The NYMO cycle appears UP but unconfirmed.
We are on our 3rd higher high from the March 12th low but remain under the zero line.
We are just shy of zero now. The model calls for two closes above to confirm the cycle.
Even though the up cycle is unconfirmed, I have marked the down cycle low with maroon lines.
It is a discretionary call that the NYMO low is in. (could prove wrong.
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This sets a benchmark price for the up cycle of SPX 2478.86, the price low at the NYMO low.
So, we are looking for a minimum move to that level and hopefully higher.
It is about 100 handles above current levels as I write, which is not shabby.
Plenty of up price gaps above, and a mother of a big one below.
If there are trapped longs left that held all the way down, they don't really come into play as resistance until 2750 +.
Unfortunately, Gandalf got eaten by the Balrog with a close and expansion below the 2018 low.
So, while we are seeing signs of support here, the bears have won a decisive victory.
Long setups may take shape, but watch your six. Volatility is still high.
I am long SPY and IWM.
I have been putting on small lots and selling half on bounces to provide a risk reducing profit cushion.
These have been small discretionary trades.
My normal swing setups are just starting to organize. I suspect the stops will be quite wide, so these ETF trades may get me to a useful exposure when the time comes.
We shall see. Could be stupid...