Cobra's Market View

cougar (or others): can you point me to somewhere I might learn more about the "harmonic time extensions" methodology you use?
Thx & wishing a prosperous new year to all!

BullBear52x wrote:Dr. Al RE: UNG I tried every blue bar until last Nov. I called it quit chasing, wait for the true turn counter trend on UNG has not been good, got plenty of time at every bottom to get out safely but too much energy required to trade it. I am waiting for the new set up. not good looking however you put it.

UNG trades off of the weather which makes using technical analysis frustrating.

We fight to pump out natural gas of the ground only to put it back underground for storage.

“Amazon Sells over 4 Million Kindles in December”
http://www.auctionbytes.com/cab/abn/y11/m12/i30/s02

Al_Dente wrote:

NDD wrote:Thanks Al Dente
Any suggestion too which instrument one should use if one is aiming to keep a positions in the long term account (5-10 years) and/or reasons to why not start investing asap.

No, sorry. I like to day trade here, for swing trades/intermediate term “instruments”, I watch Cobra’s “Trading Signals” and “Portfolio Update” over on his main subscription page.
To me, his stats on the first five days in January are compelling reasons to wait five days for a longer term commitment, but that’s just me.

I meant instrument for longterm hold in natgas, didn't mean stockmarket. Sorry for the confusion.

The action with $DAX up about 3%, /cl up 1.3%, and AUD/JPY ramp, we will more than likely have a green open tomorrow.

NDD, UNG is a natgas etf.

waverider wrote:The action with $DAX up about 3%, /cl up 1.3%, and AUD/JPY ramp, we will more than likely have a green open tomorrow.

NDD, UNG is a natgas etf.

Yep I know, but was searching for some alternative since there's alot of losses due to contango over time with ung...unl might be a better choice?

Personally I wouldn't touch either until natgas appears to have found a bottom. What is your reasoning for believing that is has?

I don't know it has but feel pretty confident gas doesn't have much further downside unless they're gonna quit prod totally.
This aint the typical trading style I use.. but for a very longterm account
I see gas going at worst to around 2-2.5 and dont mind a drawdown as i'll only be adding my first 1/3 position here..and how do you get confirmation ever with gas? The movements are erratic and don't think i'lll get confirmation too easy so feel like adding my first pos soon...might wait til we get a low in stockmarket first to see whether it still wants to resume its bear, I'm not too sure it will. This is not for trading like I said but for my longterm account 5-10 years+ ..

We also have a BB crash on monthly and weekly...so if wrong i still prob have the time to get out if there's another selloff

Oh, well in that case, I'd definitely go with UNG, it's not dropping like a rock as UNL is, and appears to have more upside potential based on the range. I hope it's a great long term hold for you.

Thanks for input,

would greatly appreciate other long term holds if you have any suggestions, gold and silver doesn't need to get mentioned
(I think you might be a SMTer, hehe)

tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011

2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)

3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow

4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)

I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!

EUR/USD broke out of the 3 month long down channel as expected.

Nice analysis tdo, I'm trading on the same side based on other indicators and am liking the action.
I'll be bullished biased until my indicators turn neg or we break spx 1140...whichever comes first.

GL

ZimZeb wrote:cougar (or others): can you point me to somewhere I might learn more about the "harmonic time extensions" methodology you use?
Thx & wishing a prosperous new year to all!

Zim-Zeb: I do not know of any book or site that deals specifically with that issue. I do my own work and testing in that direction, with the help of some available “drawing tools”.

Briefly:
* the “time extended” (TE) is the entire time during which a powerful and well-defined impulse happened, either up or down. You chose it according to your own criteria.
* the vertical lines that follow are constructed to become time pivots as fractional multiples of that TE. They can be:
- straight Fibonacci ratios 23.6, 38.2, 61.8...to which you usually add 50, 100, 200...all expressed as percentages. .
- Fibonacci numbers (13, 21, 34, 55...) also + multiples of 50.
- Gann “fatidic numbers”. Gann discovered, via exhaustive back-testing some very significant numbers.
Some of them coincide with Fibonacci numbers (like144, which is also sq. of 12). Others seem to be the products of some hocus-pocus, like 7 and 17 (…many of them are prime numbers).
- “Harmonic numbers”' which are derived via a math artifice, systematically applied to Fibonacci ratios, Fib or Gann numbers, or some horizontal series of 1/n steps. There is no standard procedure but, for example, one can accelerate the time pivots by creating a new, simple and organized progression:
#1: 5x1.3 = 6.5 or ~6
#2: 8x1.3x1.3 =13.52 (~14)
#3 13x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 28.56 (~29)
#4: 21x1.3x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 59.98 (~60)

This is not identical, but similar to procedures used in music and physics…One can go into more complex methods of creating new progressions of pivots…But, as Cobra says, this would require too much typing… Anyway, what is important is to understand that, since stocks, indices and ETF-s of various multiplicities have distinct time-related evolutions, we have to analyze them with different and “specific” tools. Just imagine the catastrophe produced by analyzing 2 stocks like RIMM and INHX with the same time/price scale.

So...how do we figure out which time scale fits to a stock? This can be done “by hand” trying a few recipes for harmonization, which worked previously, in analogous situations…or by a well-instructed BOT who can go through a large number of harmonic variants in a matter of seconds and chose those which best fit to many points of reversal or acceleration spikes. But even then, the human touch is required to determine whether those reversals are significant, in the general picture of the succession of trends. And, after that, we have 2 more steps: back testing for various domains of definition and finally…patiently waiting for the next time pivot to confirm or negate the validity of the scale…
All in all, this is a personal endeavor and not a standard procedure.

Happy New Year and GL with your work!

tdo722 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011

2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)

3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow

4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)

I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!

EUR/USD broke out of the 3 month long down channel as expected.

*** Edited. I'm long eur for a short bounce. It's made a partial break of the daily down trend line, but i think we need a decisive break above 1.30 to confirm...IMO. i like the current price action, with caution.

cougar wrote:

ZimZeb wrote:cougar (or others): can you point me to somewhere I might learn more about the "harmonic time extensions" methodology you use?
Thx & wishing a prosperous new year to all!

Zim-Zeb: I do not know of any book or site that deals specifically with that issue. I do my own work and testing in that direction, with the help of some available “drawing tools”.

Briefly:
* the “time extended” (TE) is the entire time during which a powerful and well-defined impulse happened, either up or down. You chose it according to your own criteria.
* the vertical lines that follow are constructed to become time pivots as fractional multiples of that TE. They can be:
- straight Fibonacci ratios 23.6, 38.2, 61.8...to which you usually add 50, 100, 200...all expressed as percentages. .
- Fibonacci numbers (13, 21, 34, 55...) also + multiples of 50.
- Gann “fatidic numbers”. Gann discovered, via exhaustive back-testing some very significant numbers.
Some of them coincide with Fibonacci numbers (like144, which is also sq. of 12). Others seem to be the products of some hocus-pocus, like 7 and 17 (…many of them are prime numbers).
- “Harmonic numbers”' which are derived via a math artifice, systematically applied to Fibonacci ratios, Fib or Gann numbers, or some horizontal series of 1/n steps. There is no standard procedure but, for example, one can accelerate the time pivots by creating a new, simple and organized progression:
#1: 5x1.3 = 6.5 or ~6
#2: 8x1.3x1.3 =13.52 (~14)
#3 13x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 28.56 (~29)
#4: 21x1.3x1.3x1.3x1.3 = 59.98 (~60)

This is not identical, but similar to procedures used in music and physics…One can go into more complex methods of creating new progressions of pivots…But, as Cobra says, this would require too much typing… Anyway, what is important is to understand that, since stocks, indices and ETF-s of various multiplicities have distinct time-related evolutions, we have to analyze them with different and “specific” tools. Just imagine the catastrophe produced by analyzing 2 stocks like RIMM and INHX with the same time/price scale.

So...how do we figure out which time scale fits to a stock? This can be done “by hand” trying a few recipes for harmonization, which worked previously, in analogous situations…or by a well-instructed BOT who can go through a large number of harmonic variants in a matter of seconds and chose those which best fit to many points of reversal or acceleration spikes. But even then, the human touch is required to determine whether those reversals are significant, in the general picture of the succession of trends. And, after that, we have 2 more steps: back testing for various domains of definition and finally…patiently waiting for the next time pivot to confirm or negate the validity of the scale…
All in all, this is a personal endeavor and not a standard procedure.

Happy New Year and GL with your work!

Note: In the case of the Dow Weekly Chart, published this morning, after many trials, I set the “Time Extended” between 2 inflection points, as the time defining a giant whipsaw.
This is a heretical approach, which happened to work.

Many thanks for the thorough reply!

This is a heretical approach, which happened to work
I'm not sure there was ever a good idea that wasn't considered heresy first...

jarbo456 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011

2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)

3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow

4. Commercial traders are heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)

I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!

EUR/USD broke out of the 3 month long down channel as expected.

*** Edited. I'm long eur for a short bounce. It's made a partial break of the daily down trend line, but i think we need a decisive break above 1.30 to confirm...IMO. i like the current price action, with caution.

I totally agree. It's not a decisive breakout yet. Still only at the tip of the iceberg.

test

Of course I have a gold and silver chart but mostly I want to tell you Cobra, Al De the spaghetti, Cougar, Uempel, Richarab, 99er, squirrel nuts, and all you awesome chartists, and many others all who have helped brighten my days, challenged my learning curve, a lot, '11. Shine ON!
Cougar, a chart you did in the last week or so that had Fibo lines going back to a previous low, got me to thinking that If one were to fib fan from something previous other than the last high in this gold/silver correction then what might be the next earlier point. So I decided on combinations of beginning of this precious metal bull and then did Fibfan from last +- 30% larger correction in which both gold and silver hit lows and resumed bull October 24, 2008. Presently both are showing strong momentum. Yet I sense hesitancy... Thicker brown Fib Fan Line on /SI is from +- BEGINNING of Precious Metals Bull market Oct '03.
Gold BullTidbit: One gold future contract margin = $11,000. When they do finally turn back to bull mode there should be two 13% corrections on the way to $4,000+.
A song for remembrance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt-9Zt-XzhY
And A Mouse in the Cupboard to start the New Year : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exYczReyXgM
Anyone left to read this? .. .. .. ..