The NYMO cycle appears to be up after a brief trip down an elevator shaft.
We hit an extreme high last week in the turn zone, plunged for three days and resumed climbing in positive territory.
Candidly, this looks more like corrective up action in an unfinished down cycle than an up cycle, but we mark the chart to the parameters of the model.
Price is forming an inside day inside a gap sandwich.
Perhaps an inside day break will tell which gap (up or down) will get closed first.
The downdraft counts as a test of both the 200 MA and the middle keltner band.
Closes above the June 8 high would constitute a pass and suggest a new bull market.
Closes below Monday's low would constitute a fail and suggest a possible test of the March low.
Stay tuned.
I have described last year in many posts as a gap year given the many overnight gaps that occurred.
This year may be turning out equally gappy but with a big difference.
Last year's gaps appear to be comparatively small compared to the whoppers we are seeing this year.
As I viewed all the gaps last year as something unhealthy in market function, I have to view the larger gaps as symptomatic of whatever the issue is getting worse.
I am flat and have not been participating in this market lately.
I have had some setups tee up, but the market has reversed before they trigger.