Cobra's Market View

Up 1 week, 77% chances higher high ahead the next week so maybe still some up rooms.

SentimenTrader:
Since 1928, there have been 29 streaks that have stretched to at least 20 days — and 21 of them ended with the S&P 500 falling below the 50-day average, while only eight ended with a push above the 200-day, making for a roughly 72% probability the index will break down.

But even if the index were to defy the odds and break to the upside, it might not offer investors much comfort. When that’s happened in the past, the median return a year later was minus 9.2%, with equities producing a positive return just 38% of the time, he found.

Relative Strength ON THE WEEK

WEEK AT A GLANCE

https://www.marketwatch.com/

MarketWatch references SentimentTrader, as did Pasta Boss above ...

‘Trapped between time frames’
At the same time, it’s held above its 50-day moving average, a metric used by traders to gauge an asset’s short-term trend. In other words, stocks are “trapped between time frames” wrote Jason Goepfert, head of SentimenTrader and founder of independent investment research firm Sundial Capital Research, in a Friday note (see chart below). Through Friday’s close, the index had remained between the 50- and 200-day averages for 21 straight sessions.

S&P 500 After Memorial Day
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6188 ... morial-day

We all know that Health and Tech have been leading since the 2/19 low.
Note that Health flashed a prescient signal back in late January/early February … and now a TRIPLE-TOP pattern, which tends to favor the breakout that Health desperately needs. That negative divergence needs to be cured PRONTO …

The real question is: how long can 5 stocks (Tech) continue to hold up the entire market?
[FYI: FB and AMZN and NFLX made all-time-highs this week. So did FDN, but the $NYFANG Index did not.]

Consensus target for the bulls appears to be ~3000 (the SPX 200dma) but it could go as high as 3137 (the 3 March high, where it could double-top) before a sizeable pullback. The first bear target is a test of ~2700.

Every weekend I try to predict VIX for the next few days:
https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosst ... al-candles

Based on this, although there are some tiny gains, there is not enough reward for me to justify participating on the long side.

If the VIX follows the VIX spike of January 2019, then it will be Aug 1st before the next major VIX spike, rising from a VIX low of ~15.
Of course this is going to be as accurate as a long term weather forecast!

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If anyone wants Lance Roberts' (RealInvestmentAdvice.com) chart ...

http://schrts.co/hYGCMigK


Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear- ... correction

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jademann wrote:Every weekend I try to predict VIX for the next few days:
https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosst ... al-candles

Based on this, although there are some tiny gains, there is not enough reward for me to justify participating on the long side.

If the VIX follows the VIX spike of January 2019, then it will be Aug 1st before the next major VIX spike, rising from a VIX low of ~15.
Of course this is going to be as accurate as a long term weather forecast!

jademann,
How do you get Yahoo! chart to fill the area between EMA(4) and EMA(8), and make price invisible?
Thanks.

QED wrote:http://schrts.co/hYGCMigK

Thanks for that boss

ELSEWHERE
Jay Leno drives Elon Musk around in the 2021 Tesla Cybertruck
The first 2:27 minutes of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3BH8edQVZ4

also:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Divergence in the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE isn’t new
In the old days (last year) the dictum was “The Dow Leads”
Now it’s only 5 stocks that lead, and you know who you are.
They represent the highest concentration on record... [according to GS, this week]

Al_Dente wrote:

QED wrote:http://schrts.co/hYGCMigK

Thanks for that boss

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TSF, I generate the Yahoo chart from the links below the chart.
I make the chart a line chart, then I left click on "SPY" and change the line color to white.
Then I use windows snip to copy into paste into paint shop pro.
Then I use the fill command to generate the red and green long short rules

I only did to illustrate the rules. you don't need to do it every time.

My take is we will be up trending until November election with a few well placed scary drops thrown in when needed.

Underlying: The Win-Win - the group in charge right now has shown they will manipulate whatever they can to stay in charge. Their four year run is up for decision in November.

Scenario 1 - run the market up and up to help their chances to make the narrative look good to give them the best chance at another four years. The leverage has all been changed with a $5T++ war chest and an outright statement of the Fed and Treasury to support prices. All the major players are on board and are on the same team. No one is breaking ranks. Both sides are now aligned with the $5T in funds. Crumbs for the masses (loaves of bread being tossed to placate) while the majority of the $5T is routed from the taxpayer’s future into the hands of the controllers. Keep the facade up for the next six months and the next four years are nearly assured.

Scenario 2 - IF there is any concern about the election not going to the current group, then this will necessitate a grab as much as we can while we can. The $5T is up for grabs and directing to themselves. No oversight, inside information, knowledge of timing of statements/policy changes, etc. Prepositioning to reap the rewards. If the masses get restless, if the opponents look to be getting an edge, then time for a little scary reminder to the masses not to rock the boat. A bark here and there to turn the herd back towards the current group. The grab all they can will necessitate increasing the prices, so up we go until Election Day.

What player is out there to challenge this?? China?? They have been relegated to a small bit player w the $5T. The US basically inflated the deficit 25% over a weekend with the message to China to go ahead and dump your $1T+ in Treasury holdings on the market, we will absorb all you want to sell without a blip. Russia?? There is no large enough player to counter this and even those players would be onboard with getting what they can to not fall further behind. Greed/FOMO is in play. It’s all aligned.

As I am writing this next paragraph I am at a loss for any word other than “ethically” - ethically we should be in an economic crash headed for a depression. Massive unemployment, mortgage defaults, bankruptcies, massive hits to productivity, etc., at least that is what my Econ Degree points to.

I was going to use the words theoretically, fundamentally, logically, rationally, etc. to say we should be in a crash. But all those words have to be used in the shadow of $5T of influence on decision making, $5T with a stated purpose of supporting the market applied to any of those words says up and overrides nearly all the other factors normally considered.

Now, the question for ME is can I put MY ethics, MY logic aside to ride this for profit? Swim with the sharks?? Have to become a shark? Sheesh, time for coffee - rant/musings off.

Have a great holiday and huge THANK YOU to Cobra and all who are on this board sharing/contributing. Man, it has been lots of years!

Be safe and aware/considerate of others. Peace.

SP.1 Jun Fut SELLING < 2,986.25

Memorial Day Market Holiday

[quote="1der"]My take...

Thoughtful comments

Meantime
Donald Trump claimed he could "stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody" and not "lose any voters."

1der, trying to analyze made me poor for a decade. The only thing that works for me are charts and ignoring when things are absurd.

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What is it Robintrack?
Robintrack keeps track of how many Robinhood users hold a particular stock over time. It generates charts showing the relationship between price and popularity, and compiles some lists using the data.

What can it do?
One of the most useful things that you can do with the data that this site provides is to figure out how people are reacting to moves in the market. Depending on if people are buying the dip, getting onboard during a pump because they think it's going to go higher, or taking profits, this data lets you observe each of those different situations and plan your own trading accordingly.

How it works
Every hour, the price and popularity for every stock on Robinhood is downloaded from the Robinhood API and stored. By combining all of these data points together, it's possible to view trends and analyze the ways in which they both change with respect to each other and over time.

Robintrack
https://robintrack.net/

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