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01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:42 pm

volume surge, several Doji, let's see any pullback here. Don't forget, the market closed on Monday.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:43 pm

noob wrote:Cobra, are you talking about the market? Thanks


No. It's YGE.

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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SB73 » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:44 pm

on the bright side for bears they don't have to worry about the 6 straight hourly red bars rule. Seasonality says next week should be bearish. Perhaps TWT has it right and we slow grind down from here. I would like to see a test of 1240, but that seems like light years away. Maybe today we are setting up an ascending triangle. I don't know if we have seen that pattern latelty :lol:
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:44 pm

SWalsh wrote:First post here, but I've been reading Cobra for 2+ years.

I have been running a program called HFTAlert that shows HFT and Algo participation. Having done quite well for many years using Elliott Wave with just RSI and MACD as a divergence tool, short-term EW is utterly broken. You can see it when the mkt is, as a pretty hard rule, ready to plunge in a continuation pattern and 10%+ of US stocks get hit with quote stuffing in one second. There was a day in early December where the Dow trade up 70 points and back down in one second. Most thought it was a bad print. When you see 5 cent ranges in SPY and suddenly a 25-50 point move happens, virtually 100% of the time computers hit it. Whose fingers are on the buttons at key points is something I will let others decide for themselves. I already have strong feelings given that into some declines there is one, just one, massive hit that stops the decline. One trader who uses DeMark setups, which he says many trading firms and mutual funds use, have gotten signals and moments later the mkt is violently moved in the opposite direction. Deeper pockets seem to always win. The largest ping of the day was at 10:58 that took it through the 9:41 low. I'm just beginning to put things together with the liklihood of when they will act, but I doubt I will trade trying to guess what someone else will do. Had that attracted selling they would have jumped in front of the selling and instantly hit it down. And they can trade in literally an instant.

EW-wise, I would argue that it is quite possible that we just put a solid top (ending diagonal) in that speaks of breaking the August lows. Will it happen? After 3 months of watching 1 minute bars and how the "pings" are often in the last 5 seconds of a bar to get its close higher, it is man against machines with unlimited money. The fear and greed needed for EW to work if often absent and surely has greatly declined. The mkt is nothing like it was up until 2008 since WW II. IMO, it is a completely new game we play, and God forbid you don't at least have orders loaded to click-to-enter, for 15-20 seconds when you decide to act might get you to trade into a spike that will just as quickly turn the other way. The parasites act on the orders that lay on the books as well as ones that enter and they will add a latency to the system through quote stuffing to trade ahead. When it's slow, the faster HFTs try to trick the algos into trading. Even Grasso, who let this in, is saying the machines need to be ripped out. They have decimated public participation.

I'm glad to be here AND for just $10. There's a nice group of people throwing out ideas. And thanks to 99er and his semi-Gartley pattern. 128 puts bought at 5 were sold at 35 this morning when I saw him write two words, which I think were, "That's It".


completely agree with almost everything you're saying here.

i worked for a fund, discretionary fund - but had several acquaintances at HFT funds. i would say that it was definitely in 2007-2008 that they became explosively more popular/well known? hard to say what the difference is. what was apparent though, at the time i didn't know it, was that it was becoming more and more difficult to create discretionary trade ideas - it felt as if we were trading against a huge trading partner we didn't know who (certainly knew it wasn't our PB's taking risk against us). as a result, our fund founder explored bringing on a team of HF traders to explore algo trading currency/commodities. these guys were all PhD level programers/engineers. what i didn't get until recently was "how" they created these HF trades. what i now know is, as you wrote, "stuffing" quotes to create latency so that they could front run and or overrun existing trades at millisecond speeds is the common "game". they've gone far and above that, but the basic strategy is the same..."layering" of quotes to create confusion for large fund traders, and to create latency for their HFT algos to trade ahead of or over.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:45 pm

SWalsh wrote:First post here, but I've been reading Cobra for 2+ years.

I have been running a program called HFTAlert that shows HFT and Algo participation. Having done quite well for many years using Elliott Wave with just RSI and MACD as a divergence tool, short-term EW is utterly broken. You can see it when the mkt is, as a pretty hard rule, ready to plunge in a continuation pattern and 10%+ of US stocks get hit with quote stuffing in one second. There was a day in early December where the Dow trade up 70 points and back down in one second. Most thought it was a bad print. When you see 5 cent ranges in SPY and suddenly a 25-50 point move happens, virtually 100% of the time computers hit it. Whose fingers are on the buttons at key points is something I will let others decide for themselves. I already have strong feelings given that into some declines there is one, just one, massive hit that stops the decline. One trader who uses DeMark setups, which he says many trading firms and mutual funds use, have gotten signals and moments later the mkt is violently moved in the opposite direction. Deeper pockets seem to always win. The largest ping of the day was at 10:58 that took it through the 9:41 low. I'm just beginning to put things together with the liklihood of when they will act, but I doubt I will trade trying to guess what someone else will do. Had that attracted selling they would have jumped in front of the selling and instantly hit it down. And they can trade in literally an instant.

EW-wise, I would argue that it is quite possible that we just put a solid top (ending diagonal) in that speaks of breaking the August lows. Will it happen? After 3 months of watching 1 minute bars and how the "pings" are often in the last 5 seconds of a bar to get its close higher, it is man against machines with unlimited money. The fear and greed needed for EW to work if often absent and surely has greatly declined. The mkt is nothing like it was up until 2008 since WW II. IMO, it is a completely new game we play, and God forbid you don't at least have orders loaded to click-to-enter, for 15-20 seconds when you decide to act might get you to trade into a spike that will just as quickly turn the other way. The parasites act on the orders that lay on the books as well as ones that enter and they will add a latency to the system through quote stuffing to trade ahead. When it's slow, the faster HFTs try to trick the algos into trading. Even Grasso, who let this in, is saying the machines need to be ripped out. They have decimated public participation.

I'm glad to be here AND for just $10. There's a nice group of people throwing out ideas. And thanks to 99er and his semi-Gartley pattern. 128 puts bought at 5 were sold at 35 this morning when I saw him write two words, which I think were, "That's It".



Thanks and welcome aboard! :lol:

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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby noob » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:48 pm

Cobra wrote:
noob wrote:Cobra, are you talking about the market? Thanks


No. It's YGE.


Thanks. I'm quite lost today. French downgrade was confirmed, yet market is going back up.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby stucap » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:52 pm

i'm taking another crack at shorting this crummy market.......80.50 ES...stop 83 ES.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:53 pm

noob wrote:
Cobra wrote:
noob wrote:Cobra, are you talking about the market? Thanks


No. It's YGE.


Thanks. I'm quite lost today. French downgrade was confirmed, yet market is going back up.


I've learnt long time ago, don't try ever to understand the market's logic. :lol:

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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:53 pm

Al_Dente wrote:PS: I too like Hemingway. Here’s the encouragement/support he got from his mom, oy…


I have never read Hemingway, but I'm working on a noel and have found I should be reading all the great novel writers. So I'm now listening to "A Farewell to Arms" and I need to contact Audible.com to see if there is a different reader I can dwnload. The reader sounds like comedian Steven Wright, which is really making it entertaining, but not in a way to listen to how he is writing! :o
"I told you...................bring me everyone"...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:55 pm

PAGING Baron von Trin
“”””Dr. Al, try to combine those to TRIN as a trend you will understand my thinking….””””

You are The Baron, I kiss your feet (but only rarely).
I’m workin’ on that shite TRIN….
Don’t forget, I am Al, the sheep, sheeple, baaaa baaaa baaa, lemming, also brock bock bock bok bok bk bk bk.
PS: You can look up “trend follower” at investopedia.com if you are not familiar with that concept.

PPS: Speaking of reversals, in retrospect, hindsight only and just for fun: do u have any fresh thoughts on the “signals” your brokerage provided last month when they wouldn’t let u short any more shares of this and that? If I could only REMEMBER all these dang signals…. old geezer = selective memory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJLIiF15 ... ure=relmfu

also 1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby BullTart » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:55 pm

Seasonality with options expiration next week is not looking good for the bulls... Jan opex is not a good time for the bulls..

"The S&P 500 ... closed out option expiration week with a loss on 29 out of 40 occurrences (or almost 75% of the time)"

http://www.safehaven.com/article/23973/ ... efore-opex

Just something to consider statistically.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Me XMan » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:56 pm

Getting close to downgrade announcement 3pm EST.

Greece 1-yr bonds at 400%. Wow!
Looking like a very hard default is coming.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:56 pm

sorry al, can you put up the 5 minute internals again for me? specifically 5 minute dec/adv chart...
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:57 pm

SWalsh: ""That's It".

That's Entertainment!
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:57 pm

no one is mentioning the W bottom that's forming on the 5 minute chart...

is this really going to be an f'n explosion to the upside into the close?
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby waverider » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:58 pm

stucap wrote:i'm taking another crack at shorting this crummy market.......80.50 ES...stop 83 ES.


Wow, that's a lot of risk...
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby stucap » Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:00 pm

jarbo456 wrote:no one is mentioning the W bottom that's forming on the 5 minute chart...

is this really going to be an f'n explosion to the upside into the close?


all we need is a tick at 1283 ES and whooooooooooossshh!! Bear fail.

But, I'm still trying.........to short......probably stupid but, no pain no gain!
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby stucap » Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:00 pm

waverider wrote:
stucap wrote:i'm taking another crack at shorting this crummy market.......80.50 ES...stop 83 ES.


Wow, that's a lot of risk...


2.5 points? are ya serious? banked 6.25 so far today so, playing with house money.
Last edited by stucap on Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:00 pm

I have to admit, despite I really don't want to, this kind of pattern looks like it really wants to explore up! :(
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Re: 01/13/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:02 pm

jarbo456 wrote:
SWalsh wrote:First post here, but I've been reading Cobra for 2+ years.

I have been running a program called HFTAlert that shows HFT and Algo participation. Having done quite well for many years using Elliott Wave with just RSI and MACD as a divergence tool, short-term EW is utterly broken. You can see it when the mkt is, as a pretty hard rule, ready to plunge in a continuation pattern and 10%+ of US stocks get hit with quote stuffing in one second. There was a day in early December where the Dow trade up 70 points and back down in one second. Most thought it was a bad print. When you see 5 cent ranges in SPY and suddenly a 25-50 point move happens, virtually 100% of the time computers hit it. Whose fingers are on the buttons at key points is something I will let others decide for themselves. I already have strong feelings given that into some declines there is one, just one, massive hit that stops the decline. One trader who uses DeMark setups, which he says many trading firms and mutual funds use, have gotten signals and moments later the mkt is violently moved in the opposite direction. Deeper pockets seem to always win. The largest ping of the day was at 10:58 that took it through the 9:41 low. I'm just beginning to put things together with the liklihood of when they will act, but I doubt I will trade trying to guess what someone else will do. Had that attracted selling they would have jumped in front of the selling and instantly hit it down. And they can trade in literally an instant.

EW-wise, I would argue that it is quite possible that we just put a solid top (ending diagonal) in that speaks of breaking the August lows. Will it happen? After 3 months of watching 1 minute bars and how the "pings" are often in the last 5 seconds of a bar to get its close higher, it is man against machines with unlimited money. The fear and greed needed for EW to work if often absent and surely has greatly declined. The mkt is nothing like it was up until 2008 since WW II. IMO, it is a completely new game we play, and God forbid you don't at least have orders loaded to click-to-enter, for 15-20 seconds when you decide to act might get you to trade into a spike that will just as quickly turn the other way. The parasites act on the orders that lay on the books as well as ones that enter and they will add a latency to the system through quote stuffing to trade ahead. When it's slow, the faster HFTs try to trick the algos into trading. Even Grasso, who let this in, is saying the machines need to be ripped out. They have decimated public participation.

I'm glad to be here AND for just $10. There's a nice group of people throwing out ideas. And thanks to 99er and his semi-Gartley pattern. 128 puts bought at 5 were sold at 35 this morning when I saw him write two words, which I think were, "That's It".


completely agree with almost everything you're saying here.

i worked for a fund, discretionary fund - but had several acquaintances at HFT funds. i would say that it was definitely in 2007-2008 that they became explosively more popular/well known? hard to say what the difference is. what was apparent though, at the time i didn't know it, was that it was becoming more and more difficult to create discretionary trade ideas - it felt as if we were trading against a huge trading partner we didn't know who (certainly knew it wasn't our PB's taking risk against us). as a result, our fund founder explored bringing on a team of HF traders to explore algo trading currency/commodities. these guys were all PhD level programers/engineers. what i didn't get until recently was "how" they created these HF trades. what i now know is, as you wrote, "stuffing" quotes to create latency so that they could front run and or overrun existing trades at millisecond speeds is the common "game". they've gone far and above that, but the basic strategy is the same..."layering" of quotes to create confusion for large fund traders, and to create latency for their HFT algos to trade ahead of or over.

This for me is the biggest problem with HFT's. I can live with them and trade around them but quote stuffing creates less transparency in the markets.
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