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Weekend Watering

Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:05 pm

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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby trendfollower » Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:06 pm

The levels to consider watching seem to be still valid in the following article:

http://goo.gl/nZPuo
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Jan 07, 2012 2:33 pm

Hello chartcaholics, The trend is up with few signs we may get a pull back. I see candles formation here is not all that strong, a risk of running into reversal island is still in the card. I am expecting a retest of 200 ma or a small pull back before a move up higher.
spy.JPG
I was yapping so much about DBV well, here a swing sell-able on it as of Friday.
spy1.JPG
Here is my yellow lines, getting tight nothing bearish, a consolidation on the upper range is bullish, well 80% break out, but looking at MACD ans RSI I see some weakness.
spy1a.JPG
here is the intraday cluster of chart pattern that I will go with in next week.
spy2.JPG
one more another quick look at lines
spy3.JPG
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby ocassional observer » Sat Jan 07, 2012 2:39 pm

the markets are at a critical point as can be seen at a chart of $spxa200R &spxa50R:
spxa200r to spx50r.jpg

the 200w sma was the dividing line between long lasting rallies and declines since the march bottom. a breakout will also require a sustainable breakout above the october top. however, there are plenty of divergences (NYMO, SPXA50R, BPSPX, etc.) now compared to the october top so the very first attempt should fail. we'll need to see how the decline and the following rally evolve to assess market strength. $vix weekly (cobra's chart) seems like a double bottom with positive divergence so i expect some rebound sometime next week.
fundamentally europe's recession is continuing , china's real estate slump is starting and growth in the us is weak. profit margins have peaked and profits will peak yoy sometime during the year. gs has year end target of 1250 based on flat earnings and some multiple compression. morgan stanley calls for 1167. i guess my view is in between those, with downside risks from financial turmoil in europe and Iran's situation. all in all i think we're much closer to the top in 2012 than the bottom, all imho.

p.s.
the 5 first trading days indicator is much weaker if the gain was less than 1.5%, including some respectable slumps,so monday is important:
http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/24174
my guess is that the big guys will want it to be positive to lure the crowds to the slaughter house, as evident by the recent highs of the oex p/c ratio.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:12 pm

ocassional observer wrote:the markets are at a critical point as can be seen at a chart of $spxa200R &spxa50R:
spxa200r to spx50r.jpg

the 200w sma was the dividing line between long lasting rallies and declines since the march bottom. a breakout will also require a sustainable breakout above the october top. however, there are plenty of divergences (NYMO, SPXA50R, BPSPX, etc.) now compared to the october top so the very first attempt should fail. we'll need to see how the decline and the following rally evolve to assess market strength. $vix weekly (cobra's chart) seems like a double bottom with positive divergence so i expect some rebound sometime next week.
fundamentally europe's recession is continuing , china's real estate slump is starting and growth in the us is weak. profit margins have peaked and profits will peak yoy sometime during the year. gs has year end target of 1250 based on flat earnings and some multiple compression. morgan stanley calls for 1167. i guess my view is in between those, with downside risks from financial turmoil in europe and Iran's situation. all in all i think we're much closer to the top in 2012 than the bottom, all imho.

p.s.
the 5 first trading days indicator is much weaker if the gain was less than 1.5%, including some respectable slumps,so monday is important:
http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/24174
my guess is that the big guys will want it to be positive to lure the crowds to the slaughter house, as evident by the recent highs of the oex p/c ratio.

Thanks Ocasionnal Observer, I look at SPXA50 daily also, well, turning down on Friday and a top slope is getting lower low clearly.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:13 pm


You too 99er have a good weekend, just so you know, I never skip to look at your charts. :D
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby ocassional observer » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:32 pm

i forgot to mention: possible IH&S on GLD, SLV and PPLT although GLD still has some downside to complete the move. the internals support the formation imho.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:35 pm

Someone asking me what is my take if you were to short FAS since Friday 12/30, well, first you are counter trend, some times the early bird got the worm or the you could turn out to be the early worm who got eaten. anyways, either it's an exhaustion gap or short squeeze ( I think it's short squeeze, if so it should trade back to the previous level the short squeeze started ) but here is the up date on FAS with double top.
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spy.JPG
spy1.JPG
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Mr. BachNut » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:49 pm

Rather than the usual stuff, here are some different but contrarian indicators supporting the notion that a top is in or near (perhaps a last squeeze before the turn).
Ignore the MACD. That is just to remind me that I am positioned counter trend (gulp) and probably doomed...
The Time Volume Accumulation is downtrending, divergent with price and just crossed below moving average. See red circle.
The Money Flow Index is in topping territory and turned down Friday. I have put vertical bars at prior peaks (All were near price tops except December). See red circle. This indicator was useless during QE but has had some value since that ended. When TVA and MFI are trending in the same direction, price usually synchs up.
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SPY Time Volume and Money Flow.jpg
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:49 pm

Nice charts, 99er and Bull Bear!
I agree: “…next week should prove to be a pivotal one”.
Probably, it won’t be easy to “position yourself well”. I would not trade equivocal setups. As an old friend of mine (a WS trader) used to say: “…until you get it right, stay hedged…and if you don’t know how to hedge, stay in cash…”
This time I will show only a few charts which reflect an easily detectable personal view of what might happen. Obviously, they do not represent a trading advise but they could be entertaining and some people might see them as contrarian.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:54 pm

First, to the 99-er’s and Occasional Observer’s metals charts, I would add an update on palladium. This is a “fancy metal” both high-tech industrial and used for “exclusive” modern jewelry. That means that now “exclusive, connoisseur gold-diggers“ actually wear palladium…LOL! On top of that, palladium is scarcely represented in the Earth crust…
Only very few people trade it and those guys are savvy. Palladium speculation is not the trade of every semiliterate bankster…Therefore, it frequently moves ahead of other metals and even ahead ofthe general market. Look what it’s doing on a 130 min chart and on the daily “%R/Stochastic Strategy”:
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PALL130.GIF
PALLd.GIF
Last edited by cougar on Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:57 pm

This SPX 60 min “%R System” chart. Suggests that we might be building an intermediary rounded top, as we did in the fall of 2011.. . But BEWARE of possible “Pinocchio waves” which might act as dangerous bull traps.
For super-nimble folks they might be a good play since Da Boyz will probably take a bite above 1293 during a “suckers’ rally”.
I would trade them according to signals synergizing on UPRO and FAS intraday charts.

===========

[I showed my UPRO chart on FRIDY, before I left the zoo…]
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SPX60.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:01 pm

The surprising FAS chart deeply influenced the SPY moves and at a great extent, was supported by fabricated “news” on Thursday and by lots of “good-will-cash” on Friday.

In spite of that, this chart looks surprisingly “technical” with a Gann Fan, supplemented by Fibonacci Harmonic Fan lines (H21, H34 & H55). The same observation could be made on the excellent FAS charts of BullBear. Who says that Da Boyz don’t do TA?! LOL!

I am assuming that FAS will continue to provide trade-able signals during the next “pivotal week”. They can corroborate those provided by SPY or UPRO…
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FAS.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby waverider » Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:07 pm

Excellent charts guys! Some observations here, somehow the U.S. markets think they can disconnect from the rest of the world...

The S&P ended the week virtually flat, while China has been flat for the past 20 days. Japan ended the week negative and has been in a downtrend from an October 28th high. Germany, and many other developed nations were in a downtrend for the week.

Here's a chart for the Occasional Observer.

nya50r.png
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:08 pm

Since Market tops tend to be “rounded”, I like to look for reciprocal rounded bottoms in ultra short ETFs.
Among those, QID is a well-established one, created to lose value and offers a too good to ignore opportunity…Here is the completed geometrical chart of the one I sketched Friday afternoon.
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QID2.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:12 pm

However, a friend of mine, who calls himself an “educated anti-contrarian” called me:

”… Well, there might be a small bull trap, but it’ll be included in a huge bear trap…Can you trade them both and stay above the water? Little contrarian bears listen to the talking heads discussing whether QE3 is coming or not…but QE3 IS ALREADY HERE and this is the secret of Punchinello ! Watch what will happen at the end of next week, while Tim will be in China, right before the weekly OpEx…I wish you good luck!”

=========================
I think that my friend is too well educated and that’s his problem!
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:25 pm

Wow, folks. Great charts here this weekend; thanks for sharing!

Update

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/eurusd_07.html

OMG.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby KENA » Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:54 pm

Thanks everyone for the info and charts..Lots of good stuff today..Some day I may learn how to transfer some info to the site.Tried a couple of times but it did not work. have a good weekend and GT next week.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Travelfrog » Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:12 am

I have some Elliot Wave software that I use occasionally to find swing points. The hit rate isn't that accurate, but quite often it can help support swing points found or expected using other indicators or charting setups.

The SPX Daily has had one TS4 swing point which failed and has now signalled another TS4 swing point. There is a possibility that this could also fail as we are in the minimum zone and could still travel higher into the expected zone at 1315.

The target area if the signal is correct is 1120 - 1140.

The same software has also signalled a TS4 this week on the FTSE100.

SPX-08-01-12.png
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