12/27/2011 Intraday Watering

quatzl · Post by **quatzl** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:55 pm

jarbo456 wrote:
tdo722 wrote:
quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
lol, finally someone said it.
this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.

full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.

It is not a surprise, just venting a little bit. My comment does not mean I do not appreciate the TA or the charts that folks provide. It's all in the timing. If I was not a fan, I would not read this board everyday.

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:56 pm

Update:

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:03 pm

DBV here, reversal candles so far, bears need a little more work on the MACD

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:04 pm

quatzl wrote:
jarbo456 wrote:
tdo722 wrote:
quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
lol, finally someone said it.
this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.

full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.
It is not a surprise, just venting a little bit. My comment does not mean I do not appreciate the TA or the charts that folks provide. It's all in the timing. If I was not a fan, I would not read this board everyday.

ahhh...yeah. to be honest, and i hope this doesn't offend 99er...but i do find his butterflies are usually a touch early. there seems to always be a little more room to run before they head down...could just be a channel issue. i do see he updates his channels as the the price sometimes jumps to a larger one.

anyhoot...just my HUMBLE observation...i like the wolf waves...just think they sometimes come a little early...especially in the bearish case.

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:06 pm

Tomorrow gap up with high volume will be my dream entry, roll down from here I will not feel good for da bears.

Mr. T · Post by **Mr. T** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:08 pm

BullBear52x wrote:Tomorrow gap up with high volume will be my dream entry, roll down from here I will not feel good for da bears.

Your dream short entry?

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:10 pm

Mr. T wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:Tomorrow gap up with high volume will be my dream entry, roll down from here I will not feel good for da bears.

Your dream short entry?

Yes, counter trend entry.

99er · Post by **99er** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:17 pm

Ski Jumping

The still: SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_8838.html

The video:

Edit:

The jump will wait. Meanwhile...some snowboarding: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VvUREpi ... re=related

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:17 pm

We may have to wait until Thur/Fri for a change.I'm still waiting this is not much of a trading mkt.We may have lots of fun in Jan. Lets see.Don't listen to the cheer leaders out there.

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:19 pm

2 small legs up, as I said, bulls cannot fail here.

bonzodon · Post by **bonzodon** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:29 pm

hi Jarbo,
How do you trade? what is your trading stratedgy? you seems to be in the options. what options and durations you trade them...
This will help me to relate to you.
Luckily market is open today and no office so i could really post here....

Thanks,

jarbo456 wrote:
tdo722 wrote:
quatzl wrote:It appears butterflies and negative divergences do not matter. It's trading in candyland.
lol, finally someone said it.
this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. i don't think one can rely on normal TA during this period. it DOESN'T mean that should the market decide to snap back to reality on ANY day this week or next, that the butterflies or negD won't be honored. it just means that in this current market condition, it can remain irrational aka negatively divergent for far longer than the average individual can stay solvent. but when the market does decide to come back to planet earth, those that have sized correctly their butterfly and negD bets will probably be the ones laughing.

full disclosure: i'm 100 call options long SPY and 80 call options long of USO (and have been since the irrationality started) - i will close these as soon as i think the end of year fuel injection is done.

waverider · Post by **waverider** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:29 pm

Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:33 pm

Yellow lines, see RSI >50 not bad, don't want to drip down there, MACD not looking good here.

SB73 · Post by **SB73** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:34 pm

waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...

Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:34 pm

uempel wrote:15 min chart shows a signal in the afternoon. SPX' action until then? I have no idea. Breakout to the upside in order to pull in bears? Or vice versa? My guess is a sideways move and then a liftoff. But it's a mere guess...
2.png

Signal is at 13.45 pm or 14.00 pm...

silicon_beaver · Post by **silicon_beaver** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:38 pm

SB73 wrote:
waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.

No vol means high cost for bear, Cobra mentioned.

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:39 pm

Here is something to chew on..Since Oct/Nov 2010 to now we have been buiding a H & S Pattern on the NYA Monthly chart.It is now just about complete.Thing to remember is long time building and if it breakes to the dn side it will be a long time going dn.If so, long live the Perma Bears. 2012 will be in trouble..Lets wait and see.Take note BB52x and others. Let me know what you think.

dumamay · Post by **dumamay** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:40 pm

waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...

They are in the Bahama's for the week.

SB73 · Post by **SB73** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:42 pm

silicon_beaver wrote:
SB73 wrote:
waverider wrote:Where are the boys? I think this is the lowest volume monday of the year...
Volume is totally gone. If Waddell and Reed executed a short here we would have a flash crash.

No vol means high cost for bear, Cobra mentioned.

Are you still short or did you cover. I am sitting this one out. If I am really disciplined I won't trade until January.

Seawaves · Post by **Seawaves** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:49 pm

forget about TA, FA or whatever A,
just nobriain buy buy buy, till next year!

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12/27/2011 Intraday Watering

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