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09/12/2020 Weekend Update

09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:23 pm

Down 2 weeks, the next week has 64% chances to close up

2.png

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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:42 pm

UPDATED AS OF FRIDAY'S CLOSE: Traders have been shorting the fangs since 9/3
but they needed a fresh high on FNGD and they didn't get it.
DIVERGENCE:
Middle Panel: QQQ is also down (dashed gray behind FNGU price),
but Bottom Panel: The 1/VXN options traders believe that a QQQ bounce is coming.
60min
911qqq.png.jpg
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:04 pm

9/11  JPM analyst (who is overweight on AAPL with a $150 price target) published a note warning that based on recent surveys from Wave7 Research into sales trends across carriers, iPhone sales are "moderating substantially" ahead of the iPhone 12 launch, partly driven by moderation in iPhone 11 series, as consumers are increasingly looking to wait for the fall launch.

Chart not posted: looks like AAPL tried to double bottom today but it printed a barely lower low then a weak bounce into the close.
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:03 pm

Al_Dente wrote:UPDATED AS OF FRIDAY'S CLOSE: Traders have been shorting the fangs since 9/3
but they needed a fresh high on FNGD and they didn't get it.
DIVERGENCE:
Middle Panel: QQQ is also down (dashed gray behind FNGU price),
but Bottom Panel: The 1/VXN options traders believe that a QQQ bounce is coming.
60min
911qqq.png.jpg


Maybe you know the decay problem is purely a math and you didn't mean the lower high as bears are weak. I just wanted to clarify this in case others don't know. So forgive me if you're offended.

No higher high of FNGD is simply because of leveraged fund decay, not a sign of weak bear. It's just a math.

Let's say, Fund A now worth $100, Fund A3X also at $100.

Now say A increase 10% to $110, Fund A3X should increase 30% therefore to $130.

Now say A down 10% which is 110 * 0.9 = 99, A3X should down 30% accordingly, so 130 * 0.7 = 91.

Now say A up 12% which is 99 * 1.12 = 110.88 which back to the previous high. The A3X in theory should be back to $130 right? Let's see: A up 12% so A3X should be up 36% right? So 91 * 1.36 = 123.76 while the A3X previous high was 130, 123.76 is far lower than 130, roughly $7 decay. So again it's a math, you cannot use the lower high to argue that bears are weak. In short, you cannot use leveraged fund to judge the trend.

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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:53 pm

Cobra wrote:Maybe you know the decay problem is purely a math and you didn't mean the lower high as bears are weak. I just wanted to clarify this in case others don't know. So forgive me if you're offended....

Thanks Boss. No problem. :D
I'm also using $NYFANG and $ONE:$NYFANG which is the Index and the inverted Index.
No decay there.
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:26 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
Cobra wrote:Maybe you know the decay problem is purely a math and you didn't mean the lower high as bears are weak. I just wanted to clarify this in case others don't know. So forgive me if you're offended....

Thanks Boss. No problem. :D
I'm also using $NYFANG and $ONE:$NYFANG which is the Index and the inverted Index.
No decay there.


I didn't know FNGU and FNGD before so thank you.

However, FNGU and FNGD are ETN so they're not as safe as ETF. That's too bad.

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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:15 pm

Cobra wrote:..... However, FNGU and FNGD are ETN so they're not as safe as ETF. That's too bad.

Yes.
Thanks again boss :D

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby merryme » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:18 pm

Thank you for explaining the decay on the leveraged ETFs. Always learning something new on this blog.
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:08 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
Cobra wrote:..... However, FNGU and FNGD are ETN so they're not as safe as ETF. That's too bad.

Yes.
Thanks again boss :D

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859


Maybe they're good for short term play, say, if they go extreme again like Sep 2, then a short would be very attractive. :mrgreen:

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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby te_fern » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:01 pm

This is a blog I can read each week and understand. Very straight forward.

https://headlinecharts.blogspot.com/?view=classic
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:37 pm

From "It is what it is department": A correction stage is active. key focus is Price action, lets see what the Fib measurement is telling us, the correction phase is on going and to guess bottom is dangerous mind game. support and resistance are meant to be broken so are the overbought and oversold can stay embedded longer than ones can stay sober.
1.PNG
short term momentum is still pointing down.
2.PNG
Short term trend is changing from up to down, bulls are in defensive mode now. to overcome this, bulls need to regain price above 5 DMA as soon as possible. I will continue sell the rip as long as we trade under 5 DMA.
3.PNG
Total put/Call $CPC suggests the fund managers are starting to hedge, things can get ugly or not, the caution sign is up. deep buyers is good at the panic level (1.2) not at this level. stay safe and enjoy NFL this weekend. Peace!
4.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:15 pm

MARK HULBERT (the Sentiment Guru)
SENTIMENT is bearish which is contrarian bullish
“higher stock prices are likely over the next few weeks”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2020-09-11


FWIW: Google trends: The Google search for “stock market crash” peaked on 9/3.
Coincidently the last SPY high was 9/2.
913google.png.jpg
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby te_fern » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:30 pm

Out of the gate futures didn't sell off today. Hard to use to predict tomorrow mornings open though.....
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby JFR » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:24 am

ES daily. In a base. Beneath the EMA 20. Above some support levels.


2020-09-13_21-21-09.png
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Re: 09/12/2020 Weekend Update

Postby JFR » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:28 am

ES five minutes. Up on Sunday from the close on Friday, above Pivot R1. The bulls do not give up easily.


2020-09-13_21-26-22.png
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