03/20/2020 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Breaking:
NBC employee died from virus
RIP

[BullTart]

Cuomo comes out with the news of basically NY lock down for all non-essential personnel - if the bulls can weather this bomb, it will show that the market is becoming numb to bad news. That would portend a temporary bottom here.

Essentially, the opposite of the times when the Fed bazooka news would come out and the market spiked briefly then faded shortly after.

That would signal a change in herd psychology.

Basically, if this news came out a week ago... that NY is shut down, the market would have tanked big time. Today, so far, it took a small hit and paused.

Seems like the market has priced in "the end of the world as we know it" at this point

(talking point on cnbc which I agree with)

[Al_Dente]

WH presser "moments away"

[BullBear52x]

If you don't make it a real panic, you will not get that bail out for the business? for us, only price pays, I hope bulls can hold on to this, not looking now do or die. have a good weekend all. Peace!

boss: charts react to the news

That's what stops are for I got you, down to a tick or a min. charts, thing can change on a dime.

[JFR]

ES 5. Down to the pivot.

Just listened to Governor Cuomo in NY. And I see they are trying to demonstrate social distancing in the conference. This is all new to us. We do what we can. And no lies nor salesmanship. Cuomo takes responsibility.

Meantime, ES has moved down.

[Al_Dente]

That's what stops are for I got you, down to a tick or a min. charts, thing can change on a dime.

like
+1

[BullTart]

Ascending triangle still in play, NY lockdown news notwithstanding

[Al_Dente]

I work well with all the Governors
They all love me
You'd be surprised

[JFR]

Social distancing? No. Mike Pompeo: "Chinese virus."

ES 5 testing down beneath the pivot.

2020-03-20_0905.png (130.51 KiB) Viewed 3410 times

[Al_Dente]

3/19 Risk-parity funds will begin rebuilding “long” positions as volatility falls. This buying pressure could then work to trigger upside “buy-stops” just as it did “sell-stops” on the initial volatility spikes and subsequent price declines. It is also worth noting, that CTAs as a whole have fared quite well through these turbulent markets and have far outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark. [Charlie McElligott’s “PUKE TRIGGER” AT 3139 SURE HELPED US HERE ON COBRA'S BOARD]

3/20 The extreme Dealer “Short Gamma” phenomenon of the past 1.5 months is in the process of CLEARING, on account of the now-completed VIX expiry (Wed) and today’s Quad Witch Op-Ex, where our updated numbers show potential for upwards ... $Gamma in SPX / SPY ...
... more likely to be “adding” vs “reducing” here.
… SHORT COVERING … a powerful “Netting-UP” of exposure from the leveraged community yesterday in anticipation of a bounce.
Additionally, Charlie notes that Month- and Quarter- end will merit an enormous Pension Rebalance flow (buy Equities, sell Bonds)
… However… Today has all the markings of a disastrous session…. Because there is no liquidity in the Treasury Market.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/03 ... ay-update/

[jademann]

Sold my UPRO for small lose. should have sold it at the days high. GL good weekend all.

[JFR]

SPY weekly. 3 years.

[Heck]

11:10 AM
All Three ISEE Indices = UP

[QED]

.
"Come back with your shield - or on it" (Plutarch, Mor. 241)

Well, it appears as if the bears are carrying the bulls out on their shields!
.

[JFR]

SPY 5. Down.

[BullTart]

Failed ascending triangle? Could be, unless it's a false breakout like the one at the top of the triangle earlier - we will know soon, if we don't get back in the triangle shortly, the trade is bust and my long positions will be exited

[Mr. BachNut]

Hmmm.
It may be OPEX related, but we have NYMO up on a down day so far.
The NYMO low was a week ago Thursday.
So, maybe we have some base building going on under the hood.
Time will tell.

On my calculation of the Russell 2000 equivalent of the NYMO, the oscillator went positive yesterday.
Perhaps we will see the R2K lead the turn. Something to watch.

[JFR]

SPY 5. Finding some support.

[JFR]

ES 5. Back above the pivot, testing the trendline and a resistance level.