Cobra's Market View

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No idea up or down from here. The rebound overnight looks impressive though so maybe bias is up?

Members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/03 ... ay-update/

% Comparing 100 of the highest-beta stocks (green) to the lower-beta staples (gold)
6 months, daily

Banks
"too big to fails"
15min

The pullback means it's just a range day.

where is everyone?

Al_Dente wrote:where is everyone?

Home on the Range

All Three ISEE = UP

BULLYA

May test the Friday high, breakout would mean a late uptrend day in which case I'll still treat it as a range day.

De Blasio streaming as "Comfort" ship arrives
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_Ma8oQLmSM

The United Nations gave us a quarter-million masks

Bullish engulfing wins!

Fund rebalancing nearly done... tomorrow is last day of the month so should be over soon.

Funds have no choice but to increase their equity exposure before month-end to be in line with their prospectus. They have to buy. Perhaps the best illustration was the morning when unemployment claims came out a lot worse than expected and the markets skyrocketed through what seemed like a very controlled programmatic buying program.

Fund also aren't stupid. They realize that once month-end rebalancing is over, there may be a dearth of buyers and the levitation game may sink real quick.

So what do they do? They buy protection through put options.

What does that do? Well, it keeps the vix elevated... like even if the SPX rises, the VIX doesn't go down. Because the funds are paying premium for protection. Because month end rebalancing is coming to an end.

Anyways, that's my current trading strategy. Technicals help me scale more efficiently in and out of that thesis.

Democrats are trying to figure out a way to replace Biden with Cuomo
(not joking)

Meanwhile, in fundamentals world...

The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.

32%, even if for just a blip, is an astonishingly high number for the St. Louis Fed to come out with as a projection!

For reference, the highest unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 25% in 1933.

ES daily. Up against the EMA 20.

Al_Dente wrote:where is everyone?

Sleeping.

ES 5. Stalled out after a good move up. Up against resistance.

Dow 30. A sea of green. JNJ, MSFT and MRK amongst the leaders. BA grounded.

Cuomo STREAMING from Javitz… just started
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA-nWVyZ74w