Weekend Watering

[Al_Dente]

Great charts and commentary, as usual, from the weekend shift, thank you all.
I don’t know if the top is in or not, but I do know that the market loves a good surprise, so here’s a bull-continuation point of view:
Some indicators are saying that there could be more room at the top.
$NYMO and $NAMO are not extremely overbought yet ($NYMO has signaled tops at 80 over the past few years; it is conceivable that it could go there again), and bullish percent $BPSPX at 68 has room to grow (although $INDU and $TRAN bullish percents are overbought >80s).
Note pink circles:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX ... listNum=15

Percent of stocks above 50ma could still go higher if it wants to, and, when compared to previous highs, there could be more 52 week highs ahead before the turn.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA5 ... =252993090

But breadth and net volume ($NYUD) have plateaued and weakened in the last three trading sessions (especially $NAAD, which we all know has serious long term issues), as attempts to conquer the highs have failed…so far.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =252989379

I believe a top is near, and as soon as my volatility charts quit making lower lows, I will get very bearish indeed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =252313790

I do see the negative divergences in these indicators, but I hesitate to weigh them fully while SPY is still trying, as of Friday, to breakthrough the 10/27 high, and $VIX is helping it along……so I will wait… and I’ll be tardy to the party…. which is the lot of the Trend Follower.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING WAVERIDER:
I’m watching your BP renko on gold miners. What do you think of it?
How long have you been studying it on other “underlyings”?
I noticed you said last week that one more brick (meaning two bricks total) was enough to commit to a turn? Is that your signal, two bricks?
I love that thing, and am still “eyeball testing” it. Thanks very much for sharing it.

[Al_Dente]

RE: CANARIES and DIVERGENCES
As we watch TNX, DBV, UDN and $VIX etc intraday, here’s a look at their “signals” in action over the longer term, via a weekly chart going back to the 2009 bottom, looking especially at how long it takes for neg/pos divergences to kick in:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248618588

I am only suggesting this: it is challenging at best to watch these canaries on a one-minute intraday time frame, when charts show that they can sometimes diverge for days/weeks before SPY price reacts and adjusts. I see them as just a guide to confirm/deny intraday SPY price action, but price rules.

[trendfollower]

Video on SP 500, oil, gold, silver, and dollar still seems relevant going into new week.

http://goo.gl/eaNQu

[99er]

Two Canaries

AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/audjpy_08.html
Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/copper_08.html

Or, better yet, two Butterflies.

Check back tonight for follow-up charts as they currently suggest gap down opens in cash equities.


Edits:

AUDJPY: Check. http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/audjpy_7607.html
Copper:
ES: MACD cross. http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es_08.html

[cougar]

Waiting for VIX to talk to us.
On the 130 min chart: notice the extreme narrowing of the “decomposition envelope” of the Empirical Mode…As a reference, check out the 3 successive signals that appeared after 07/22/2011, when VIX was still under 18.

[mozart]

Silver, not much change:

[BullBear52x]

Waiting for VIX to talk to us.
On the 130 min chart: notice the extreme narrowing of the “decomposition envelope” of the Empirical Mode…As a reference, check out the 3 successive signals that appeared after 07/22/2011, when VIX was still under 18.

Cougar, here is what I got on VIX, looking back on 2002 is where we are now, very simple view to settle bulls or bears out look. so far bear on until it breaks out, me thinks. got to run thank you all for the goodies this weekend.

[rhight]

Thanks for the charts everyone. I'm going to present a few views, but no predictions. It seems the best laid plans are often foiled. The first chart is a 5 min view, one I keep but don't often use. What is interesting about this is the entire gain for the week appears to have happened in the first 5 minutes! After that we see ramp like gains, followed by steep high volume sell-offs concentrated around the beginning and end of each day, still, gaining 1.6% for the week.

Next, in looking at volume you see that after the holiday lull, volume is simply in line with December's. No notable increase for the first week. Something to notice is that, although UPV is greater than DNV, there has been an overall down trend in volume since October. Also notice the negative divergence in NYUPV over the past 3 weeks. This pattern often precedes a minor or intermediate trend change. That said, if this week's price action is a topping pattern, it only spans 20 points and that may point to a minor trend change, to be followed by another leg up, leading to 5 overlapping waves up from the Nov. low (corrective in nature). Intermediate trend changes often have larger patterns.

This is the data set I put into a SS to get a time and price projection. Since choosing which pivots to enter is the greatest challenge, and in attempting to be as objective as possible, a Detrended Price Oscillator with thresholds is used. The thresholds were eyeballed, not mathmatically derived.

This is how the statistical time and price windows work out. They require some interpretation, similar to any system, bands for instance. Each box represents the Average +/- 1 Standard Deviation in both the time and price dimension. The first red box applied to the 10/27 high, the first blue box - the 11/24 low, the second red box is currently in play, and the second blue box is a projection based on the premise that the 1/3/12 high is it for this Daily cycle. Anyways, we have entered a time and price window for a reversal, but you can see that relative to price action over the preceding year or so there is room for more gains before a reversal. That said, the data set still includes the two large bull runs from 2010 into 2011 that will skew the results to the high side. This is not really actionable intelligence, but it helps to put a perspective on the price action, and is most useful when combined with time and price projections using 60 min. data.

[waverider]

Again, excellent charts and contributions guys. Al, two bricks on the renko sounds reasonable, we got a one blip risk off signal on bpspx recently. I've got a VIX chart which suggests a move that I'll put up tomorrow.

Nice AUD/JPY 99!

[jarbo456]

AUD/JPY decisively breaks 78.17...could be a bad (good for bears) open...already it's probing for S2 at 78.19...

closed my longs on Friday...opened a small 20 contracts of Feb 127 Puts. let's look for this turn sometime this week, will build short position as the trend change is confirmed.

[Auole]

An Uempel/Cougar cross breed. Testing gold-silver '08 correction with major indexes & $US. Observations:
GOLD: BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 3/18/08**
SILVER: BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 3/13/08**
DJI: BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 12/25/07,3/3/08 –A midway Low
SPX: BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 10/5/07, 5/15/08
RUT: BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 12/20/07, 9/23/08
/DX: ThinkUpsideDown BEGAN DOWN HILL CORRECTION 3/13/08**

GOLD: BOTTOM: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thunk! 11/12/08
SILVER: BOTTOM: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thunk! 11/20/08
DJI: Low Before Bottm 11/20/08 BOTTOM-3/5/09
SPX: Low Before Bottm 11/20/08 BOTTOM-3/5/09
RUT: BOTTOM: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3/5/09
/DX: Upside Down (TOP) 3/5/09 ($.90)

GOLD: Hit High Resistence: 3X: 7/17/08, 2/20/09, 6/2/09
SILVER: Hit High Resistence: 3X: 7/14/08, 12/02/09, 5/12/10

GOLD: BEGAN NEW BULL: 9/07/09
SILVER: BEGAN NEW BULL: 9/02/10 very lazy 9/02/10 very lazy
DJI: BEGAN NEW BULL: (7/17/09) 11/30/10
SPX: BEGAN NEW BULL: 11/30/10
RUT: BEGAN NEW BULL: 11/30/10
/DX: BEGAN NEW BEAR ROLL DOWN: 6/07/10 Dollar had a LOW on 4/26/10 of $.735


What’s interesting about the 4/26/10 is that is when the $US hit a LOW AND DJI, SPX, RUT just kept going up then along with the Dollar while Dollar hit a new High on 6/07/10. During this time Indexes had 2 humps and ended up a bit down by 6/07/10. Then $US went down and big Indexes struggled on to their 2011 highs.
So there we have the Past – equities, $US & Precious Metals, not exactly always cosympathetic and correlatable.
Maybe crazy but was fun – spiraling into the future…charts below these.

[Auole]

THE FUTURE.
Light green ovals are where trends follow the Fib Spirals. 5 March was chosen as next bearish Low just because and the spirals fit a few trends.