01/27/2012 Intraday Watering

[jarbo456]

EUR COT report...

http://content.screencast.com/users/wpr ... 7_1404.png

[Cobra]

hmm, a little late. Thank you guys, I'll see you the next Monday. Not a very bad close for bears I shall say.

[jarbo456]

EUR COT report...

http://content.screencast.com/users/wpr ... 7_1404.png

in case you guys were wondering, it's looking like we may resume the downside slide of the euro at the 38% fib level as i pointed out in my chart earlier...

large speculators are still piling in short...and the small speculators (cannon fodder) are starting to buy (thinking they are being smart??).

[cougar]

I was asked yesterday about AMLN. Here it is, briefly.

AMLN is expecting approval for the Bydureon resubmission, to be commercialized under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
In the company of the Big Bird Eli Lilly (as an associate) and with a drug that doesn’t do much harm and can even be beneficial and handy to administer… it has good chances for a YES, or at least an “approvable letter“, which of course is not the same thing…
Moderately bullish, smart cookies are building call spreads for a few days, now….
Today C/P vol ~ 2.
BUY signal on 01/24/2012.
==========
Please, do your own DD.

Breaking NEWS:
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Alkermes (ALKS) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Bydureon, the first once-weekly treatment for type 2 diabetes. Bydureon will be available in pharmacies nationwide in February.

[jarbo456]

I was asked yesterday about AMLN. Here it is, briefly.

AMLN is expecting approval for the Bydureon resubmission, to be commercialized under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
In the company of the Big Bird Eli Lilly (as an associate) and with a drug that doesn’t do much harm and can even be beneficial and handy to administer… it has good chances for a YES, or at least an “approvable letter“, which of course is not the same thing…
Moderately bullish, smart cookies are building call spreads for a few days, now….
Today C/P vol ~ 2.
BUY signal on 01/24/2012.
==========
Please, do your own DD.

Breaking NEWS:
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Alkermes (ALKS) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Bydureon, the first once-weekly treatment for type 2 diabetes. Bydureon will be available in pharmacies nationwide in February.

damn...should've played a strangle on this one too.

[Gomoosheen]

Could anyone tell me why when European stocks is trending down, the US stocks pared the losses today?

Olli Rehn's talk is given in European trading hours, right? Why EU markets didn't pick this good news and sour up back then?

Does "every dip was bought in US market" really mean a much higher target of SPY ahead? What is the target in "dip buyers'" minds? A 1500 or 1600 in the first half?

I am confused by the optimistism, or more precisely, the insanity on the street.

Could some bull give me some fresh-up and I am very much appreciate for your enlightening views.

Thanks!

Although markets go up and down, their primary purpose is to go up, right? Hope springs eternal. How is the current situation any different than that of April/ March 2011? If anything, since that time we have seen lower unemployment, improving economic indicators, a greater commitment by the world's central banks to ease and an interest rate that will stay at 0% for at least another three years. A Greek default and European recession has already been underwritten. Although Europe is by no means out of the woods, investors/traders are willing to take on further risk simply for the fact that THERE"S NOWHERE ELSE TO PUT YOUR MONEY. Looking at a yearly chart would suggest that we may eventually test 1344, 1356 and maybe 1370. Why's that hard to believe? Everyone wants to make money, which is generally done when stocks are going up. I'm actually a bear, but there's no point to that at this particular time.

[usctrojan99]

Looking at short side, falling wedge pattern and I could see TZA get up to ~$24 - top of the wedge. My personal feeling is that any move up is an opportunity to short TZA. I would rather short IWM then play with TZA.

[soku]

I was asked yesterday about AMLN. Here it is, briefly.

AMLN is expecting approval for the Bydureon resubmission, to be commercialized under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
In the company of the Big Bird Eli Lilly (as an associate) and with a drug that doesn’t do much harm and can even be beneficial and handy to administer… it has good chances for a YES, or at least an “approvable letter“, which of course is not the same thing…
Moderately bullish, smart cookies are building call spreads for a few days, now….
Today C/P vol ~ 2.
BUY signal on 01/24/2012.
==========
Please, do your own DD.

Breaking NEWS:
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Alkermes (ALKS) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Bydureon, the first once-weekly treatment for type 2 diabetes. Bydureon will be available in pharmacies nationwide in February.

yes. hope u get in. now with the approval how far can it go?

[usctrojan99]

Could anyone tell me why when European stocks is trending down, the US stocks pared the losses today?

Olli Rehn's talk is given in European trading hours, right? Why EU markets didn't pick this good news and sour up back then?

Does "every dip was bought in US market" really mean a much higher target of SPY ahead? What is the target in "dip buyers'" minds? A 1500 or 1600 in the first half?

I am confused by the optimistism, or more precisely, the insanity on the street.

Could some bull give me some fresh-up and I am very much appreciate for your enlightening views.

Thanks!

Although markets go up and down, their primary purpose is to go up, right? Hope springs eternal. How is the current situation any different than that of April/ March 2011? If anything, since that time we have seen lower unemployment, improving economic indicators, a greater commitment by the world's central banks to ease and an interest rate that will stay at 0% for at least another three years. A Greek default and European recession has already been underwritten. Although Europe is by no means out of the woods, investors/traders are willing to take on further risk simply for the fact that THERE"S NOWHERE ELSE TO PUT YOUR MONEY. Looking at a yearly chart would suggest that we may eventually test 1344, 1356 and maybe 1370. Why's that hard to believe? Everyone wants to make money, which is generally done when stocks are going up. I'm actually a bear, but there's no point to that at this particular time.

Nicely said. Naturally, I am pessimistic about this economy. I think housing has years to go before it gets better. Same with employment. Europe is a mess. Will the house fall? Most probably as you can't kick the can further. I think the Fed understands that, and they are committed to pumping enough juice in the market to compensate. Do I think it's right? No. You can't beat them, why not join them.

[ClarkW]

Great job Cougar!! I was tempted, missed out. Great work!

I was asked yesterday about AMLN. Here it is, briefly.

AMLN is expecting approval for the Bydureon resubmission, to be commercialized under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
In the company of the Big Bird Eli Lilly (as an associate) and with a drug that doesn’t do much harm and can even be beneficial and handy to administer… it has good chances for a YES, or at least an “approvable letter“, which of course is not the same thing…
Moderately bullish, smart cookies are building call spreads for a few days, now….
Today C/P vol ~ 2.
BUY signal on 01/24/2012.
==========
Please, do your own DD.

Breaking NEWS:
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Alkermes (ALKS) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Bydureon, the first once-weekly treatment for type 2 diabetes. Bydureon will be available in pharmacies nationwide in February.

[Gomoosheen]

Exactly. If you don't like the game, don't play. You only get paid for being on the right side of the trade. The market doesn't care what you think.

[SWalsh]

Could some bull give me some fresh-up and I am very much appreciate for your enlightening views.

Not a bull, but here's my 2 cents:

I speak with a very bright young man who teaches at Univ of Pittsburgh and went to whatever school is 2nd to the London School of Economics for his PhD. He is willing to sit down with any economist and argue with them that it is impossible to valuate the SPX over 500. As someone who was a professional trader I agree with his position that unless there is someone big enough to step in their way (and the big boys are all bailed out and beholding to the purse strings of government) a mkt can be held indefinitely at a far higher value than it is worth. That is until something they can no longer handle steps into the way and people lose trust in the Fed's ability to hold up the mkt. Then a mass exodus starts. I believe it was triggered on Sept 18, 2008 when the Putman MM fund said they could only pay 95 cents on the dollar and commercial paper could essentially not be sold and if at all, the spreads were quite wide to give it away. I heard a few months ago that was the situation in Europe, but we lend them our tax dollars too. I think there was a $600 billion Christmas Day gift.

I enter each trading day knowing manipulation has no opponent and since I've been running this HFT program for three months I have seen where one lone, massive PING has stopped a mkt at a trendline or a 62% retracement when breaking it could generate selling. They wish to avoid the lead-up into August 9th as they had to stuff the quotes to the point just short of breaking the machine's (the exchange servers now) ability to function to stop that decline. All tools are at the ready to be used. Included in there could be the dissolution of an ETF overnight if need be. Massive SPY short and we are due 2000 lower? Take it to the courts when an Executive Irder is signed at 6 AM saying it is closed at the night before prices OR that it is entirely in receivership. But don't forget that "greedy investors" will be stated if Chrysler Bond holders were called that. The same thing goes for the metals ETFs. And everything comes under a very vaguely written law in the National Security Act. It would be years getting to the Supreme Court to try to get blood from a stone.

If you disagree, or have questions, I'd be happy to pass them along to my friend to discuss with him as he follows the mkts and teaches about what the Fed is doing every day. He is still trying to get a job as an analyst making 3x what he makes now for a few years. That's the paradigm I'm working with as the one used up to the end of 2008 no longer exists. BTFD was never a trading methodology, but it has worked now. It reminds me of those AmeriTrade commercials where a hair dresser stopped cutting a customer's hair as her phone notified her of a fill and said, "I use AmeriTrade...so easy".

[SWalsh]

Although markets go up and down, their primary purpose is to go up, right?

I'd agree ONLY if you believe GDP will continue to grow in real terms.

[SWalsh]

You put in sell stops and machines hit them....any questions?
I wonder how long it took between entry and rape
And they complained about how crooked trading floors were
AND then the smacked it the other way back up with two spikes...LOL.

swalsh
do program colors indicate buy sell??
eg does green yellow red mean buy/uptick or sell/downtick HFT
If not, what do colors mean?
TIA

Sorry I missed this.


No, the colors have to do with whether you combined all exchanges (preferred) and also to differentiate them.

[SWalsh]

The attachment spy.GIF is no longer available

Why am I short here?!

There is no reason why anyone should be net short here.

My wave count suggests this is a correction only and being long would be dangerous if correct. As to definitive, I almost never speak in them. The mkt CAN do anything!

(barring any calamity over the weekend).

I think you just gave a reason but that last hourly candle is a fair reason to consider being short. There is no reason why anyone should be long here.

[usctrojan99]

spy.GIF

Why am I short here?!

There is no reason why anyone should be net short here.

My wave count suggests this is a correction only and being long would be dangerous if correct. As to definitive, I almost never speak in them. The mkt CAN do anything!

(barring any calamity over the weekend).

I think you just gave a reason but that last hourly candle is a fair reason to consider being short. There is no reason why anyone should be long here.

If hoping for a calamity justifies a valid reason for being net short, you probably didn't do too well. You providing a lot of "Ifs" here. If your wave count is correct.....

Here's my "when" - "When" we breach critical support (and there are number of levels at 1305, 1290, 1270), we can discuss a correction. None of that has happened, so I prefer to play the other side.

[FinancePhD]

Very well said. I think I should join the Fed as well.

Could anyone tell me why when European stocks is trending down, the US stocks pared the losses today?

Olli Rehn's talk is given in European trading hours, right? Why EU markets didn't pick this good news and sour up back then?

Does "every dip was bought in US market" really mean a much higher target of SPY ahead? What is the target in "dip buyers'" minds? A 1500 or 1600 in the first half?

I am confused by the optimistism, or more precisely, the insanity on the street.

Could some bull give me some fresh-up and I am very much appreciate for your enlightening views.

Thanks!

Although markets go up and down, their primary purpose is to go up, right? Hope springs eternal. How is the current situation any different than that of April/ March 2011? If anything, since that time we have seen lower unemployment, improving economic indicators, a greater commitment by the world's central banks to ease and an interest rate that will stay at 0% for at least another three years. A Greek default and European recession has already been underwritten. Although Europe is by no means out of the woods, investors/traders are willing to take on further risk simply for the fact that THERE"S NOWHERE ELSE TO PUT YOUR MONEY. Looking at a yearly chart would suggest that we may eventually test 1344, 1356 and maybe 1370. Why's that hard to believe? Everyone wants to make money, which is generally done when stocks are going up. I'm actually a bear, but there's no point to that at this particular time.

Nicely said. Naturally, I am pessimistic about this economy. I think housing has years to go before it gets better. Same with employment. Europe is a mess. Will the house fall? Most probably as you can't kick the can further. I think the Fed understands that, and they are committed to pumping enough juice in the market to compensate. Do I think it's right? No. You can't beat them, why not join them.

[SWalsh]

spy.GIF

Why am I short here?!

There is no reason why anyone should be net short here.

But you are giving ONLY an opinion (this is hardly a science) which may well be taken as advice by some who have just started trading and thought of going short, and that is a patently false statement. To speak in definitives when the market can, and will, do anything is folly.

As I stated, "My wave count suggests this is a correction only and being long would be dangerous if correct".

Whether a wave count is correct is ALWAYS an "if" situation. If one utilizes EW theory, as much as the machines have gamed it, one is not possibly long here. So one picks flat, or short. And I can give you "reasons" why we can go lower so depending upon whether someone scales into a position, being short here IS according to plan and there IS a reason.

(barring any calamity over the weekend).

I think you just gave a reason but that last hourly candle is a fair reason to consider being short. There is no reason why anyone should be long here.

If hoping for a calamity justifies a valid reason for being net short, you probably didn't do too well. You providing a lot of "Ifs" here. If your wave count is correct.....

The market is nothing but trying to define an edge under the premise of "if this plays out" with money management. YOU believe there is NO REASON. I would never tell someone else a definitive statement. That really was my point here.

Here's my "when" - "When" we breach critical support (and there are number of levels at 1305, 1290, 1270), we can discuss a correction. None of that has happened, so I prefer to play the other side.

That is YOUR "when" and when YOU can discuss what you believe to be true FOR YOU. A friend of mine has called every move since August 9th using cycles and a proprietary method. I wish he had not signed agreements with others who manage their own money. They sold everything coming into the high day and are 50% short. They HAVE a reason. YOU do not have a reason for THEM to not be short. Again, that is my point. Your comment is no different than "If you are short you are wrong as there is no reason". Perhaps there is more information out there that either of us are aware of?

[SWalsh]

spy.GIF

Why am I short here?!

There is no reason why anyone should be net short here. I closed out positions, but probably should have had some long exposure going into next week. I can't see why we don't test 1340-1350 next week (barring any calamity over the weekend). Everything is pointing higher and I would not think otherwise.

BTW, I posted Thursday what still might be a very bearish running correction (EW speak) and today closed lower and did not have an impulse wave up that I see. Monday might well prove my count to be wrong, but there is still a reason to be short where that move kissed that trendline. That you, and others, do not trade using the same methodology and come to different conclusions is essentially what a market is, aside from 70% being computer driven for less than pennies a million times a day.

[xfradnex]

I was noting that the TVIX was reaching close to its all time low into the 16 area, however looking at the daily view over the last year, makes me believe a quick reversal would be imposible ad momentum would carry us below 16. I included one of my S&P OH and OL charts showing that volitility is really shrinking down during the last week (ploted backwards); a very unusual pattern. Any thoughts.

I will make a guestimate on the market Monday. I would expect that OH would be up on monday given past patterns; rarely stays near zero for more than a day. I would guess up 7, since it has been a common number lately. On the OL, I would expect a continuance of the pattern of the last 2 days, maybe -2. We have to give the market top a second human try.