Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

Weekend Watering

cougar
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Weekend Watering

Post by cougar »

Good Morning !

Now everybody knows that the uptrend is going to die on Tuesday or Wednesday. Thus, charting the recent moves of the market seems to be a superfluous exercise…
Reminiscent of the “Crónica de una muerte anunciada”, the future has been foretold. Like in the story of García Márquez, where the murder of Santiago Nasar was predetermined by an inexorable fate, we already have culprits: the New Moon, several astrological “turn dates“, the bernank who will give no hint of QE3, Greece who will defect and leave the Eurozone and AAPL who will miss expectations.
On top of that, the highly respected Tom Demark has given a similar verdict with a precise top/target area (see his interview on Bloomberg’s Channel).

This, obviously, bothers me… Too many converging but questionable predictions creating a consensus... Markets do not move according to popular vote. If they were, the herds would be making money and the real wizards would be losers.

On this chart, nothing dramatic, until we see converging Stochastic Indicators and a long yellow down-bar.
Attachments
spx.GIF
cougar
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by cougar »

In contrast to that prediction, the recently initiated down trend of TLT, which indicates a money flow from treasuries into equities, seems to be trusted by “smart money”…
Attachments
TLTd.GIF
TLTdLB.GIF
TLTLB.GIF
cougar
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by cougar »

2 daily charts of AAPL show its recently reserved participation in the present uptrend.
IMHO, they foretell an impulsive move, soon, probably after the Earnings Report.
Attachments
AAPLDA.GIF
AAPLDB.GIF
cougar
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by cougar »

Have a nice weekend and a great New Year of the Dragon!
User avatar
KeiZai
Posts: 2827
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 6:16 pm
Location: EUROPE

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by KeiZai »

Hi weekenders,

I´m enjoying my skiing holiday without computer so i will attach just the good market overview! Good luck next week and see you in february!
Bye for now


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UzQR9Hx ... r_embedded#!
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
trendfollower
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:58 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by trendfollower »

Does anyone think earnings are going to derail the rally?

This article talks about it.

http://goo.gl/nZPuo
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

cougar

It worked! Thanks for starting the thread and sharing your great charts. I'll post some too after I get a better handle on my site.

Thanks, again.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

Two weekend watering? I think I post my silly here, nice word cougar, well, as we all know the counter trend has been rough two major one didn't stick, on Friday we got another sell, will this one stick? no one knows, but here is 3rd time is a charm?
Attachments
spy.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

Here is breadth negative divergence beside everything else, I think this one is very reliable when NYMO, NYHL, NYADV all down on an up day (the other way around for Pos D.) BPSPX renko also turn yesterday after market.
Attachments
spy.JPG
Last edited by BullBear52x on Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

Trend follower, I know I have been known as a bear more than a bull, I chose not to buy on this run up that's all. OK let's talk what's in plate for bull, I expect a pull back to 5dma, buy the dip at 5dma to new high, if the weakness continue the selling on bear side is sticking, for this top 129 is bull max stop loss. good luck bulls or bears be nimble, chart is still working trade what is not what if.GLTA
Attachments
spy.JPG
Last edited by BullBear52x on Sat Jan 21, 2012 3:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
57chevy
Posts: 30
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2012 10:30 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 57chevy »

cougar wrote:Good Morning !

Now everybody knows that the uptrend is going to die on Tuesday or Wednesday. Thus, charting the recent moves of the market seems to be a superfluous exercise…
Reminiscent of the “Crónica de una muerte anunciada”, the future has been foretold. Like in the story of García Márquez, where the murder of Santiago Nasar was predetermined by an inexorable fate, we already have culprits: the New Moon, several astrological “turn dates“, the bernank who will give no hint of QE3, Greece who will defect and leave the Eurozone and AAPL who will miss expectations.
On top of that, the highly respected Tom Demark has given a similar verdict with a precise top/target area (see his interview on Bloomberg’s Channel).

This, obviously, bothers me… Too many converging but questionable predictions creating a consensus... Markets do not move according to popular vote. If they were, the herds would be making money and the real wizards would be losers.

On this chart, nothing dramatic, until we see converging Stochastic Indicators and a long yellow down-bar.
If your point of view is misdirected, at least you write well.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

TLT, I know someone asking last Friday but none of us give the straight answer, well, here is my two cents per my short term view: TLT is in the tank, trades under 5dma, need to see Pos. MACD crossed before I can make a conclusion there will be a buy-able point.
spy.JPG
some one may say we are still in trading range, well, not really here. we might get a miracle gap like last Oct. but that's wishful thinking.
spy1.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
taggard
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:52 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by taggard »

57chevy wrote:
cougar wrote:Good Morning !

Now everybody knows that the uptrend is going to die on Tuesday or Wednesday. Thus, charting the recent moves of the market seems to be a superfluous exercise…
Reminiscent of the “Crónica de una muerte anunciada”, the future has been foretold. Like in the story of García Márquez, where the murder of Santiago Nasar was predetermined by an inexorable fate, we already have culprits: the New Moon, several astrological “turn dates“, the bernank who will give no hint of QE3, Greece who will defect and leave the Eurozone and AAPL who will miss expectations.
On top of that, the highly respected Tom Demark has given a similar verdict with a precise top/target area (see his interview on Bloomberg’s Channel).

This, obviously, bothers me… Too many converging but questionable predictions creating a consensus... Markets do not move according to popular vote. If they were, the herds would be making money and the real wizards would be losers.

On this chart, nothing dramatic, until we see converging Stochastic Indicators and a long yellow down-bar.
If your point of view is misdirected, at least you write well.
Turn date? maybe--but first can we please just have a bad day or two and hit the daily 20 emas? Cougar maybe right--but the exact focus on tuesday means it could be say mon or friday which would invalidate everyone's opinion but (to me at least)not the overall idea. despite the fact that i have been/am looking for something near the end of next week or start of the following I LIKE COUGAR'S POINT and i was one of the guy posting tue was a cluster of events--now we have the state of the union on tuesday too.
sloth
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:25 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by sloth »

Just wanted to say thank you to all the posters here from a lurker, this is indeed a great message board.

Currently working on an ultra-bullish thesis lasting until fall based on several factors.
IMO, everyone is looking for the top, which might just mean the market will continue to grind higher. And the market feels like it wants to continue to climb the wall of worry and with everyone seemingly doubting this market, this gives that energy to continue up. Since no one is believing the bulls, the market wants to prove them wrong it seems. Plus another sign is when the bad news hits, the market shrugs it off.

Intermediate to long term until the fall then from the bullish perspective, the following factors point to a continuation of this uptrend despite all rationality: the recent huge doses of neverending liquidity, new dovish FOMC members, an election year where the economy is the top issue, BO and BB fighting for their jobs, 2011 flat year, improving job numbers, and seemingly much of Europe bad news all priced in. Just do not see how the bears will be able to do any serious damage until after the election.

So the ultra bullish view is eyeing 1576 on the SP500, creating a massive double top around October, and possibly the shorting opportunity of a lifetime. If you examine the monthly chart going back 6 years, the 1576 target does not look as crazy as it sounds...of course reaching such a target would almost assure a reelection which makes this scenario maybe not so outlandish.
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

Weekend Reading

I’m not a technical analyst or a fundamental analyst or any other type of equity market analyst. What I am is just a guy who likes to think he can spot completely nonsensical propaganda when he reads or hears it.

You know, the type of non-stop propaganda that attempts to manage perceptions/expectations and convince "investors" that, while things are obviously very bad in the real economy, everything is still just hunky dory in the wonderful world of equities.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

Kappa Beta Phi: Mama Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Traders

“What do Steve Cohen and Jon Corzine have in common?” the joke went. “They’re future cellmates!”

The bulk of the entertainment came in the form of musical spoofs.

Inductees sang Wall Street-themed versions of “Mama, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys,” (replacing “cowboys” with “traders”)

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/20/ ... raternity/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeFk_nuheHs

Have a nice evening.
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by 99er »

User avatar
KeiZai
Posts: 2827
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 6:16 pm
Location: EUROPE

Re: Weekend Watering

Post by KeiZai »

Target?
Attachments
spy-jan-end
spy-jan-end
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
Post Reply