02/17/2021 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Some support here so maybe as usual rebound upon open until 5 min EMA20 from where we'll see. Possible trend day, either up or down.

[Cobra]

The members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/02 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/02 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red

[BullBear52x]

Econ number came out good but marker sell off, tells me this market is a little over weight. If we will have a down trend day, this is it.

[BullBear52x]

FOMC minutes will be very volatile today, see $VVIX.

[BullBear52x]

Look at volatility $VIX and $VVIX, day traders' heaven.

[BullBear52x]

ES next down target is 3830, crazy, well, that's what it pops up on the chart. for now lets hope bears were able to keep the day low so we will get a first red Heikin Ashi to confirm the trend change is serious or messy day to come.

[Cobra]

51% chances of higher low here. Breakout then bears are over for today - at the best it'd be a range day.

[BullBear52x]

If the auctioneer is good, it will be bid down to lower range, unless he's a rookie.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Shows the impact at 3900, going to take some time to work through.

[Cobra]

Testing day low, let's see whether bulls can make a double bottom here.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:05 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/02 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

weak sauce, market is waiting for the chairman to said a good word. RSI hit 70 for new sell setup or for bulls to show the real strength, with this reading, weak......try again.

[Al_Dente]

2/12/21 [After zh telling us for many months/year that yield above 1% would be the end of the world, they now say:]
“... a yield of 3% is the number that blows up the world. ...”

STAY TUNED AS THE ARMAGEDDON NUMBER ON yield ($TNX) KEEPS CHANGING.

2/17/21 According to Nomura's Masanari Takada: ...the main scenario is one in which “selling fatigue” sets in with the 10yr yield in the 1.3%-1.4% range, and risk asset markets see no more than a mild impact. However, he cautions that he can "also envision a risk scenario in which CTAs’ move to the short side in UST futures (TY) becomes essentially unstoppable, pushing the 10yr yield to above 1.5% and forcing US equities (the S&P 500) to adjust downward by 8% or more."

...” Global macro hedge funds and CTAs seem likely to ease up on their selling of USTs at a 10yr yield in the 1.3%-1.4% range.
• We would expect only a mild downward adjustment in US equities if the 10yr yield stays between 1.3% and 1.4%, but in a risk scenario in which the yield tops 1.5%, US equities could correct downward more sharply

[$TNX is now 12.75 or 1.275% yield]

[Cobra]

Not sure it's a double bottom or just a range.

[BullBear52x]

Bears last sell. this is what I am looking to finalize the score between bulls and bears.

[JFR]

ES daily. A pullback is in session. Normal stuff so far.

[JFR]

Dow 30. About even between the risers and fallers. VZ at the top. AAPL at the bottom.

[BullBear52x]

Bears failed. bulls' turn.