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01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

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KENA
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by KENA »

Getting several P bars dn to 129.37. Now lets see if it is for real.
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waverider
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by waverider »

Al_Dente wrote:Top two performers in the dow: JPM, BAC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPn0KFlb ... re=related

[edit: today, intraday]
Yes, while XLF hasn't even broken yesterdays high, hilarious.
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fehro
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by fehro »

tagged.. now do we break up to blue? or reverse down to red..
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Cobra
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

SB73 wrote:
Cobra wrote:breakout but 2 bar reversal, not good, let's see if this bar can follow through the reversal. wait.
Everything but price says it might be for real. I would love ot add to the shorts, but am totally scared shitless.
I gave up guessing a top now. :( :roll: :shock:

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waverider
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by waverider »

FSLR up 7.75%, maybe that has something to do with the hedge fund manager exiting his short position? lol
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

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SB73
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by SB73 »

Cobra wrote:
SB73 wrote:
Cobra wrote:breakout but 2 bar reversal, not good, let's see if this bar can follow through the reversal. wait.
Everything but price says it might be for real. I would love ot add to the shorts, but am totally scared shitless.
I gave up guessing a top now. :( :roll: :shock:
Are you holding long position overnight? We may have another huge gap up tomorrow. I had to hedge short position. We may pop out of the bollingerbands to the upside before a meaningful reversal can begin. Lately, it seems as if we move higher throughout the day we close at the HOD. Although I would hate to see it, we may do the same today.
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SWalsh
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by SWalsh »

taggard wrote: as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids
One had to move 900 miles after graduation when a job fell through or sit at home unemployed. I can't even express the hurt my wife and I feel over that. I hold a particular contempt for both administrations who said their wealthy doners can't take haircuts, so small businesses will. And in "The Quiet Coup", Simon Johnson warned them that they would control the economy if they continued on their path. Now they really are to big to fail. Everyone, for the first time since the WW II years, is waiting for another shoe to drop. I don't think any rationale individual thinks we are going back to the standard of living of 3-4 years ago in our lifetime.

As to your points, all valid. If a Black Swan hits the derivative mkt could close banks down overnight.

Thanks
"I told you...................bring me everyone"...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
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soku
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by soku »

S&P 500 Profit Season Has Worst Start in Years: Chart of the Day

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-1 ... e-day.html
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TraderGirl
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by TraderGirl »

I still believe in reversion to the mean, so for the last year the markets have gone back to touch or go below the 50 day, so since we are not in a raging bull market with substantial growth, I can only think that we are headed back to the 50 day or at least the 20 day before going extremely higher. 50 day currently at 1246 on SPX, and 20 day at 1270ish.

SOXL is 20% above 50 day, last time that happened was Oct 28.

I have noticed that the hype about earnings usually cools off about two weeks after earnings kick off, which I time by Alcoa, which was Jan 7th, so we should be getting there soon. Jan 7th plus two weeks = Jan 23rd, FWIW.
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Petsamo
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Petsamo »

For those who want to go long overnight, the following are underbought:

EWJ (Japan)
EPI (India)
HAO (China small-cap)
ILF (Latin America)
ECH (Chile)
Twitter @jackwag0n
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jarbo456
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by jarbo456 »

so what's the new plan cobra? is this a real breakout?
Denali92
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Denali92 »

Well, the MLK holiday disappointed in terms of producing a turn…. but as I noted (I think…) the turns for MLK when it occurs during opex week are never big and it failed to materialize in 2001 and 2006….

BUT OPEX week is here – I should have saved my opex week rules so I could paste them in here, but I did not…. (one of these days I will smarten up…)

Anyway, the rule of thumb on the short side is when we are HOURLY OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri of opex week, it is a good short and generally indicates we will get a pullback of at least 25 SPX points, if not more…. (though occasionally less), the last opex periods that we got the signal were Oct 2011 (only good for a little, but we were coming out of the Oct low), Sept – took a while, but worked REALLY well, May and April of 2011…. (both worked well….)

As always, it is POST opex where we get the BIG turns a la this past December….

We DO NOT have a signal yet, but are close to one – they do NOT always work right away…. but they do work…..

Will let you know when it shows up (if it shows up…)

-D
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Cobra
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

overshot plus volume surge, so could be a pullback here.
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rhight
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by rhight »

Greetings all,
I just thought I'd log in to present the following factoid, in the case that it has not been discussed. On SPX, we are now at the 78.6% retrace (1307.23) of the decline from the April 2011 high (1370.58) to the October 2011 low (1074.77)
For some, this may have some significance. For others, yadda, yadda, yadda. :)
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS
taggard
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by taggard »

SWalsh wrote:
taggard wrote: as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids
One had to move 900 miles after graduation when a job fell through or sit at home unemployed. I can't even express the hurt my wife and I feel over that. I hold a particular contempt for both administrations who said their wealthy doners can't take haircuts, so small businesses will. And in "The Quiet Coup", Simon Johnson warned them that they would control the economy if they continued on their path. Now they really are to big to fail. Everyone, for the first time since the WW II years, is waiting for another shoe to drop. I don't think any rationale individual thinks we are going back to the standard of living of 3-4 years ago in our lifetime.

As to your points, all valid. If a Black Swan hits the derivative mkt could close banks down overnight.

Thanks
as to black swan--almost has to (in my opinion). due to the uncontrolled irrational growth of this new form of liquidity. what's sort of odd is that this or these black swans maybe only growing pains. and that might increase frequency of event--but decrease time frame of event so if you have a sine wave it gets crushed together until it is almost solid sort of idea.

switching from gold to paper (fiat) currencies scared people but was just as natural as shifting from dried fish to gold. moving past fiat to what can on be described as conceptual liquidity likewise is history happening.

again sorry to hear about your kids. my personal experience talking to people 20-27 maybe up to 30 is that they don't want to take risk. i am 58 and grew up during the 60s/70s and didn't think too much about taking it or not since it seemed like there was enough slack to make up for screw-ups. naturally many of this time frame imploded because of that attitude.

never the less what people 15 to 35 need to think about is what the risk of not taking risk is. as you noted the standard of living or most certainly any sense of fairly easy advancement as was typical from 1900 to 1970-1980s really getting tough after 2000--is gone. so if kids do what everyone else is doing they actually risk more since they become commodities--some how they must be thinking how to be one of a kind or some sort of solution to some problem. A creative approach is an asset because it is so lacking esp in people with any sort of degrees. college is very rough on people's ability to see what is going on.

good luck to your kids
TraderGirl
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by TraderGirl »

SWalsh wrote:
taggard wrote: as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids
One had to move 900 miles after graduation when a job fell through or sit at home unemployed. I can't even express the hurt my wife and I feel over that. I hold a particular contempt for both administrations who said their wealthy doners can't take haircuts, so small businesses will. And in "The Quiet Coup", Simon Johnson warned them that they would control the economy if they continued on their path. Now they really are to big to fail. Everyone, for the first time since the WW II years, is waiting for another shoe to drop. I don't think any rationale individual thinks we are going back to the standard of living of 3-4 years ago in our lifetime.

As to your points, all valid. If a Black Swan hits the derivative mkt could close banks down overnight.

Thanks
SWalsh, I believe in cycles, so if you look at the market, you can see that there is approx 18 year cycles. We are in a waning cycle starting from around 2000, we are consolidating the previous 18 years of growth. The market cannot go up forever, just like a stock, it has to pause and consolidate. There are negative planetary action into 2015, not saying it will happen, but we could get another recession in 2014-2015, and then the markets are most likely off to the races...

We may or may not get another correction that would take the markets down 50% from the highs, but the markets are still going a lot higher into the future....
noob
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by noob »

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....
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Me XMan
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Me XMan »

Hit my stop-loss $130.50 so gonna wait and see tomorrow.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by Al_Dente »

rhight wrote:Greetings all,I just thought I'd log in to present the following factoid, in the case that it has not been discussed. On SPX, we are now at the 78.6% retrace (1307.23) of the decline from the April 2011 high (1370.58) to the October 2011 low (1074.77)
For some, this may have some significance. For others, yadda, yadda, yadda. :)
Rhight do you have any of your KILLER volume charts to post today?
I’m still studying your “risk basket” u posted last week
THANKS
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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SWalsh
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by SWalsh »

Cobra wrote:wedge. this market is unbelievably strong, guessing top is really tough.
Would you consider that it is no longer a market at all, but rather a collective of computers that are now gamed to remove money that is put into it?

At 15:11 we had a big HFT spike....then at 15:16 we had a larger one the other way. That's what I mean by not seeing a use in this program. If you went with the first hit you got whacked. They cleared orders out one way, and then the other way. That's all they do. And to think a Senate committee could understand that they are destroying the bulwark of capital formation in America would be difficult as they make large contributions to all of them.

Another big spike at 15:26 to drive it up...we'll see if they get orders below to go after now.

In Vegas that's called a One-Armed Bandit, for it never loses. Actually, the payout there is probably much, much better than this.

A friend of mine works in a trading firm that had about 75 traders last year. A few of the top people left at the end of the year stating this has become absurd as nothing they used for years works anymore. I used to look at a number of your findings for the last few years but it seems like everything has been fed into their system to be a busted trade. 2000 PhDs on Wall Street are doing something, and I think it's doing everything including ranking the blogs on the Internet to gauge their daily positions via sentiment.

There had been a few periods last year where EW worked great for a few days down to a 1 minute bar; almost as if the machines were turned off. It was a different mkt at those times. For the last 4 months I have not seen a period of anything but confusion in what used to be a viable method once learned and used for a few years.
"I told you...................bring me everyone"...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
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