01/20/2012 Intraday Watering

[ClarkW]

What are your thoughts on TVIX's correlation with VIX? Learned a hard lesson a couple weeks ago during expiration week (I think) as VIX went up while TVIX did not follow. I know Cobra's mentioned this before as well. Don't know if my experience was unusual because of expiration week or what.

Also, VIX has now pierced the lower BB band after tagging it yesterday. A short term bounce is imminent soon.

[tdo722]

Bulkowski on wedgie:
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 20 out of 23; 17 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 11%; 15%
Average rise/decline: 32%; 15%
Throwback/pullback rate: 56%, 69%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 70%, 30%
More here: http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html

THANK YOU KENA

I only like high tight flag, double bottoms with higher high and higher low from bulkowski. Everything else is questionable.

[champix]

just went out my short CL for a poor 30 cents gain... bloody market !
Definitely not the best intraday trading conditions ... whatever, have a nice week end everybody !

[proteus46]

Time for a music break,

People Get ready by Seal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLQ2joJ_BrI

[Al_Dente]

1 min
Volume spike
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

thanks tdo
thanks proteus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdVrwFbH ... re=related

[ClarkW]

Thanks Proteus!

Do you have data on other FOMC meetings?

You can see what happened to Silver during the FOMC meeting on September 21, 2011.

I don't think they will announce or even suggest a QE3 on Wednesday, next week.

So keep going up silver, until Wednesday at noon next week.

Only the meeting dates in 2011, hope that helps:
January 25-26
March 15
April 26-27
June 21-22 dropped 6-22 thru 6-27
August 1 (unscheduled)
August 9 (dropped 8-9)
September 20-21
November 1-2 (dropped on 11-1 but rebounded 11-2)
November 28 (unscheduled)
December 13 - a nice drop on 12/13 and 12/14

[BullTart]

What are your thoughts on TVIX's correlation with VIX? Learned a hard lesson a couple weeks ago during expiration week (I think) as VIX went up while TVIX did not follow. I know Cobra's mentioned this before as well. Don't know if my experience was unusual because of expiration week or what.

Also, VIX has now pierced the lower BB band after tagging it yesterday. A short term bounce is imminent soon.

TVIX tracks vix futures, not the vix.

You might want to learn about term structures et al before attempting to trade TVIX, or you could get your face ripped off if you are not careful.

Here's a good real time term structure chart:

http://www.cboe.com/data/volatilityinde ... dexes.aspx

[Tabby]

What are your thoughts on TVIX's correlation with VIX? Learned a hard lesson a couple weeks ago during expiration week (I think) as VIX went up while TVIX did not follow. I know Cobra's mentioned this before as well. Don't know if my experience was unusual because of expiration week or what.

Also, VIX has now pierced the lower BB band after tagging it yesterday. A short term bounce is imminent soon.

Clark,
I noticed that too. I don't like ETN . Just because I was bored I've been watching it for two days on 1 min chart. It works with SPX and BB band better but very hardto squeeze more than 10-20 cents getting out while someone shorting around 600k of the shares.

[tdo722]

What are your thoughts on TVIX's correlation with VIX? Learned a hard lesson a couple weeks ago during expiration week (I think) as VIX went up while TVIX did not follow. I know Cobra's mentioned this before as well. Don't know if my experience was unusual because of expiration week or what.

Also, VIX has now pierced the lower BB band after tagging it yesterday. A short term bounce is imminent soon.

TVIX tracks vix futures, not the vix.

You might want to learn about term structures et al before attempting to trade TVIX, or you could get your face ripped off if you are not careful.

Here's a good real time term structure chart:

http://www.cboe.com/data/volatilityinde ... dexes.aspx

I like your avatar. Reminds me of Michael Burry, haha...

[Cobra]

a little bit bigger still looks like a consolidation therefore the bias is on the upside. I don't have much to say today.

[ClarkW]

Thanks for the link Bulltart! Gotta admit, I chuckled writing your name.

What are your thoughts on TVIX's correlation with VIX? Learned a hard lesson a couple weeks ago during expiration week (I think) as VIX went up while TVIX did not follow. I know Cobra's mentioned this before as well. Don't know if my experience was unusual because of expiration week or what.

Also, VIX has now pierced the lower BB band after tagging it yesterday. A short term bounce is imminent soon.

TVIX tracks vix futures, not the vix.

You might want to learn about term structures et al before attempting to trade TVIX, or you could get your face ripped off if you are not careful.

Here's a good real time term structure chart:

http://www.cboe.com/data/volatilityinde ... dexes.aspx

[TraderGirl]

I thought I would wake up to Google back over $600 this morning, as it usu does every time it gets knocked down on earnings, what no bulls want to buy the dip??

[mozart]

Greece is just about to reach deal to cancel 70% of it's debt:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... -debt-deal

[Denali92]

As I am BORED (like everyone else….I would guess) and AMAZED by the .48 tick range so far in the SPY, I decided to check back to Jan 2007 the range for other opex days…..

The previous low was .53 (Feb 07 which proceeded to herald a delayed but significant 90pt SPX pullback)

Then there was Feb 2011 at .63 (we all know about that pullback that started right after the holiday)

Then .64 in Dec 2010 (that is better news for the bulls EXCEPT we had topped on the Tuesday and had already had a mini correction of 15 SPX points)

Then .73 in June of 07 – which was the start of a 56 pt SPX pullback

Then as there are quite a few where we declined during the week – just looking at weeks where we rallied all week

June 2010 was .76 and the Monday was a major top

Then Sep 09 where we had a .80 range and a minor low on the Monday after….

Yes, I must admit I would have preferred a more volatile opex day…

Maybe the range will change in the last hour…….

but it will be interesting to see if this narrow range is signifying something else…..

or maybe we will get more volatile in the next hour!

Have a GREAT weekend! Fresh show here in the mountains of Switzerland, so I will be making a few turns on the powder in the morning….

-D

[Tabby]

Thanks Denali92. Something cooking for next week if not happening today.

[Petsamo]

Looking bullish, fellas. But they have 30 min to change that

[Al_Dente]

Today’s Rorschach
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =243099753

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7aJOdA4 ... re=related

[Cobra]

text book target, 27 min to go. let's see.

[fehro]

right on the edge... pop? or drop?

[SB73]

As I am BORED (like everyone else….I would guess) and AMAZED by the .48 tick range so far in the SPY, I decided to check back to Jan 2007 the range for other opex days…..

The previous low was .53 (Feb 07 which proceeded to herald a delayed but significant 90pt SPX pullback)

Then there was Feb 2011 at .63 (we all know about that pullback that started right after the holiday)

Then .64 in Dec 2010 (that is better news for the bulls EXCEPT we had topped on the Tuesday and had already had a mini correction of 15 SPX points)

Then .73 in June of 07 – which was the start of a 56 pt SPX pullback

Then as there are quite a few where we declined during the week – just looking at weeks where we rallied all week

June 2010 was .76 and the Monday was a major top

Then Sep 09 where we had a .80 range and a minor low on the Monday after….

Yes, I must admit I would have preferred a more volatile opex day…

Maybe the range will change in the last hour…….

but it will be interesting to see if this narrow range is signifying something else…..

or maybe we will get more volatile in the next hour!

Have a GREAT weekend! Fresh show here in the mountains of Switzerland, so I will be making a few turns on the powder in the morning….

-D

Denali I always love your work. You are the OPEX master. Did you add any positions (short)?