12/23/2011 Intraday Watering

[L_T]

I wouldn't load up on UGA right now. Wait to either break above obvious trend line and 200 day MA or move lower to support below.

[Cobra]

Why buy TZA? I will short TNA next week or when the next set up pops...

It is the same essentially as far as % gain or loss however, at least here in Canada, when you short a stock you get taxed differently as you never intended to hold the equity in the first place. TZA in this case benefits from capital gains taxation which is much lower.

From my experience not the same % today at this moment TZA lost .74% TNA gain .91% and if you want to buy long etf it's better in most case the shor etfs claw so slowly to gain its footing here if you short TZA you win. no matter how IWM do and the bear market will do the same to long etfs, so if you do pair trade you will see what I meant.

The problem is everyone knows to short 3x ETF so whenever it's at key time, you're not allowed to short or you're forced to cover because no stocks to lend to you. So theoretically, you can short 3x ETF but in reality it's not that easy to hold long.

[MrMiyagi]

The problem is everyone knows to short 3x ETF so whenever it's at key time, you're not allowed to short or you're forced to cover because no stocks to lend to you. So theoretically, you can short 3x ETF but in reality it's not that easy to hold long.

Main thing is the taxation.

[99er]

sgregs

Regarding falling equity and bond prices: I agree with you. See this:

"Suppressing fire, creating the illusion of fire protection, leads to the wrong kind of growth, which then invites greater destruction. About 100 years ago, the U.S. Forest Service took a zero-tolerance approach to forest fires, stamping them out at the first blaze. Fast forward to 1988 when a massive wildfire at Yellowstone National Park wiped out more than 30 times the acreage of any previously recorded fire." Another way of calling this, is what we have been warning about for years: delaying mean reversion does nothing but that. And when the Fed finally fails to offset the inevitable, and it will - it is a 100% certainty - the collapse and destruction will be unprecedented. Ironically, the only way the system could have been saved would be by letting it fail in 2008. Now, we are sorry to say, it is too late.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/black-swa ... med-us-all

[silicon_beaver]

Why buy TZA? I will short TNA next week or when the next set up pops...

It is the same essentially as far as % gain or loss however, at least here in Canada, when you short a stock you get taxed differently as you never intended to hold the equity in the first place. TZA in this case benefits from capital gains taxation which is much lower.

From my experience not the same % today at this moment TZA lost .74% TNA gain .91% and if you want to buy long etf it's better in most case the shor etfs claw so slowly to gain its footing here if you short TZA you win. no matter how IWM do and the bear market will do the same to long etfs, so if you do pair trade you will see what I meant.

The problem is everyone knows to short 3x ETF so whenever it's at key time, you're not allowed to short or you're forced to cover because no stocks to lend to you. So theoretically, you can short 3x ETF but in reality it's not that easy to hold long.

exactly my broker's problem.

[BullBear52x]

The problem is everyone knows to short 3x ETF so whenever it's at key time, you're not allowed to short or you're forced to cover because no stocks to lend to you. So theoretically, you can short 3x ETF but in reality it's not that easy to hold long.

Main thing is the taxation.

I thought in Canada there's free health care, school, retirement benefits all for free, they tax?

[CognitiveDissonance]

still holding...

[Anaconda]

sgregs

Regarding falling equity and bond prices: I agree with you. See this:

"Suppressing fire, creating the illusion of fire protection, leads to the wrong kind of growth, which then invites greater destruction. About 100 years ago, the U.S. Forest Service took a zero-tolerance approach to forest fires, stamping them out at the first blaze. Fast forward to 1988 when a massive wildfire at Yellowstone National Park wiped out more than 30 times the acreage of any previously recorded fire." Another way of calling this, is what we have been warning about for years: delaying mean reversion does nothing but that. And when the Fed finally fails to offset the inevitable, and it will - it is a 100% certainty - the collapse and destruction will be unprecedented. Ironically, the only way the system could have been saved would be by letting it fail in 2008. Now, we are sorry to say, it is too late.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/black-swa ... med-us-all

Exactly. Only 2 places to consider hanging out: Short (and risk not recovering your winnings) or in Cash. Or, Kaprun, or Amalfi, or...but I digress.
A.

[67Chevy]

I wouldn't load up on UGA right now. Wait to either break above obvious trend line and 200 day MA or move lower to support below.

That's one way to look at it...here's a shorter term view.

[99er]

sgregs

ZB-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/zb-es.html

It's only a matter of time.

[xiaohehua]

Paging Al about that trading books link yesterday: that site had "sketchy" written all over it but I downloaded one of those .pdf's anyway. My bad because it loaded me up with Scareware/virus thing. I had to restore my PC to a few weeks back to get rid of it. Just wanted to warn you.

OMG I AM SO SORRY, I USE IT WITH NO PROBLEMS
I’LL NEVER POST THAT LINK AGAIN, THANKS, MY APOLOGIES, MY BAD
PS: I always prefer buying books on paper from Cobra’s amazon link.

Hi Everyone, Just registered here, but been following it for quite sometime. Learned so much, Thanks for all the excellent charts and posts.

Just report, I down load the steve nelson book yesterday, no problem so far. Thanks.

[99er]

Anaconda

Digress on. Inspiration for the New Year.

[L_T]

I wouldn't load up on UGA right now. Wait to either break above obvious trend line and 200 day MA or move lower to support below.

That's one way to look at it...here's a shorter term view.

Nice one! Time frame definitely makes a difference. I didn't bother to pull up a longer or shorter term chart than the daily. The logic you gave made me think of a holding period of weeks to months.....maybe a weekly chart would work better?

[99er]

SPX

No more Mulligans.

[Cobra]

Paging Al about that trading books link yesterday: that site had "sketchy" written all over it but I downloaded one of those .pdf's anyway. My bad because it loaded me up with Scareware/virus thing. I had to restore my PC to a few weeks back to get rid of it. Just wanted to warn you.

OMG I AM SO SORRY, I USE IT WITH NO PROBLEMS
I’LL NEVER POST THAT LINK AGAIN, THANKS, MY APOLOGIES, MY BAD
PS: I always prefer buying books on paper from Cobra’s amazon link.

Hi Everyone, Just registered here, but been following it for quite sometime. Learned so much, Thanks for all the excellent charts and posts.

Just report, I down load the steve nelson book yesterday, no problem so far. Thanks.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[bobo]

I live in a suburb of Vancouver, British Columbia and trust me we are taxed on practically everything except food and prescriptions and a few other things. We pay for our health care, but in many cases our employer picks up the tab . Health care just happens to be a lot cheaper than in the US. We pay federal and provincial income tax. Alberta is the lowest taxed jurisdiction in Canada and is debt free.

I pay both provincial and federal income tax and 12% tax on virtually everything I buy and more on top of that on gasoline and booze.

I can drive 5 miles and be in Washington state and can save $25 on a tank of gas and buy Molson Canadain beer (if I wanted to) cheaper than in BC.

Companies provide pension plans as does the government.

There are property taxes that go towards covering the cost of schools but there is tuition at universities and other post-seconary institutions.

The problem is everyone knows to short 3x ETF so whenever it's at key time, you're not allowed to short or you're forced to cover because no stocks to lend to you. So theoretically, you can short 3x ETF but in reality it's not that easy to hold long.

Main thing is the taxation.

I thought in Canada there's free health care, school, retirement benefits all for free, they tax?

[Al_Dente]

Broadening the search:
10 days of internals and other indicators, in two charts, searching for confirmation and/or divergence, aka “Where’s Waldo”

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[CH37]

Hi, Cobra and everyone,

Merry Xmas and Happy New year .

[Me XMan]

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

[99er]

Update

NDX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ndx_23.html

Sleigh ride anyone?