Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

   

06/24/2020 Live Update

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:45 pm

Here's what I mean Triangle
Attachments
2.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46447
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:53 pm

look at AD line
$VOLD on TOS (if you have them) one of my my favorite internals. the ugliest print in months if not years.....
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
 
Posts: 23012
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:32 pm


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46447
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby K447 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:33 pm

BullBear52x wrote:look at AD line
$VOLD on TOS (if you have them) one of my my favorite internals. the ugliest print in months if not years.....


Hmmm, my ThinkorSwim $VOLD chart certainly is not pretty, but looking at daily or hourly chart there are lots of longer red bars in the past. June 11 was more red

Am I looking at it wrong?
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:34 pm

I spent some time compiling this using WaybackMachine to get backdata.
Period covered is March 6th – current (prior to that it was just China).

Pre-June has gas in dates because I just wanted to get a general feel, therefore that part of the chart is smoother. I’ll fill in as my sanity permits. June is every day.

Recovery to Death ratio is now at 10.51 to 1 (not charted).

Capture.PNG
c19
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:42 pm

K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:look at AD line
$VOLD on TOS (if you have them) one of my my favorite internals. the ugliest print in months if not years.....


Hmmm, my ThinkorSwim $VOLD chart certainly is not pretty, but looking at daily or hourly chart there are lots of longer red bars in the past. June 11 was more red

Am I looking at it wrong?

I meant today's intraday's print, straight out red bars only. all dal, I use 15min.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
 
Posts: 23012
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:45 pm

Chart for the road: selling to continue, let it be bear flag or 5DMA, Resistance for rips selling is improving, not positive sign for short term in general. again, buy/sell until it fails. for now, find excuse to sell. Peace!
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
 
Posts: 23012
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby K447 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:48 pm

BullBear52x wrote:
K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:look at AD line
$VOLD on TOS (if you have them) one of my my favorite internals. the ugliest print in months if not years.....


Hmmm, my ThinkorSwim $VOLD chart certainly is not pretty, but looking at daily or hourly chart there are lots of longer red bars in the past. June 11 was more red

Am I looking at it wrong?

I meant today's intraday's print, straight out red bars only. all dal, I use 15min.

Even on 15 minute chart June 11 was more red.
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Re:

Postby K447 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:53 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:I spent some time compiling this using WaybackMachine to get backdata.
Period covered is March 6th – current (prior to that it was just China).

Pre-June has gas in dates because I just wanted to get a general feel, therefore that part of the chart is smoother. I’ll fill in as my sanity permits. June is every day.

Recovery to Death ratio is now at 10.51 to 1 (not charted).

...


Keep in mind that deaths lag behind infections by two weeks to four weeks. In effect people who die today were first reported as cases 2 to 4 weeks ago (roughly).

Shift the deaths line to the left by 2 to 4 weeks to align cases with resultant mortality.

Said another way, the people who have recently been reported as new cases, have not yet died.
Last edited by K447 on Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:54 pm


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46447
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:55 pm

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Thursday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46447
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:01 pm

K447 wrote:Keep in mind that deaths lag behind infections by two weeks to four weeks. In effect people who die today were first reported as cases 2 to 4 weeks ago (roughly).
Shift the deaths line to the left by 2 to 4 weeks to align cases with resultant mortality.
Said another way, the people who have recently been reported as new cases, have not yet died.


My friend... look at the frikking chart... You see the red line all the way at the bottom? You see the blue line at the top? Do you see anywhere when the red goes up to meet to parallel the blue?

Yeah, me neither

What I see though is the GREEN line moving higher, outpacing deaths every day - sure, there may be a temporary shift where it slows down, but eventually it continues higher while deaths diminish. Don't let the feamongering take your eyes off the reality.
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Re:

Postby K447 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:17 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:
K447 wrote:Keep in mind that deaths lag behind infections by two weeks to four weeks. In effect people who die today were first reported as cases 2 to 4 weeks ago (roughly).
Shift the deaths line to the left by 2 to 4 weeks to align cases with resultant mortality.
Said another way, the people who have recently been reported as new cases, have not yet died.


My friend... look at the frikking chart... You see the red line all the way at the bottom? You see the blue line at the top? Do you see anywhere when the red goes up to meet to parallel the blue?

Yeah, me neither

What I see though is the GREEN line moving higher, outpacing deaths every day - sure, there may be a temporary shift where it slows down, but eventually it continues higher while deaths diminish.
... reality.

Active cases and recent deaths are the trends that matter, with new cases front running deaths.

If these are trending up, then the virus spread is not decelerating.
I was speaking to the time relationship between active cases and deaths.

Recoveries are nice to see, but not useful for forecasting the forward progression of the pandemic.
Same for total cases, number reflects testing and spread (to a degree) but newly active cases are the front line.
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:21 pm

K447 wrote:Active cases and recent deaths are the trends that matter, with new cases front running deaths.

If these are trending up, then the virus spread is not decelerating.
I was speaking to the time relationship between active cases and deaths.

Recoveries are nice to see, but not useful for forecasting the forward progression of the pandemic.
Same for total cases, number reflects testing and spread (to a degree) but newly active cases are the front line.


Recoveries are ABSOLUTELY useful because they show that progressively less are dying as the propagation progresses and virus (most likely) is mutating to a weaker version.

As to the new cases to new deaths correlation, granted there is some delay but seriously, look at the chart. Just do yourself a favor and look at it. And then tell me this: if there is such a big correlation that everyone gets hard about, then why is the RED LINE OF DEATH not creeping higher and the GREEN LINE OF LIFE is?

The media never mentions recoveries because it isn't part of their narrative - same with the politicians that are intent on your newborns being outfitted with masks from day one to day dead.
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Re: 06/24/2020 Live Update

Postby Pauthi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:30 pm

US lifted lockdowns too early.

Image
User avatar
Pauthi
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:52 am

Re:

Postby K447 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:31 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:... look at the chart. ...

I did look at your chart.

My first thought was I would prefer to see the data as a bar chart rather than a cumulative line chart.
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:45 pm

Pauthi wrote:US lifted lockdowns too early.


People keep parading this chart around - US IS A HUGE COUNTRY WHILE EU IS A BUNCH OF SMALL COUNTRIES AND EASIER TO GOVERN CLOSURES.


Chart is for New York State - compared to western states like Arizona and Texas, it had a surge in the spring, now down to non-fearmongering levels. I don't have time to post one from Texas but it is the opposite, low numbers in March, high numbers now.

Ask yourself: WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL THESE CHARTS EVENTUALLY - answer is they all go down.

Quit panicking just like the media and knee-bending pathetic politicians want you to, the same ones that want your faces masked up and all your movements traced.

jj.PNG
NYS
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:53 pm

K447 wrote:I did look at your chart.

My first thought was I would prefer to see the data as a bar chart rather than a cumulative line chart.


1) As mentioned earlier, early data has gaps
2) Wasn't sure which you meant, daily or cumulative so here you go, you got both
3) In the Daily chart, the Deaths are hard to see because they are tiny bars relative to new & recovered.

ppp.PNG
cumulative


hg.PNG
daily
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Postby MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:03 pm

K447 wrote:Shift the deaths line to the left by 2 to 4 weeks to align cases with resultant mortality.


Not enough datapoints, the chart will be inaccurate.
User avatar
MrMiyagi
 
Posts: 10301
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:48 pm

Re:

Postby K447 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:22 am

MrMiyagi wrote:...
2) Wasn't sure which you meant, daily or cumulative so here you go, you got both
3) In the Daily chart, the Deaths are hard to see because they are tiny bars relative to new & recovered.

download/file.php?id=127542&mode=view


Active cases not shown?

Thanks for doing the work to rechart the data.
K447
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am

Previous

Return to Traders Lounge

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests