05/02/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 63% chances to close up.

[Al_Dente]

WEEK AT A GLANCE

[Al_Dente]

BONDS: HERE WE GO, MYSTERY SOLVED.
Thursday, zh:  "what is most interesting is that so far the Fed has not yet purchased a single corporate bond, whether investment grade... [or] … junk. In other words, without lifting a finger, the Fed's "whatever it takes" jawboning managed to inject trillions "in value" in countless debt and credit products."
Today, Friday, bond king Jeff Gundlach tweeted that "… the Fed has not actually bought any Corporate Bonds via the shell company set up to circumvent the restrictions of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  Must be the most effective jawboning success in Fed history if that is true."
Daily chart, 2 months

[jademann]

Sold everything and am now flat.
What was support this morning is now strong overhead resistance:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis ... 8&cobrand=

[Heck]

QQQ Testing 2000 Highs

[Heck]

ZH

Amazon Shares Tumble - 6.4 %

California New York Gig Workers Face Tumultuous Race Between Unemployment Benefits And May Rent

CTAs Hammered After Turning "+100% Long" As Gamma Craters

Deutsche Bank Starts Charging Negative Rate On All New Deposit Accounts Over €100,000

Exxon Reports First Quarterly Loss In 32 Years

First Time Retail Investors Piled Into Stocks During March Plunge

Government On The Hook To Forgive Hundreds Of Billions In PPP Loans,
Has No Idea How They'll Do It

LatAm Bailout Veteran Says Emerging Market Crisis Is The "Worst He's Ever Seen"

SUVs Parked In The Middle Of The Ocean As Auto Inventory Crisis Deepens

US Manufacturing Surveys Show Record Collapse In Output, Orders, & Jobs

US Oil Rig Count Collapses As Wave Of Shale Well Closures Begins

$70,000 Harvard warns of online only Fall Classes

Not the stuff of Bull Markets

[JFR]

https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

[jademann]

QQQ Testing 2000 Highs

Heck, I see your point
https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosstraders/

[Heck]

QQQ Testing 2000 Highs

Heck, I see your point
https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosstraders/

"Daytrading? Well, I guess that is about the fastest way to die of a heart attack I know of."

Frankie Joe

[jademann]

hehe its actually my attempt at a porn site

[BullBear52x]

From " From it is what it is department" Key focus, An early stage of a trend reversal, Fundamental and technical demand it, market should be correction, but on the other side of the coin is power that be with unlimited of resources to do what it take to save this marker. in TA point of view, stick on what is in front of you.

Weely candle can not be any more bearish than this. lets hope that mid up channel can hold up.

the fear is on the rise with no panic to call out to.

1-2-3 trend reversal? not quite there either if you are looking at a daily trend change pattern. under 2600 to really say the bulls are out. under 2700 alot of bear will celebrate but I think 2600 is really a support to make or break for good.

On my regular swing position, Bulls are losing 5 DMA support, for me it is easy decision, sell the rip until it failed, for now No LL to call out to confirm trend change, the HH should gain a little respect here. For this time frame (5min) a trade under 2750 will confirm trend change from up to down. so...short term intraday going into next week, find excuse to sell until it doesn't so. keep it easy, Peace!

[Heck]

VOO Target - 61 %
From 262.85 to 102.96
- 2.5 % Dividend Yield

[Al_Dente]

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY
https://allstarcharts.com/wp-content/up ... ktable.png

Dow Stocks’ Behavior Says More Uptrend Ahead
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_c ... end_ahead/

Performance After 10% Up Months
"... there may not be a clear edge looking forward"
https://quantifiableedges.com/performan ... up-months/

[Heck]

FB Target - 71 %
From 207.28 to 60.83

[Heck]

BRK WEB Annual
https://finance.yahoo.com/BRKlivestream/

In mid March the financial system came to a halt
And the Fed did what it took
We do not know the consequences

We sold $ 2.7 B equities in first Q 2020
We sold $ 6.5 B equities in April 2020

[tim-follows]

re Daytrading, hahaha....first half of last week was low volume upticks overnight, then heavy selling near cash closing.

Cobra 's SentimenTrader charts for Seasonality, http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/seasona ... h-and-day/ show a 70% probability of positive close on 2nd may trading day (butt the data may be a bit outdated).
Sunday night, looking for SP futures to range between 2790 and 2850 and then see how cash opens...these are difficult markets to daytrade short hahaha.

Does anyone know more current updated seasonality charts?

[Heck]

NVS Target + 58 %
From 82.97 to 131
+ 3.7 % Swiss Dividend

15 % ROE
71 % Margins
72 % Debt/Equity

[Heck]

GOLD Target + 87 %
From 25.16 to 46.92
+ 1 % Canada Dividend

29 % Margin
27 % ROE
26 % Debt/Equity

[jademann]

My take away from the qqq chart here is that if this is a repeat of 2000, then we are going to go sideways for 3 months..

https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosstraders/index

[tim-follows]

also, tendency for spy to consolidate +/- 7 points around the 89 day ema for a week or two