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01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby taggard » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:51 pm

TraderGal

we are for sure on the same page--but again let me just note one factor. starting in the 90s China India and other places started to kick in. The internet has really helped this and of course it's good really for everyone in the longer term. but prior to say 1750-1800 China was 30% or more of global GDP. naturally the usa was very minor at the start of this period. but then we grew to 30+/- %. the glitch for swaslsh's kids is the reversion to mean. there is no way that if India and China wind up with say 50% of Global GDP that this will not impact the relative share that the USA has.

again everything you say is what i believe but i still think it's going to be grindy for a lot of younger people. hence the idea they "should do something different" and avoid either being or being seen as a commodity because now it's the whole world not just the guy across the street that is an issue. Naturally the kids will have many benefits of this new world too.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby TraderGirl » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:52 pm

Cougar, what do you think about TVIX, could it be forming an inverse head and shoulders? I guess it has to hold here pretty well....
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:53 pm

zipper wrote:
TraderGirl wrote:
zipper wrote:To the bears out there , the Wizard is calling for an afternoon sell off and a big down day tomorrow, With CObras views on reversal pattern showing up and divergences... Bulls might be running on Fumes till 1pm, just a fundemental view
Yes I am short ES 1295


Who is this wizard?



The Wizard is the financial astrologer... His dam good


Either he's off by a day or SKYNET assimilated him too! :o
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:55 pm

SWalsh wrote:
zipper wrote:
TraderGirl wrote:
zipper wrote:To the bears out there , the Wizard is calling for an afternoon sell off and a big down day tomorrow, With CObras views on reversal pattern showing up and divergences... Bulls might be running on Fumes till 1pm, just a fundemental view
Yes I am short ES 1295


Who is this wizard?



The Wizard is the financial astrologer... His dam good


Either he's off by a day or SKYNET assimilated him too! :o


yeah...sounds like he got stopped out today. you said his stop was 1307 right?
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby rhight » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:56 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
rhight wrote:Greetings all,I just thought I'd log in to present the following factoid, in the case that it has not been discussed. On SPX, we are now at the 78.6% retrace (1307.23) of the decline from the April 2011 high (1370.58) to the October 2011 low (1074.77)
For some, this may have some significance. For others, yadda, yadda, yadda. :)

Rhight do you have any of your KILLER volume charts to post today?
I’m still studying your “risk basket” u posted last week
THANKS


Maybe tomorrow. This I can say, even though NYUPV has been trending down the past 6 weeks, NYDNV has stayed low. And so, until the sellers show up, price can apparently float up, and up, and ...
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby taggard » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:57 pm

SWalsh wrote:
taggard wrote:
not trying to be depressing--but it's delicate for younger people getting going here.


Sure is! We know kids with no jobs from good schools and some working part-time in retail.

Alfred Malabre was an editor for the WSJ. In the late 80s he predicted all of this in a book, "Beyond Our Means". He stated that technology would make the world smaller, so to say, and unless your job was in demand you would compete for one at low wages in the coming years. Lester Thurow (MI) wrote the same in "Head-to-Head".

One of my kids graduated from a top 10 Business School in 2009. At the end of 2010 those 400 kids had a 50% unemployment rate where they would have been offered $70-$85K to start in their senior year at a job fair, which was lightly attended by companies. Many good offers were rescinded before graduation. Even kids out of law schools can't find jobs (not that we need more lawyers!)


yeah see that totally--but again is there away around going to work for some corp at 80k? how can they find a way around this meat grinder. also as an example a buddy of mine was trying to hire an office manager and an guy with an ma (decent school) in econ came in--this guy had never really heard of non otc derivatives. also he failed to grasp the cycles. my guy didn't think he would stay so while my guy liked him he passed--which only made life worse for this poor guy. my guy has a 4 year degree and runs a windowcleaning business which does very very well. humble etc--but self contained and going though this period well.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Wed Jan 18, 2012 4:58 pm

well, guess that's it for today. the market is stronger than I thought. I'm now holding both long and short, hopefully the market would tell me the direction in the coming days. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby TraderGirl » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:00 pm

taggard wrote:TraderGal

we are for sure on the same page--but again let me just note one factor. starting in the 90s China India and other places started to kick in. The internet has really helped this and of course it's good really for everyone in the longer term. but prior to say 1750-1800 China was 30% or more of global GDP. naturally the usa was very minor at the start of this period. but then we grew to 30+/- %. the glitch for swaslsh's kids is the reversion to mean. there is no way that if India and China wind up with say 50% of Global GDP that this will not impact the relative share that the USA has.

again everything you say is what i believe but i still think it's going to be grindy for a lot of younger people. hence the idea they "should do something different" and avoid either being or being seen as a commodity because now it's the whole world not just the guy across the street that is an issue. Naturally the kids will have many benefits of this new world too.


They definitely have more possibilities open to them, because they are young, and they have a lot of time to explore their options. And they don't have the heavy responsibilities yet. As far as the economy, it will grow, period, whether China and India take our jobs or not, we will be in a growth state sooner or later, history tells me that. You just want to be positioned well so you can take advantage of it in the best way when it does come...
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Tuna1889 » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:01 pm

For what it is worth, Zero Hedge is making it clear this move is short covering, unless you think homebuilders have finally recovered.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:01 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
PS: SWalsh: As u know, Reinhardrt’s“This Time is Different” has rapidly become THE new cornerstone work on crises throughout history, just reinforcing your pointing it out, but newbies might have a hard time with its “data heavy”.
PPS: I bot that book via King Cobra’s amazon link, hint hint


(Just saw this)

I went quickly through the data and just believed them. I was working on a Masters in economics at one point until I said "this is going to be a waste of my life"....that was a good call on my part...LOL

BTW. I'm pretty sure they are both big-time socialists, and Keynesians, and want QExx until it works, which I found amazing to hear given Hussman's research saying it killed Japan for 25 years now.
Last edited by SWalsh on Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby Petsamo » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:01 pm

Finishing at the highs gives a 60% probability of a gap down. So, I'm hoping it happens.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby soku » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:06 pm

ebay? anyone?
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby janez » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:19 pm

proteus46 wrote:Buying April 2012 Calls on VXX - really tempting right now - just being patient


was thinking of the same. but the premium so very high. I only checked Feb VIX calls.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:33 pm

proteus46 wrote:
Try this link, it's free from CBS.news website, aired last year

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... ontentBody


Everyone should watch that 13 minute interview. But also ask yourself why, when we reach a critical support area, there has often appeared one monstrous PING of stuffed bids that has stopped the market and bought it higher and no one else played? It's as if the system was shutdown, no one was allowed to compete, and a certain entity made sure, using just one second in time, to place that bid and push it up.

If you think that's conspiracy theory thinking, they have every right under the National Security Act to take wide measures to prevent domestic terrorism and that also lends itself into stable markets.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:41 pm

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING SWALSH
Please don’t stray off to another board. Please stay right here and keep on posting.
We have an awful lot of other “smart cookies” right here on board; hopefully you’ve noticed.


I'll stay until I'm thrown out...LOL

As to "smart", it used to matter. But this HFT quote program has opened my eyes to what I consider to be nothing short of constant manipulation. Any EW practitioner knows you can't have a 5-5-5 move. Yet i see them almost weekly. I'm not the only person who has spent years working on systems and odds, as well as on yourself which is the most important, who is screaming WTF quite often as high probability line-ups are obliterated by these machines.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:42 pm

short term I got sell/over bought on SPY still but looking at bigger picture, today candle gave me a second thought 1300 is the Key level for me now. I will start unload my bearish position tomorrow if price continue to trade above 130 or continue selling under 130.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:42 pm

soku wrote:ebay? anyone?


What can you sell a kidney for these days? :o
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:50 pm

Tuna1889 wrote:For what it is worth, Zero Hedge is making it clear this move is short covering, unless you think homebuilders have finally recovered.


A friend of mine lost his high paying job in banking and became a mortgage broker and works his butt off. He made $25,000 last year. Of eleven homes on my block, four have been for sale for over 2 years. 3500-4500 sq ft homes and no one looks.

For those who have read Kafka's "The Trial", that's what this all looks like to me. America "fundamentally changed" alright.

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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:00 pm

TraderGirl wrote:
They definitely have more possibilities open to them, because they are young, and they have a lot of time to explore their options. And they don't have the heavy responsibilities yet. As far as the economy, it will grow, period, whether China and India take our jobs or not, we will be in a growth state sooner or later, history tells me that. You just want to be positioned well so you can take advantage of it in the best way when it does come...


Kondratiev got a bullet in his head for telling Stalin that economies work in cycles. If he is indeed correct, I think we still have 10-12 years down.

We have 140,000 people entering the workforce each month through population growth. We cannot generate those jobs. A look at the rise in debt since 2000 shows it to have decreased in the household sector since 2008, but still it is exponential. And at our helm, we foolishly voted in someone who believes that growth in government is a good thing and ranked himself as the 4th best president. I'm praying for "Mars Attack" myself as I have a lot of ammunition :D

We will never again see the standard of living we enjoyed nor will our children. Some will in the right professions, but that's a small few. We did the dumbest things we could do as a nation just as Spain did. We sat on our asses and thought the world would come to us as we gave it all away. Having eaten from the Tree of Knowledge, I remain convinced that ignorance is truly bliss.
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Re: 01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

Postby SWalsh » Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:10 pm

taggard wrote:TraderGal we are for sure on the same page--but again let me just note one factor. starting in the 90s China India and other places started to kick in.


Don't be surprised that since China thinks in centuries, that they aren't engaged in helping our "Opium Wars II" and helping to keep a large portion of our citizens drugged up such that we do not act like free men should.

I'll be at a Super Bowl party with a DEA agent who is soon to retire. I'll make sure to ask him what he thinks of that theory.
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