX stocks is now 2.26% (yesterday’s close)
That’s a bottom zone for SPX.
This is weekly, and IT IS NOT AN EXACT SIGNAL, just a ZONE, meaning it could go higher before it turns.
Compare the dividend to 10yr Treasurys which are currently (real time) 0.109%

[Cobra]

Don't know whether it's a double top here, the pullback probably will be bought because it's 100% mm up (tinted area), the up momentum still is not weakened.

[BullBear52x]

inside day, bulls need to push over yesterday's HOD to change the short term mood.

another buy at 69ish.

[K447]

Price down, yield up
Dividend on the SPX stocks is now 2.26% (yesterday’s close)
...

Is that using the non-revised dividend rate for SPY, data from prior to the pandemic ?

Dividend cutting seems to be a thing now

[Mr. BachNut]

Well, things were looking pretty grim yesterday.
The Balrog took Gandalf down into the abyss below the 2018 low.
By some miracle of his incantations, however, the index found a low near the 2016 high (yes...2016) and managed to close above the 2018 low.
Gandalf like a lot of market participants became grey.

The NYMO still looks like hell bouncing along the oversold zone.

You will see a bunch of purple lines on the chart.
Those are all gaps from 2017 that got closed in the plunge.
While I consider the gaps technically stale, the point is that there was never much organic price discovery in that range.
So, it was vulnerable.

Plenty of gaps above to offer future targets.

What happens next, I don't know.
There is a case for a low getting set here.
If we break yesterday's highs (inside day at the moment), that may be.

I can see a bit of descending wedge still.
So, we may get another test of yesterday's lows into OPEX.
Just an idea.

I am long some SPY.
I have been putting on lots at lows and selling half at highs to build a position with a profit cushion until a turn becomes clear.
The volatility has been extraordinary and has offered the opportunity to work the bouncing ball here.

[JFR]

ES 5. Testing down beneath the EMA 20 and the support/resistance level.

[Al_Dente]

potus and the task force
presser moments away

[JFR]

potus and the task force
presser moments away

Still shoulder to shoulder lineup I expect. And hands all over the podium. Same microphone. Same center of attention. Social distancing? Nah. No handshakes though.

[JFR]

UUP to the moon, Alice. Taking a break. Back later ...