Weekend Watering

[99er]

Good Morning.

Updates

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_17.html
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/rut_17.html
NDX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ndx.html
TNX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/tnx_17.html

And a cartoon http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/austerity.html

[99er]

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/copper_17.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude_17.html

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold_17.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/silver_17.html

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar_17.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/30y_17.html

More tomorrow. Have a nice weekend!

[Al_Dente]

Yo weekenders:
ANY DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SPX AND BONDS ??
I keep hearing some folks on board say that bonds always win and I DO NOT SEE their chart “proof.”
Bonds DON’T always win, see for yourself… charts linked below.
Here’s my old chart from when I was using TLT, and I won’t be updating this chart (run it youself using $UST or $USB; similar results).
NOTE SPECIFICALLY:
SPX called the 2010 correction bottom (via divergence)
Bonds called the May 2011 top (via divergence)
Oct 2011 “bottom” was a tie (no divergence)
And that’s just going back two years folks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p= ... =244077507

I ran a new chart I’ll be using with our beautiful little $TNX yield.
Sure enough, $TNX did call Oct 2011 a “bottom” just by a little “smidge” divergence, while SPX is still calling this a “top.”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p ... =251204422

[Al_Dente]

PAGING GOLD NUTS
All “IMHO”…
Weekly: first time since 2009 RSI/CCI dropped below its 50 yard line, not good.
Tips are still calling gold higher while the (inverted) dollar and yield/gov bond rates are calling gold lower.
At the moment I believe Tips (inflation expections) as they have a better record historically in guiding gold than the $ and yield.
I’m using TNX here as a “proxy” for uncontrollable government debt (which gold historically responds to). If you have a better debt alternative PLEASE POST.
But if/when gold convincingly breaks its September low, then all bets are off, and old Al will be very pist.
And if that descending triangle plays out then, well you know, then we’re in trouble.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD& ... listNum=15

Daily: ChiO indicates bottom zone, RSI/CCI oversold and ready to bounce.
TIPS broke ABOVE triangle, while gold, ouch, didn’t.
Daily… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD& ... =240748015

Gold vs the dollar: the dollar broke out (bear spy), gold broke down but not to lower lows (DIVERGENCE).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =243041690

Intraday, buy buy buy… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p= ... =240748012

Here note: gold and silver lost their correlation with $SPX this month. What does that mean please??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248615144

Yo: gold-nuts on board: please point out what Al has missed and show your stuff please.

I’m off to Palm Springs. See you Monday, have a nice weekend all.

[dcurban1]

First quarter is a seasonally strong period for gold and none of the problems in Europe or Washington have been solved.

If anything, things are getting worse.

For everyone crying about the drop in gold it is still outperforming the broader market by a pretty good margin.

Gold typically has 15-20% corrections in a year but now that the price has gone so high the dollar amounts get larger and become more noticeable.

Final point, gold moves in spurts. If you look at the monthly chart going back 10 years you see 12-18 month periods of sideways trading punctuated with 7-10 months of upward spikes. This move up was the longest run in the last 10 years.

I expect gold to trade higher next year and break out to new highs sometime in the next 12-18 months. The upward spikes are somewhere near 50% so I would expect the next leg to take us somewhere in the area of 2800/oz.

This is the point of my Monday article. The bull market is not over yet by a longshot.

[cougar]

99er and Al: nice charts posted by both of you!
Great work!

[cougar]

SPY 130 min: where support becomes resistance.

[cougar]

VIX is still doing time before its own OpEx…
Tuesday should be a good entry time…after the SPX action would give us some hints.

[cougar]

For SPX mid-term, there is one thing I watch: the escape from a zone defined by two ellipses and a “fan domain”.

[cougar]

Daily and intra-day IWM charts can be seen as “essentially bullish” by a market-trusting optimist, who hates “ZeroHedge” and thinks that “the bernank” is the reincarnation of Keynes …while “turbo-tax-tim” is that of Hamilton.

But, a contrarian might think that IWM hit a tree and all it could do was to defend the 72 level, so that the Dec puts would expire worthless…which they did.

VICTORY!

[BullBear52x]

Hello every one, another day different charts, I wonder, is the Golden number of .618 is about to tell us something? it's has been my favorite number (.618/.382) once this number failed to support a move to the other side is high from my observation, that number stands at .382/116ish.

now looking back since Oct low leg up, are the big guys really trying to fight off and held on this level? if so it should be saved once again, No?

or the down trend line is to resume its destination now that both Bulls and Bears point A and B got spank

In any cases The short term trend is down, sell the rally, any buy is for counter trend and if any bounce I will see it as dead cat bounce until further strength can be seen. see RSI and simple moving averages.

On the intraday level many of us probably see the internals gaining some strength here, but the buyers can be wrong at this major support also, so, any thing below my recent yellow line area I will see it as a continuation play that is sell on.

[BullBear52x]

All posters, who posted and will be posted

Thank you, keep them coming.

[99er]

Got Gold? Are you sure?

The bottom line is that apparently some warehouses and bullion dealers are not a safe place to store your gold and silver, even if you hold a specific warehouse receipt.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... tomer.html

[dcurban1]

If you have any physical you should have storage in Canada where re-hypothecation is not allowed.

Try that in Canada and the government will eat you alive.

[minthan]

QE3 Jan/Feb 2012 or 2nd Great Depression?

[BullBear52x]

Daily and intra-day IWM charts can be seen as “essentially bullish” by a market-trusting optimist, who hates “ZeroHedge” and thinks that “the bernank” is the reincarnation of Keynes …while “turbo-tax-tim” is that of Hamilton.

But, a contrarian might think that IWM hit a tree and all it could do was to defend the 72 level, so that the Dec puts would expire worthless…which they did.

VICTORY!

IWM, TRAN, EEM, MID are among the strongest link, the funny part is XLF is weak but BKX is strong on Friday, confusing market.

[99er]

Honey...haven't you been on your computer long enough?

Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurusd_17.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/es_17.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ym_17.html
DWCF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dwcf_17.html

Time to Occupy The Kitchen!

Have a good one.

[99er]

Updates

AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/audjpy_18.html
Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/copper_18.html

And that cop... http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/cop.html

Have a good one.

[99er]

Weekend Reading

Too many things that can potentially go wrong, and some of them will. Too many different cultures and languages. Too many different and divergent interests. That's Europe's history, and it will be its future.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... rn-of.html

[ocassional observer]

i'll start with the weekly IWM:

IWM remains between strong support and resistance lines created by trendlines, MA's and fibonnaci retracements. a break outside this area will lead to a strong move in either direction. i see that many ppl compare this time to aug 10 before the strong rally. while the similarities are clear i would like to point your attention to the MACD, which barely crossed zero in 2010 while now is still negative. this suggests to me that this downturn is much stronger and i'll require stronger evidence and much higher prices to change long term stance. this position is supported by the global economic situation as can be seen from JPM global manafacturing PMI:

we're not in Kansas anymore...
the daily IWM remains inside the triangle with bearish short term momentum: