01/05/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by **Cobra** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:02 am

Small gap down within yesterday's range, so chances are the gap will be filled.

The Global ES tested the previous low overnight and rebounded sharply. Since this was the 2nd test, so if it can manage to rebound higher then chances are the low was in. Let's see.

Euro is testing the previous low now. I don't see it's bottomed yet.

Richarab · Post by **Richarab** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:05 am

Morning Cobra
Hope you are feelin better

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I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.750955,-95.453258

ramram · Post by **ramram** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:05 am

Hi Cobra.

I see a potential reversal today or tomorrow -- end of wave 5 is near.

Petsamo · Post by **Petsamo** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:08 am

Thank goodness I sold my UNG yesterday. I might buy back if it falls below 6.50. It's at a ridiculously low price.

rhapsody1447 · Post by **rhapsody1447** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:10 am

GM Cobra! Hope the holidays and new year were good.

Are you looking at this ascending triangle? Does it have any validity?

gabor · Post by **gabor** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:17 am

I am not sure who was paying attention on ES movements, I noticed something:
At 2:15 pm (GMT+1 or EST+6) there was a huge move up in ES and huge move down at the same time in EURUSD.

Could this be an open or close of a large hedge position?

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:17 am

GM, Nice bounce from Mid BB overnight on /ES, I think there will be second test to this area (the overnight low) from there it will be clearer if up trend is sustained or not.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:18 am

Good Morning All

Here are the internals on a DAILY chart
It looks to me like SPY has formed an ascending triangle pattern.
Also, to conserve real estate I put DBV (gold area) behind the cumulative $NYAD, and mmmmm…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =252059429

[edit: I just saw rhapsody1447 ascending triangle too.....looks valid to me]

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:19 am

Good morning Cobra!
It is nice to get all those Emails from you! Thank you for your inspired hard work!

1). $DXY had a first daily red bar, on the "%R-System" and showed a beginning of Stochastic Convergence.
However, it was firmly stopped at the Blue Support and the Stochastic Convergence reversed!
Now it is at a BREAKOUT level, above the midline of the +/-1SD Regression Channel and above the ellipse!

2). SPY on fast RENKO, where the levels of support are given by coincidences of Murrey Math and Fibonacci extension ratios. They are marked as narrow rectangles.

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:19 am

gabor wrote:I am not sure who was paying attention on ES movements, I noticed something:
At 2:15 pm (GMT+1 or EST+6) there was a huge move up in ES and huge move down at the same time in EURUSD.

Could this be an open or close of a large hedge position?

ADP in the USA came in hot with a number that was 8 standard deviations above consensus.......

Gotta love government math!

Post by **Cobra** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:19 am

Richarab wrote:Morning Cobra
Hope you are feelin better

---
I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.750955,-95.453258

Thanks. I think I'm fully recovered. Could you login with your iPhone now? I wonder what happened?

mac769 · Post by **mac769** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:20 am

I just wonder how long the European Banking System can be held above water.

Unicredit now below the Lehman LOW.

This looks extremely ugly and when you see the Euro in freefall, I wonder how long the US can "decouple" from this.

IMHO, if 1260 on the SPX fails, then there is a looong way to go down...

waverider · Post by **waverider** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:21 am

Good morning all, lol @ bullish sentiment?

Post by **Cobra** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:21 am

rhapsody1447 wrote:GM Cobra! Hope the holidays and new year were good.

Are you looking at this ascending triangle? Does it have any validity?

2 points touch on the high doesn't make an valid Ascending Triangle yet, so we can only see there're some chances but not yet.

rhapsody1447 · Post by **rhapsody1447** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:22 am

Al_Dente wrote:Good Morning All

Here are the internals on a DAILY chart
It looks to me like SPY has formed an ascending triangle pattern.
Also, to conserve real estate I put DBV (gold area) behind the cumulative $NYAD, and mmmmm…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =252059429

Good morning Al,

I was looking at the ascending triangle on the daily as well. What would be the move to watch, a break above the resistance line? If so, what would the target be? It seems a target price the height of the triangle would be a dramatic move.

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:22 am

bull flag? i think i heard it mentioned yesterday on the board.

seems like most options point up from here --- i just wish we could close the gap first.....and the one down at 1160

rhapsody1447 · Post by **rhapsody1447** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:23 am

Cobra wrote:
rhapsody1447 wrote:GM Cobra! Hope the holidays and new year were good.

Are you looking at this ascending triangle? Does it have any validity?
2 points touch on the high doesn't make an valid Ascending Triangle yet, so we can only see there're some chances but not yet.

Thanks Cobra, it seems if we 3 push-up like you mentioned in your report than it would break the pattern? I'm just curious to see if that support will act as resistance once it's broken or if the pattern should be ignored altogether.

Buckethead · Post by **Buckethead** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:27 am

I will continue looking for long side daytrades today on dips ahead of payrolls.
Tomorrow, I will fade the strong payroll # short for my first short of the year.
Trade carefully.

waverider · Post by **waverider** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:28 am

BB, did you check your renko or what? lol.

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:30 am

mac769 wrote:I just wonder how long the European Banking System can be held above water.

Unicredit now below the Lehman LOW.

This looks extremely ugly and when you see the Euro in freefall, I wonder how long the US can "decouple" from this.

IMHO, if 1260 on the SPX fails, then there is a looong way to go down...

Equity stays stupid way too long. DX closed the gap, why shouldn't the ES? Generally it seems the play is to assume that currency/bonds will hold support/resistance. And thus, equity tries to front run the swing trade and more often than not gets caught holding the bag and its SELL SELL SELL.

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