Cobra's Market View

Dow 30. A sea of green. CVX, BA and MCD leading the parade. WMT trailing.

Need to breakout of this level, a little problem here, but if the bull can, 2500-2550 is a cake walk. Yes, we can.... Go bulls go!

SPY weekly. Three years of gains lost. Like Der Drumph says, we will see what happens, but it looks like he wants to go full steam ahead.

Have been using COST as a proxy for validation of moves. It is not happy today, hmmmmm. FWIW.

ES 5. Pushing down towards the EMA 20.

Break above the day high with strong bull bar in the next couple of bars then it's an uptrend day. Key time.

ES 5. Down hard to the EMA 20.

McElligott 
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mcell ... to+zero%29

The NYMO cycle appears UP but unconfirmed.
We are on our 3rd higher high from the March 12th low but remain under the zero line.
We are just shy of zero now. The model calls for two closes above to confirm the cycle.
Even though the up cycle is unconfirmed, I have marked the down cycle low with maroon lines.
It is a discretionary call that the NYMO low is in. (could prove wrong. )
This sets a benchmark price for the up cycle of SPX 2478.86, the price low at the NYMO low.
So, we are looking for a minimum move to that level and hopefully higher.
It is about 100 handles above current levels as I write, which is not shabby.

Plenty of up price gaps above, and a mother of a big one below.
If there are trapped longs left that held all the way down, they don't really come into play as resistance until 2750 +.

Unfortunately, Gandalf got eaten by the Balrog with a close and expansion below the 2018 low.
So, while we are seeing signs of support here, the bears have won a decisive victory.
Long setups may take shape, but watch your six. Volatility is still high.

I am long SPY and IWM.
I have been putting on small lots and selling half on bounces to provide a risk reducing profit cushion.
These have been small discretionary trades.
My normal swing setups are just starting to organize. I suspect the stops will be quite wide, so these ETF trades may get me to a useful exposure when the time comes.
We shall see. Could be stupid...

Tick looks good all morning. and internals are telling me we will blast through 2400, but by end of day bulls need to close above 2414 for bulls to sleep well at night.

McElligott
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mcell ... to+zero%29
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Thanks, that's is a very good explanation of the recent VIX dynamics!

Breakout should be more likely

/ES and TVIX sill rising in tandem... very interesting.

ES 5. Riding the pivot. The bulls pushing hard.

Stops for the half lot is now at 2380, let it runs to the infinity and beyond......

I don't think we will see 10% gain but who knows? crazy market is the way to describe it.

ES 5. Pushing up against resistance. Taking a break.

top channel is where the sellers will jump at it. let see the reaction there before I would say bulls are done today.

Cobra wrote:Breakout should be more likely

Spy is thru resistance, QQQ and IWM almost, not yet...

BullTart wrote:

McElligott
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mcell ... to+zero%29

Thanks, that's is a very good explanation of the recent VIX dynamics!

""""the TVIX had a near terminal event, as per Bloomberg calculations, on 3/18/20 (last Weds) """"

$SPXBP popped over 20.