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I think the latest ECB facility, which i believe was announced mid-December, lasts three years and is loose regarding collateral (downgraded sovereigns should work). This appears to have alleviated some of the funding strain that was pushing certain banks to the brink and escalating the TED spread. I think it remains to be seen whether the TED spread has truly reversed or if this is just a pause. I plan to keep watching. I think the arguement around bank valuations improving is that in 2011 they were priced for a high probability crisis but now the anticipated crisis looks like it may be lower probability and deferred past 2012. I think your chart of EU vs. US banks is brilliant and awesome. The EU banks are still being priced like there is a problem. This spread will close. The U.S. banks are not immune to EU bank problems. Felix Zulauf had some comments to this effect in Barron's this weekend.Al_Dente wrote:PAGING Mr. Bachnut:
Here’s the auto-refreshed page on the EU debt crisis, updated with yesterday’s rating downgrades (note the debt/gdp ratios)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/busi ... &emc=tha25
And here are the all-on-one-page EU yields (also auto-updated)
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/09 ... PORT2.html#
And here’s my question: isn’t all of this “baked into” the $TED spread easing, or at least it should be baked-in by Tuesday, no?
PS: As you know, historically 0.50 is the “all clear” number on TED, we’re not quite there yet….
Finally, glance at the growing divergence between EU banks and US Banks, specifically since 19 Dec, and please tell me why?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p ... =252469497
Enough work for now, it’s Saturday night and I’m going dancing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf55gHK4 ... re=related
Great to hear that, 99er! I am looking forward to seeing your next series of charts!99er wrote:cougar, KeiZai and mozart
Thanks for the encouragement but the reason for moving now from Blogger to WordPress has nothing to do with Cobra's BB or some of the comments directed my way. The problem is with Blogger and spam. I'm hoping WordPress has a better handle on this issue and will be able to accommodate some improvements I hope to make to my site. Stay tuned.
Thanks, again.
seems as though they may have dropped off. his trading blog hasn't been updated in over as month as well.Mr. BachNut wrote:I am glad you will continue posting 99er. I study many of your charts every day.
Cobra is awesome, but the site would be like a cake without icing if his collection of contributors wandered off.
All of you core posters, and you know who you are, really make this thing hum.
On the same topic, has anyone spotted DowTrader in awhile? I think his perspective could be timely at this juncture in the market.
Mr.or Ms. “trend follower”: are you a human being or a BOT set up to pump Chris’s site?
One thing that I ponder with my mechanical model is that the reading is so bullish right now that I am not sure a swift significant correction would flip it from a buy to a sell. So, I have to entertain bullish possibilities such as Ned Davis.Al_Dente wrote:PAGING BULLS
Here’s a portion of the “Ned Davis Research”market outlook from Friday the 13th, split into five screenshots for readability:
http://screencast.com/t/hcbpwFkh3KD
http://screencast.com/t/4goyzcyg
http://screencast.com/t/VUcEILH3
http://screencast.com/t/ohVAsnkwe
http://screencast.com/t/11blgl7cuURw
Mr. Bachnut: note he agrees with your analysis of the EU “worry” (thanks for yours).
PS: Ned is one of the "smart cookies"… and his “analysis” is intermediate term….not short term…. not intraday...
Happy Birthday Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_vcTaDn ... re=related
BachNut: good commentaries!Mr. BachNut wrote:Follow-on thought to prior post. From a chart perspective, if the December low holds in the event of a correction, it would probably draw major buying into the market. Not sure about November low.
No one take the question ha? well, it is a hammer, but all hammer required gap up and close white candle, if confirmed most likely higher trade out look.knock wrote:Is Friday candle a hammer?