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UNG trades off of the weather which makes using technical analysis frustrating.BullBear52x wrote:Dr. Al RE: UNG I tried every blue bar until last Nov. I called it quit chasing, wait for the true turn counter trend on UNG has not been good, got plenty of time at every bottom to get out safely but too much energy required to trade it. I am waiting for the new set up. not good looking however you put it.
I meant instrument for longterm hold in natgas, didn't mean stockmarket. Sorry for the confusion.Al_Dente wrote:No, sorry. I like to day trade here, for swing trades/intermediate term “instruments”, I watch Cobra’s “Trading Signals” and “Portfolio Update” over on his main subscription page.NDD wrote:Thanks Al Dente
Any suggestion too which instrument one should use if one is aiming to keep a positions in the long term account (5-10 years) and/or reasons to why not start investing asap.
To me, his stats on the first five days in January are compelling reasons to wait five days for a longer term commitment, but that’s just me.
waverider wrote:The action with $DAX up about 3%, /cl up 1.3%, and AUD/JPY ramp, we will more than likely have a green open tomorrow.
NDD, UNG is a natgas etf.
tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011
2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)
3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow
4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)
I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!
Zim-Zeb: I do not know of any book or site that deals specifically with that issue. I do my own work and testing in that direction, with the help of some available “drawing tools”.ZimZeb wrote:cougar (or others): can you point me to somewhere I might learn more about the "harmonic time extensions" methodology you use?
Thx & wishing a prosperous new year to all!
*** Edited. I'm long eur for a short bounce. It's made a partial break of the daily down trend line, but i think we need a decisive break above 1.30 to confirm...IMO. i like the current price action, with caution.tdo722 wrote:tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011
2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)
3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow
4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)
I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!
EUR/USD broke out of the 3 month long down channel as expected.
Note: In the case of the Dow Weekly Chart, published this morning, after many trials, I set the “Time Extended” between 2 inflection points, as the time defining a giant whipsaw.cougar wrote:Zim-Zeb: I do not know of any book or site that deals specifically with that issue. I do my own work and testing in that direction, with the help of some available “drawing tools”.ZimZeb wrote:cougar (or others): can you point me to somewhere I might learn more about the "harmonic time extensions" methodology you use?
Thx & wishing a prosperous new year to all!
Briefly:
* the “time extended” (TE) is the entire time during which a powerful and well-defined impulse happened, either up or down. You chose it according to your own criteria.
* the vertical lines that follow are constructed to become time pivots as fractional multiples of that TE. They can be:
- straight Fibonacci ratios 23.6, 38.2, 61.8...to which you usually add 50, 100, 200...all expressed as percentages. .
- Fibonacci numbers (13, 21, 34, 55...) also + multiples of 50.
- Gann “fatidic numbers”. Gann discovered, via exhaustive back-testing some very significant numbers.
Some of them coincide with Fibonacci numbers (like144, which is also sq. of 12). Others seem to be the products of some hocus-pocus, like 7 and 17 (…many of them are prime numbers).
- “Harmonic numbers”' which are derived via a math artifice, systematically applied to Fibonacci ratios, Fib or Gann numbers, or some horizontal series of 1/n steps. There is no standard procedure but, for example, one can accelerate the time pivots by creating a new, simple and organized progression:
#1: 5x1.3 = 6.5 or ~6
#2: 8x1.3x1.3 =13.52 (~14)
#3 13x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 28.56 (~29)
#4: 21x1.3x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 59.98 (~60)
This is not identical, but similar to procedures used in music and physics…One can go into more complex methods of creating new progressions of pivots…But, as Cobra says, this would require too much typing… Anyway, what is important is to understand that, since stocks, indices and ETF-s of various multiplicities have distinct time-related evolutions, we have to analyze them with different and “specific” tools. Just imagine the catastrophe produced by analyzing 2 stocks like RIMM and INHX with the same time/price scale.
So...how do we figure out which time scale fits to a stock? This can be done “by hand” trying a few recipes for harmonization, which worked previously, in analogous situations…or by a well-instructed BOT who can go through a large number of harmonic variants in a matter of seconds and chose those which best fit to many points of reversal or acceleration spikes. But even then, the human touch is required to determine whether those reversals are significant, in the general picture of the succession of trends. And, after that, we have 2 more steps: back testing for various domains of definition and finally…patiently waiting for the next time pivot to confirm or negate the validity of the scale…
All in all, this is a personal endeavor and not a standard procedure.
Happy New Year and GL with your work!
I totally agree. It's not a decisive breakout yet. Still only at the tip of the iceberg.jarbo456 wrote:*** Edited. I'm long eur for a short bounce. It's made a partial break of the daily down trend line, but i think we need a decisive break above 1.30 to confirm...IMO. i like the current price action, with caution.tdo722 wrote:tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011
2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)
3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow
4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)
I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!
EUR/USD broke out of the 3 month long down channel as expected.