06/20/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, 77% chances higher high ahead the next week, so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.

[Al_Dente]

WEEK AT A GLANCE

[Al_Dente]

FOLLOW THE MONEY:
Top panel is the bond market, plus SPY in dashed-purple, and QQQ in dashed-black for comparison.
Daily, since 2/19 (the SPY equity high).
You can see that some folks are buying SPY (and SPY clones, and QQQ), as the FED and its followers are buying bonds.

6/18 zh: How much corporate bonds have the Fed bought? The latest total (as of June 17) for the Fed's Corporate Credit Facilities LLC was $6.6 billion in book value of holdings. Having started corporate bond ETF purchases on May 12, this means that the Fed has bought on average roughly $1.1 billion per week, a pace more than sufficient to result in record investment-grade and junk bond inflows.

6/19 NOMURA: Why aren’t CTAs buying more SPX futures? ... Because the 10yr yield ($TNX) is staying consistently low…. The failure of $TNX to breakout is putting a damper on the CTA buying of equities...CTAs are only at an early stage of accumulating long positions in US equity futures, and there is still quite a bit of leeway for more net buying.
… CTAs are past the peak in their accumulation of long Treasury positions… if the $TNX climbs back up, CTAs might well accelerate their selling of Treasury futures and buying of equity futures…

[Al_Dente]

“I stuck my neck out.”
Wolf Richter, who just shorted the entire market, long term, published this Friday:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploa ... change.png

[Al_Dente]

I just posted that Friday Nomura said: “CTAs are only at an early stage of accumulating long positions in US equity futures, and there is still quite a bit of leeway for more net buying.” …
Today GS in its latest weekly exposure report, notes that this panicked buying across hedge funds has continued and leverage is now in the 99th percentile, effectively the highest ever
… net buying was driven by long buying slightly outweighing short selling
…  the Info Tech sector was the most net bought sector driven by “risk on” flows of long buying outweighing short selling in a 1:8:1 ratio.
… despite the overall continue surge in bullish sentiment, single stock shorts in the US increased +2.7%…. Nine out of eleven sectors were shorted led by Real Estate and Industrials. Energy and Health Care were the only covered sectors.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department"Market bulls are losing momentum, all roads lead to south side for short term, Key focus Trend line the chart here is very self explanatory. weak momentum and hanging on a cliff.

Short term swing is leaning bearish now that the closed is under 5 DMA. a bearish engulfing and weak internals leading me to a little more bearish going into next week compare to last week. Range Hi and Range Lo is clear, Friday HOD and LOD is the tell of what to come by as early as Monday. Fears are high be careful out there. trade well, Peace!

[Heck]

SP.1 Sep Fut SELLING < 3,096.75