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04/18/2020 Weekend Update

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MrMiyagi
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Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Post by MrMiyagi »

QED wrote:Look at the charts! :shock:
You need to think of the reasons BEHIND the current situation - business shutdowns and reduced capacity operations in the US for example. Then think of re-opening that is currently happening in Asia and Europe, as well as in some parts of USA.

In 2001 that LEi drop did not last long, in fact it isn't that much off from current decline.

That's why I say it depends on what happens going forward. Re-opening industries while keeping a few others like movie theaters and sporting venues closed will cause a reversal of LEI and a sharp drop in unemployment numbers. You can't just point to past events and say 'therefore now'.
QED
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Joined: Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:04 pm

Re: 04/18/2020 Weekend Update

Post by QED »

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" ... That monthly 20MA coincides perfectly with the monthly 5 EMA another key MA offering confluence resistance. Coincidence?

Doubtful. This was a key technical tag.

But the month is not over. But what appears clear here is that how the month closes is critically important. If the Fed can maintain control and entice investors to keep chasing a fundamentally not justified multiple expansion then we should see price close above these two MAs by the end of April.

Should the Fed lose control and fundamentals will start dominating the price action then we should see the month close below these two MA’s. In 2000 and 2007 it was the month after the 20MA tags that the price action showed significant retraces. If we see a replay then May could shape  up to be a very difficult month for bulls ..."

https://northmantrader.com/2020/04/18/just-one-chart/

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merryme
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Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:41 pm

Re: 04/18/2020 Weekend Update

Post by merryme »

To me, the biggest problem is corporate debt. Sooner or later a corporation has too much debt. They won't be able to meet their obligations to pay on the debt. Who will loan them more money? The FED? Corporations used debt to fund buybacks. Now their shares are down and often worth less than they paid for them on the open market.

What happens to an individual when they have too much debt in a downturn that creates unemployment at this level? Hunger, stress, bankruptcy. And, suicides. (Sorry, reality like this is ugly.)

What happens to small businesses? What happens to corporations? We are headed to a HUGE default on debt. FEDs can't print enough money to cover this mess. FEDs will probably default too. RATS!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/moodys- ... ative.html
Sharing research and ideas only, this is not trading advice.
“If people concentrated on the really important things in life, there’d be a shortage of fishing poles.” – Doug Larson
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BullBear52x
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Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 04/18/2020 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Have we overlooked the free money, if I have un-limit amount of cash or credit like the FED does, every thing is cheap. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... trends.htm
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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JFR
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Re: 04/18/2020 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
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