01/26/2012 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

The VIX looks quite benign even after today. No worries mate!

at least there's is a turn, VIX move to 25 will have problem there.

[Petsamo]

Gap down tomorrow...

Europe went pretty high, which inflated other prices. The retreat we had was not enough to bring down those prices. IWM is down only 0.11%. Personally, I'm hoping for a big gap down.

[Al_Dente]

[edit: DAILY vix candlestick compared with early Dec candle]

[usctrojan99]

Market was extended so this minor sell-off shouldn't be a surprise. I don't think there is anything that would spell doom yet. The fact that the VXX barely budged (or actually was a little negative today). shows there is no fear in the market. Complacency could be a concern, and tomorrow's GDP figures could provide an opportunity to sell off. But, I think any sell-off will still be in the confines of a normal back test before a move higher.

[Cobra]

Market was extended so this minor sell-off shouldn't be a surprise. I don't think there is anything that would spell doom yet. The fact that the VXX barely budged (or actually was a little negative today). shows there is no fear in the market. Complacency could be a concern, and tomorrow's GDP figures could provide an opportunity to sell off. But, I think any sell-off will still be in the confines of a normal back test before a move higher.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[essessme]

By my count the small overshoot of A = C opens door to more up and the move out of 1202 seems to want two more higher highs and intervening pullback into today's bar to give it the right look.... But at less than 2 pts of overshoot - 101.5% of ideal - today's high could feasibly mark the top....

[usctrojan99]

Market was extended so this minor sell-off shouldn't be a surprise. I don't think there is anything that would spell doom yet. The fact that the VXX barely budged (or actually was a little negative today). shows there is no fear in the market. Complacency could be a concern, and tomorrow's GDP figures could provide an opportunity to sell off. But, I think any sell-off will still be in the confines of a normal back test before a move higher.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

Cobra - I appreciate all the hard work you do.

I am not trying to be devil's advocate as I am nor a strong bear or bull. I am willing to switch to the other side - so call me Aaron Burr. One can make the argument either way, and can make it very compelling. But, price is truth and and fighting the tape will burn people. I've been burned my fair times, as well .

It would have to take a significant gap down tomorrow or soon to wash away this bull run. Otherwise, we can just consolidate and move higher. Even if we have bad GDP figures, will that necessitate a huge gap down? I don't think so.

[SWalsh]

Bear Porn...running correction:

I would love for this to work BIG on Friday, and not just because of some bearish put spreads I put on. but because that which gets rewarded gets repeated and no analyst sees this pattern. Is it right as in predictive of what is coming? I don't know. I do know that under EW rules it's quite legitimate and a running correction is missed because they are quite rare. If those who believe the Disney artists who paint higher prices can get bludgeoned, we will have volatility again. For a mkt to have this value and these ranges is what some would call "efficient", when there is nothing efficient at all about this market, this economy, or the globe we are on. IT'S TOO DAMN EFFICIENT IN A WORLD OF CHAOS, except for the super computers that mysteriously pay no commissions trading in 25/1000 of a second, and by that number I mean round-turn! That is how fast some of these HFTs work and that is all they are making, but millions of times a day. We could have "Colossus: The Forbin Project II", where they try to rip out the HFTs but they have control of the nuclear arsenals of the world and the markets shall not be touched or cities are lost. How fitting were it to happen. It's a shame they made that movie years ago because as an original plot I'd be selling the screen rights. NUTS!

[thanos]

Market was extended so this minor sell-off shouldn't be a surprise. I don't think there is anything that would spell doom yet. The fact that the VXX barely budged (or actually was a little negative today). shows there is no fear in the market. Complacency could be a concern, and tomorrow's GDP figures could provide an opportunity to sell off. But, I think any sell-off will still be in the confines of a normal back test before a move higher.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

Cobra - I appreciate all the hard work you do.

I am not trying to be devil's advocate as I am nor a strong bear or bull. I am willing to switch to the other side - so call me Aaron Burr. One can make the argument either way, and can make it very compelling. But, price is truth and and fighting the tape will burn people. I've been burned my fair times, as well .

It would have to take a significant gap down tomorrow or soon to wash away this bull run. Otherwise, we can just consolidate and move higher. Even if we have bad GDP figures, will that necessitate a huge gap down? I don't think so.

I'm with you. I don't see anything very bearish so far. Actually if you look "under the hood" the market is still bullish. I'm not into catching the exact top although prices did hit overhead resistance today at 1330-35 area and in hindsight selling at that point was the right thing to do. But until i see a drop below 1305-10 area along with a change in my custom momentum indicators i'll stay long. Been long since mid December. Good luck!
Front run and get run over!

[Pagat]

I just want to say i don't see strength in the market, looking XLF, XLK, SMH.
i think we'll see correction tommorow and next week.
europe must decide to run extensive QE first, then we'll see.
and the volume the other day (XLU)

[Petsamo]

Expected GDP is between 2.7% to 3.6%. Seems high to me.

[usctrojan99]

I just want to say i don't see strength in the market, looking XLF, XLK, SMH.
i think we'll see correction tommorow and next week.
europe must decide to run extensive QE first, then we'll see.
and the volume the other day (XLU)

You may be right; but, until key support is breached, I believe the trend is higher. We went up nearly 200 points from Oct to November. We could very well do the same here from November lows. Earnings were a mixed bag, but Bernanke has put the risk on mantra, for better or worse. Unless we gap down hard tomorrow (which I doubt), I'd be careful going aggressive short.

[thanos]

I just want to say i don't see strength in the market, looking XLF, XLK, SMH.
i think we'll see correction tommorow and next week.
europe must decide to run extensive QE first, then we'll see.
and the volume the other day (XLU)

You may be right; but, until key support is breached, I believe the trend is higher. We went up nearly 200 points from Oct to November. We could very well do the same here from November lows. Earnings were a mixed bag, but Bernanke has put the risk on mantra, for better or worse. Unless we gap down hard tomorrow (which I doubt), I'd be careful going aggressive short.

No they are not right. Strength and weakness are not subjective. XLF is up 20% since November and up 8% YTD that is strength. Are we are resistance and therefore a crossroads with the XLF...yes. But if you want to talk about strength then look at price. I don't think your trading account would appreciate anything else.