Weekend Watering - Someone's Gotta Do It

[mozart]

Right now market still looks bullish, there is no point to fight trend.
A lot's of people calling for top, ain't gonna happen yet, gonna happen when people least expect.
Generally it's very hard to pick top or bottoms, one could get killed by doing so.
Fear is in the air, that's just gonna drive market further, plus we could be in the long term bull market.
Fed is doing every thing to curtail recession, they seem to be on the right track.
Europe is working hard, by the look of it they gonna succeed.
China is back to market tonight after holidays, they got some catching to do, expecting Silver and Gold to fly higher.
Silver next resistance 35.70, than 37.75, Gold 1765, than 1800.
Just another opinion!

[Seawaves]

Here is my view based on DH method:

Bullish scenario: ES stopped at 1307, which is
50% RET from High to pre-High and has a target above 1340. Most likely, market will make new high to 1340 before a sizable RET.

Bearish scenario: if Friday's low broken, market may drop to 1301 and an intermediate RET may be in place.

[usctrojan99]

Here is my view based on DH method:

Bullish scenario: ES stopped at 1307, which is
50% RET from High to pre-High and has a target above 1340. Most likely, market will make new high to 1340 before a sizable RET.

Bearish scenario: if Friday's low broken, market may drop to 1301 and an intermediate RET may be in place.

We can break down to 1280-1290 and still have an uptrend intact. I don't think the bears have any case for celebration until we break 1270, and that will be hard to do. Bernanke doesn't care about inflation. The risk trade is on.

[Quantimeter]

Lately I have had quite many meetings with different professional asset managers in Europe. They have been surprisingly bullish and at the moment their approach have been very naive and straightforward. Everybody seems to believe that the stock market will keep going up simply because there are no alternative profitable asset classes.

Only few negative news can change their bullish view and thus turn the stock market into decline. The one is upcoming war in Iran/Persian Gulf, and the other is the default of Greece. For example Deutsche Bank has over 50% probability for the scenario that Greece will leave Euro (and the other candidate is Portugal).

It seems that the US investors have been putting their money into the stock market lately, but the money flow could possible turn into negative territory soon. I have an updated graph of cumulative money flow here: http://theunderlyingdax.blogspot.com/20 ... 12012.html

[waverider]

PS: do u have a “quickie list” u could post, translating futures abbreviations into English, for newbies, and for dumb folks who don’t even kno what ZB is, many thx…[/quote]

Al, excellent analysis on the fed action.

For newbies and dumb folks: if you have eyeballs, please click on the charts, and to the right of the quote you will see that /ZB is the 30 year treasury bond futures, and /DX is US dollar futurues.

Occam's razor: The maxim that assumptions introduced to explain a thing must not be multiplied beyond necessity.

Occasional observer, thanks for sharing the Credit Suisse fear barometer with us.

For those who aren't aware, the CSFB index measures 3-month investment horizons. The collar is implemented by selling a 10% OTM (out of the money) SPX call option and using the proceeds to buy an OTM put. The higher the index is, the greater the fear.

PS: Have you seen how much resistance Dr. copper is about to run into?

[quatzl]

Folks on Friday were asking about gold and GLD. Anything beyond intraday, I'd be patient for a few days and see how the scenario plays out above.

Thanks everyone for your charts and contributions. It's appreciated.

[Auole]

Confused and AfraidtoTrade got me over to Corey Rosenblum's recent (& public) analysis of how to trade Ooze Up trend. All 'cept Gold-Silver (minimal), are showing Many Divergences - Volume, ROC, MACD. Very similar to QE 2 up grind. Corey states on Ooze up trend - once past Resistences - follow closely the trend line and note on Intraday that price may pass below the MA 20 but only Touch the MA 50. I use the MA 34 and 144. Oozing up is very hard on the Bears because of the Arc and POP pattern.
Gold 'N Silver. Both approaching resistances. Intraday LinearRegression Channel will show a Maybe slight correction before on up to Resistance. I personally hold that there will be a next bigger correction($100+- on gold) WHENnnn Dow and S&P correct. Then ya all are invited over for a root cellar homebrew and hopefully they will time this with spring garden prep time. Thanks all for sharing your wonderful minds.
p.s. TDAmeritrade TOS announcement-U may want to prepare a 'Prophet' chart grid before tomorrow am... "14:00 Sunday: Futures CME quotes will be down on open...use Prophet until service provider restores service. Orders will route fine...."
Seawaves - I think we are saying similar??

[SWalsh]

I speak with a very bright young man who teaches at Univ of Pittsburgh and went to whatever school is 2nd to the London School of Economics for his PhD. He is willing to sit down with any economist and argue with them that it is impossible to valuate the SPX over 500. As someone who was a professional trader I agree with his position that unless there is someone big enough to step in their way (and the big boys are all bailed out and beholding to the purse strings of government) a mkt can be held indefinitely at a far higher value than it is worth.

I like listening to Larry Kudlow and he had a guest who believes the DOW should be at 18,500. Based on current dividends, DOW 18,500 is less radical than S&P < 500.

Yes Europe is a basket case, but I saw a statistic that the US is in worse shape if state and local government debts are added to the US debt. And no one is complaining about US local communities defaulting.

I'm neither a bull nor a bear. I just wanna be on the right side of the market.

ME TOO!

No one is complaining because there is a government-media complex that does not report reality. The one created back in 1929 was amazing. Then that last straw, which they can't exactly identify, introduced reality. With it we became a fascist nation under FDR and his National Recovery Act that was ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court. But out of it grew a belief by some that the government must always guide the economy. Sure, Ryan Seacrest is doing great as is that Kirdashian girl(s). They widely do not report bad news. There is much circus now but the bread is going out the back door to a different class than you and me. I hear worries from some retired cops, firemen, school teachers, and servicemen and women as to their losing much of their pensions at some point. Those who have a interest in how cities/states are doing are following it all closely from what I can determine. And while I really do truly despise the Bush family in many ways, were he president we would know of it.

Larry Kudlow said on a day gold rallied to its then high of $550 that it was a major short. He remained bearish whenever I heard him to $800 and then stopped discussing it. He is an economist turned actor. That what I mean when I mention my friend who is beholding to no one and says that none of these people dare give a truly bearish opinion or they will lose their jobs. I know another economist who is involved in managing billions of mostly European money. He said 3-4 months ago as spreads started widening that what he sees building is potentially far worse than 2008 and that they have fixed nothing.

There is one Lender of Last Resort to the world and it is now the Fed. I don't know the point at which they will be deemed to be irrelevant as the LOLR, but at that point the world changes. Now, I think they will essentially print until the marketplace forces austerity upon them. Their past minutes are replete with comical predictions for the future. But I still do not forget something a wise and wealthy friend told me once, "Never underestimate the steps a government will take to perpetuate its existence". I think we have seen that since this administration start intervention in March/April 2009. He recently told me that by all means always own some gold, but do so for your children as they will ban its use in trade as they cannot collect it all, and they will put revenue agents out to enforce it for all those survivalists who think they can weather what they think is coming. I don't know what is coming, but I have more reasons to suspect it is an ill wind than one at our backs.

I hear from many friends who are invested heavily, "The government is never going to let this go down again". Well let's see the Fed buy the entire bond market if defaults occur. I heard comedian Colin Quinn saying that they go to Davos, walk out and ask the people how things are, and report back that things look pretty good from what they see.

I'm surely not hoping for a crash. We are not a homogeneous society like we were back in the 1930s and there will be unthinkable problems. A severe depression will be hellish and I don't know how we'd pass through it without great loss of freedom. We are past the point where the right thing to do would have been bitter, but necessary, medicine. There is also no precedent in history that I am aware of for success in what we are doing. FWIW, In Oct 2009 (WSJ) 91 year old Ms. Schwartz, who wrote with Milton Friedman (who I think is ranked too highly by many economists), said that of all people Bernanke should know he is pushing on a string by extending bailouts to companies run poorly. I would add that effectively outlawing bankruptcy in capitalism is like outlawing purgatory/hell in religion....the discipline is destroyed. Now we have advanced crony capitalism. It has brought us OWS which could be a problem to our survival.

I'd like to be optimistic, but as a parent of recent grads who have many friends also struggling or unemployed it is difficult (actually impossible) to be as such. America got raped and no one went to jail for it as a lesson to others. I'm listening to Dickens', "A Tale of Two Cities" right now. How fitting as we have two Americas.

[su_root]

Interesting dip buy from big boys last friday?
http://traders.fi/Block_Trades

Is the bull sentiment going for a world record:
http://traders.fi/Bull_Bear

[99er]

RUT

Updated Daily chart.

http://www.99ercharts.com/

Have a great weekend!

[knurbs]

I realize I'm probably stating the obvious but the recent market is one of huge extremes (up and down). What's happened recently cannot be defined , in my opinion, as a "melt up". This market is being heavily juiced by the FED and Ben has made it clear there are no short term plans to stop. So I guess we may as well play along until the parties over. All we really need to do is look around at friends or family to see how they are doing. Can anyone honestly say they are doing dramatically better today than three years ago? Give me a break.

It's an election year and "they" will do what is needed to insure this market stays "hot" into November. Really no reason to believe otherwise. I suppose at some point we will all see our dollars become greatly devalued as we hit a hyperinflation period (does anyone really believe it's possible to keep inflation at 2% with the FED printing as they are)??

I just think when this thing goes south it's going to happen in a flash. We all know this isn't goin g to happen until they finish convincing all the players the market can't possibly go down.

[luckystar2006]

Credit Suisse team is calling for a short term top according to below chart. Banks of Nova Scotia team has been shorting EUR at 1.3070 and targeting 1.2860. Other banks are calling for a short term correction as well.