11/28/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, 78% chances higher high ahead the next week, so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.

[Al_Dente]

Fear & Greed Index is 92
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[Cobra]

Fear & Greed Index is 92
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

That's what I'm worried about.

[Al_Dente]

Fear & Greed Index is 92

That's what I'm worried about.

Recall classic Al Brooks: “There is no breakdown until there is a breakdown.”
I like your swing strategy of scaling-in near bottoms and scaling-out near tops

FOUR HOUR CHART:
The RSI has been above 50 since 11/3. [Recall that the recent low was 10/30/20]. Currently the RSI momentum should be stronger but it can catch up. If/when price makes a double-top or an ATH next week, I’ll be looking for the RSI to pop, else negative divergence.
There haven’t been heavy-red declines in the NYAD for a couple weeks, which is characteristic of rallys (and some consolidations, see lime ovals).
ROUGHLY:
On the 3x SPXL, my exit is partial-out when it breaks the pink MA at 64.70 (and/or when the RSI flashes a solid neg diverg), partial-out when it breaks ~62.50 which is the midpoint of the last mini-consolidation, and all-out when it breaks ~61, then re-evaluate and wait for the next UP leg.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Cobra]

Fear & Greed Index is 92

That's what I'm worried about.

Recall classic Al Brooks: “There is no breakdown until there is a breakdown.”
I like your swing strategy of scaling-in near bottoms and scaling-out near tops

FOUR HOUR CHART:
The RSI has been above 50 since 11/3. [Recall that the recent low was 10/30/20]. Currently the RSI momentum should be stronger but it can catch up. If/when price makes a double-top or an ATH next week, I’ll be looking for the RSI to pop, else negative divergence.
There haven’t been heavy-red declines in the NYAD for a couple weeks, which is characteristic of rallys (and some consolidations, see lime ovals).
ROUGHLY:
On the 3x SPXL, my exit is partial-out when it breaks the pink MA at 64.70 (and/or when the RSI flashes a solid neg diverg), partial-out when it breaks ~62.50 which is the midpoint of the last mini-consolidation, and all-out when it breaks ~61, then re-evaluate and wait for the next UP leg.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

1128four hour.png.jpg

Thanks. That's actually a position trade strategy because scaling-in and out means there's no stop loss, otherwise the risk reward ratio would be very bad. Swing trade is a different story, it has a stop loss therefore the risk reward ration becomes very important, the winning rate doesn't matter then.

[Cobra]

Fear & Greed Index is 92
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

$AAII bulls - $AAII bears not big move, seems calm.

[Al_Dente]

“W” formation
http://thepatternsite.com/bigw.html
“For swing traders, buy at the double bottom low and ride price upward to confirmation of the double bottom (the high between the two bottoms). Price often pauses there. 
Expect price to return to near where the downtrend began.

Double Bottom:
http://thepatternsite.com/aadb.html
Sometimes price will confirm the double bottom then waffle up and down, forming a handle. When price breaks out of this region, it often moves up in a strong trend. 

[BullBear52x]

Month end, It will be hard for bears to flip the monthly bullishness as much as over bough as we have in many ways, a complacent as most of us are. lower time frames giving us a caution but weekly and monthly is still well seated as bullish, for any thing to change tomorrow for end of month, it will have to tank hard. Thanksgiving rally tense to give back all of the gain the following week, for what is worth 3550-3600 must hold. a -100 spx points dump is hard to imagine for tomorrow to really turn the table on bulls, but....crazy and mindless market we have, it will not surprise me at bit.