04/14/2020 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is up.
However, we are seeing a notable negative NYMO divergence with today's price highs.
As Friday was a record NYMO high, I anticipate that it will also be the cycle high.
That suggests that prices above Friday's high will be given up eventually.

Plenty of gaps in both directions.

Things are looking pretty wedgie to me.
So, maybe a consolidation or breakdown ahead.

I am flat. Longs got profit stopped yesterday.
No swing trades on deck at the moment.

[Al_Dente]

“Markets and economists are still too upbeat on coronavirus...'This alarming rise in unemployment is encouraging households to be more cautious on spending. It is not too early to consider a parallel with lasting frugal behaviour on the part of the generation that experienced the Great Depression.' [FT]

"I’m not a scientist, but I just don’t see the psyche of people — I don’t see people coming out of this and rushing out to start traveling and having big conventions." [NYT]

And more via Jesse Felder. LOOK AT THESE THREE CHARTS PLEASE:
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/ ... 60/photo/1

[Al_Dente]

[Chart from Leuthold Group, re-tweeted by Business Insider and Jesse Felder]

I know it’s questionable to compare 2020 to previous crashes, but I was captivated by the three charts above, and attempted to recreate them (approximately) using today’s market. So, Grain-Of-Salt:
The black line is the “filter” for 20% price swings. It shows what we all know: that we are currently on a “V” shape recovery.
Nobody knows how all of this is going to play out, but if the past is any guide, at a bare minimum... the “V” will be tested….

[Junior Buffett]

[Chart from Leuthold Group, re-tweeted by Business Insider and Jesse Felder]

414comparing bears.png.png

I know it’s questionable to compare 2020 to previous crashes, but I was captivated by the three charts above, and attempted to recreate them (approximately) using today’s market. So, Grain-Of-Salt:
The black line is the “filter” for 20% price swings. It shows what we all know: that we are currently on a “V” shape recovery.
Nobody knows how all of this is going to play out, but if the past is any guide, at a bare minimum... the “V” will be tested….

414v shape.png.png

We are already more than 20% from the march low. Are you saying that chances are that we see 2018/19 V recovery?

[Heck]

Consolidation, breakout is more likely.

Good call

[Heck]

ISEE retroactively changed their data

Still Three Opening Long Undervalued Index PUTS for every call = DOWN DOWN DOWN

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/isee-index

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

[JFR]

ES daily. Up against a resistance level.

[JFR]

ES 5. Getting squeezed by a pivot and a resistance level.