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Weekend Watering

Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:29 pm

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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:55 pm

PAGING GOLD BUGS and SHORT INTEREST FREAKS

Here’s the latest (27 Dec) NYSE short interest report… this great link is courtesy waverider
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

Interesting to note: the largest increase was GOLD (IAU) with a 745% increase in shorts…. hence large squeeze potential.
Also note the -62% decrease in short interest DZZ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQTzO2eRwwE
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:04 pm

Happy New Year !!
This last week was challenging to say the least, and exposed shortcomings in some of our indicators.
Mine in particular for example, when on Friday the market reversed down to lower lows on a measly ~1400 declining stocks out of ~3000. Unusual that less than half of all stocks downticking resulted in a drop like that.
Here’s a shortcoming with the NYADV/NYDEC. It measures breadth (3000+ stocks); it DOES NOT measure depth. In other words, if a stock is down five cents the NYSE computers see it as one single declining stock/issue. If another stock is down ten dollars or 15% (or whatever), the computers see it as one single declining stock/issue, even though its decline is radically deeper.

A cursory glance at ~3000 NYSE stocks Friday showed that about ~34 stocks were down 4% or more, which the NYSE counted as 34 stocks declining, versus for example International Paper IP which was down just four cents (-0.13%), and was counted as one declining stock.

I’ve never watched that before, so I have nothing to compare it against. I don’t do computer backtests, so I must move on. I just wanted to bring this shortcoming to your attention. Nothing is perfect….except Cobra… 8-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFFo1pu4 ... re=related
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby mozart » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:33 pm

Silver, touched support line, will it hold????
Anybody's guess!
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$SILVERNEW Gallery View - StockCharts.png
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby waverider » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:10 pm

On Friday I meant to write measured move down to 1252 /es, not $spx, apologies. That was quite a drop in the final five minutes to end the year slightly negative. I'm not permanently bearish or bullish, but from an investors point of view, it's made sense to be more bearish biased in the past decade because the S&P 500 has only gone sideways, and markets can fall much faster than they can rise. Obviously investors don't want to put their capital into a market that's had record volatility since the August 9th lows.

Also, for those blowing smoke saying "I think the market will be at 1300/1200 soon", these statements are completely invalid unless one can back it up with an excellent chart explaining why!

Thanks for the short interest link Al, it would be nice if WSJ would let us know how many of them were commercials and how many were specs.
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby deacoes » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:27 pm

My News Year Resolution - don't trade etf's and stick with long/short stock and some put/calls on IBD 50

just love the way FinViz calc's trend lines :twisted:

IBD50 (1/3/12) list for FinViz Screener in SnapShot view :
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t ... ,PCLN,ASML

List of IBD50 (1/3) sort desc per IBD rating

LQDT
ALXN
ISRG
QCOR
ULTA
MA
V
SWI
HMSY
PNRA
DLTR
GOLD
GOOG
TDG
ROST
DG
NUAN
CMG
BWLD
NUS
AAPL
FFIV
PRGO
PII
MELI
EBIX
TSCO
HANS
HUM
HIBB
GWW
CXO
CELG
CVLT
RGLD
SBNY
INT
TJX
TCBI
BIIB
FAST
HLF
HCP
AAP
VRSK
NTES
MNTA
ENDP
PCLN
ASML
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:14 pm

“Copper Weakness Is a Warning Sign”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... ning_sign/
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby KeiZai » Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:54 am

My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Seawaves » Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:38 pm

Is the euro debt crisis unsolvable? In 1982, we had similar Latin American debt crisis and what happened to the SPX then, seemed not a big deal at all :mrgreen:
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2012-01-01_TED_1982.png
2011-12-31_Ted_001.png
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby mozart » Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:05 pm

I hope that every one had good New Year night.
It's raining in Toronto right now.
Here are couple of charts that I follow:
Attachments
$SILVER ND- SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts - Paint_2012-01-01_19-02-46.png
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
$USD Gallery View - StockCharts.png
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Last edited by mozart on Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby trendfollower » Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:07 pm

Interesting article.

Title: "Market Looks Poised To Reverse Hard To Downside Within Days"

http://goo.gl/gt5Xx
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Seawaves » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:05 pm

Spx hourly still in the up channel, but be aware of the cycle turn.
Daily, seems broke symmetrical triangle and doing the backtest now.
Weekly, bull not out of the woods yet, under heavy resistance.
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2012-01-01_spx_weekly.png
2012-01-01_spx_daily.png
2012-01-01_spx_hourly.png
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby waverider » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:10 pm

Seawaves wrote:Is the euro debt crisis unsolvable? In 1982, we had similar Latin American debt crisis and what happened to the SPX then, seemed not a big deal at all :mrgreen:



Was the market going sideways for a decade in 1982? No, the trend was up. Also, please explain how the Latin American debt crisis was similar to the European crises. ;)
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby waverider » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:22 pm

$SPX.png
Edit. Who knows, maybe we gap up Tuesday. We'll have to wait and see.



Nice series of charts Seawaves. When I look at a ten year chart of the $SPX, I see a trading range, and we're closer to the top than we are from the bottom. This chart is also a trading range, we're closer to resistance than support here. Notice the hourly $SPX dropped below the 20 EMA on the hourly here:
Last edited by waverider on Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Seawaves » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:43 pm

waverider wrote:
Seawaves wrote:Is the euro debt crisis unsolvable? In 1982, we had similar Latin American debt crisis and what happened to the SPX then, seemed not a big deal at all :mrgreen:



Was the market going sideways for a decade in 1982? No, the trend was up. Also, please explain how the Latin American debt crisis was similar to the European crises. ;)

there is a thesis for readers who wonder what's the difference btw now and then. basically, there is nothing new under the sun. the same or semi-same story happened again and again. it's all from the same human nature :)

http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/f ... chheit.pdf
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:48 pm

Here I am with first cup of coffee in 2012, happy new year everyone, CCI (144) look at long term Trend and price level of to be or not to be.......
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spy.JPG
spy.JPG
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:16 pm

TRIN is excellent short term indicator, last Friday TRIN agreed with the bear move, my read short term out look in a day or two is bearish.
spy.JPG
spy2.JPG
these short term internals also agreed bearish view. SELL it is....
spy1.JPG
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby KeiZai » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:46 pm

Agree with you BB52x about the long term, trend is up for now and it can go to around 1315 but carefully this month, if the rumor about that two world's largest financial institutions on the brink of collapse is true we are heading to a huge short opportunity from that level

tonight just chill out with the movie : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jQoScJFNj0
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:16 pm

KeiZai wrote:Agree with you BB52x about the long term, trend is up for now and it can go to around 1315 but carefully this month, if the rumor about that two world's largest financial institutions on the brink of collapse is true we are heading to a huge short opportunity from that level

tonight just chill out with the movie : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jQoScJFNj0

I like your Video, price level not confirmed but if we were to go as high as 1315 I would see it as very bullish.
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