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It is not a surprise, just venting a little bit. My comment does not mean I do not appreciate the TA or the charts that folks provide. It's all in the timing. If I was not a fan, I would not read this board everyday.jarbo456 wrote:this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.tdo722 wrote:lol, finally someone said it.quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.
ahhh...yeah. to be honest, and i hope this doesn't offend 99er...but i do find his butterflies are usually a touch early. there seems to always be a little more room to run before they head down...could just be a channel issue. i do see he updates his channels as the the price sometimes jumps to a larger one.quatzl wrote:It is not a surprise, just venting a little bit. My comment does not mean I do not appreciate the TA or the charts that folks provide. It's all in the timing. If I was not a fan, I would not read this board everyday.jarbo456 wrote:this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.tdo722 wrote:lol, finally someone said it.quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.
BullBear52x wrote:Tomorrow gap up with high volume will be my dream entry, roll down from here I will not feel good for da bears.
Yes, counter trend entry.Mr. T wrote:BullBear52x wrote:Tomorrow gap up with high volume will be my dream entry, roll down from here I will not feel good for da bears.
Your dream short entry?
jarbo456 wrote:this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.tdo722 wrote:lol, finally someone said it.quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.
Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
Signal is at 13.45 pm or 14.00 pm...uempel wrote:15 min chart shows a signal in the afternoon. SPX' action until then? I have no idea. Breakout to the upside in order to pull in bears? Or vice versa? My guess is a sideways move and then a liftoff. But it's a mere guess...
SB73 wrote:Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
They are in the Bahama's for the week.waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
Are you still short or did you cover. I am sitting this one out. If I am really disciplined I won't trade until January.silicon_beaver wrote:SB73 wrote:Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
No vol means high cost for bear, Cobra mentioned.