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02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:40 pm
by Cobra
Down 1 week, the next week has 62% chances to close up.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:45 am
by jademann
I sense a change in the wind. Bulls had it their way so long they think they can never lose.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:52 am
by Cobra
jademann wrote:I sense a change in the wind. Bulls had it their way so long they think they can never lose.


Not long enough, so maybe still some up rooms.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:53 am
by Cobra
$AAII Bull - $AAII -Bear shows retailers are becoming more bullish.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:36 pm
by cletus
Tech is on the verge of a “dot com” style collapse, as early as this March.

Evidence:

IPOs are equally negative on earnings as during the dot com bubble years
Sentiment is sky high - people protesting that they can’t buy stocks on Robinhood
San Francisco real estate up 8 years in a row. Max was typically 6 or 7 before a recession brought things down
The dot com bubble burst in early March 2000
Junk bond yields are at a record low
The % move over the last year mimics that of the move one year prior to the dot com bubble
High volatility mimics that of previous bull markets that overstretched and collapsed

First half of this year will be an extreme seller’s market in real estate while the second half of the year will be an extreme buyer’s market.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:42 pm
by Al_Dente
SECTOR ROTATION, relative strength, this week
220rotation.png.jpg

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:49 pm
by BullBear52x
From "It is what it is department" Market is flirting at ATH, fundamental is in a waggle mode between stimulus to kick the can down the road or we are dead. Let's hope for stay alive. When you are in doubt, stay in cash as the old sdaying. We TA nuts will continue our tea leaves reading for the short term trade.

Momentum is weakening and bearish, the price action is still above the cliff. Long term buyers stops/hedge are in for sure.
1.PNG
Negative Divergence, we don't know how deep the turn will be but one thing for sure the run up is hitting a snag when bearish crossed. buyers beware!. lower channel should a be good guess target for now.
2.PNG
Short term trend is down, in an early stage, same playbook for trend following, as long as we are under 5 DMA, rips will be sold. keep it simple. Peace!
3.PNG

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:10 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
What can move market up near term?
$1,400 onto each and every Robinhooder account.
President's sate of the union where he promises vast infrastructure spending.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:19 pm
by Al_Dente
The latest fund manager survey by BofA Global Research showed cash allocations down to their lowest level since March 2013, allocations to stocks and commodities at their highest level in around a decade and a record in the net percentage of investors taking higher-than-normal risk.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:51 pm
by TumblingDice
One thing I noticed about any large previous drawdown is that any pullback of actual size was always preceded by a divergence in a number of different market leaders:

GBP/JPY (typically the biggest tell)
Copper
HYG
TLT (negative)
SMH
XLF
Crude Oil
IWM

None of these market leaders are showing any sort of indication of weakness, at all. In fact, the outperformance of IWM to both SPY and QQQ is a huge indicator that this is usually the start of a new bull.

If it seems ridiculous and engineered, it is because it is. But the rube goldberg machine of finance doesn't care whether it is fake or not, they care about the numbers, the leading indicators, the M2 supply, the models. And all the models are pointing to continuation. VIX can continue to be milked dry until it gets down to 10. The fact that this is so obviously a bubble allows the bubble to continue, because it will always garner bets against it, with the retail calls in UVXY as a prime exhibit.

Biggest opportunities to me, right now are silver, XLE, SMH and meme stocks.

There is inevitably going to be a reckoning, but unless it comes in the form of a sudden black swan, it is not going to be here any time soon. Even the virus crash saw canaries in the coal mine going silent. Right now, they are chirping full blast.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:23 pm
by TumblingDice
silverweekly.jpg


On a weekly basis, silver could be making its first bullish cross above 0 in 9 years, its RSI is maintaining above 50, and it is keeping above the 20 SMA.

Any break of 30 is going to send it to at least 50. A break of 50 brings in the animal spirits.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:41 pm
by Al_Dente
There is a huge shortage of silver, according to “everybody”
Reportedly, over 50% of the short interest in silver is held by 8 major banks

THE REALLY BIG NEWS of the last week is the change in the prospectuses for SLV and SIVR
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan ... rge-banks/

Interview on commodities, especially silver. It’s 29 min long but worth every minute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:45 pm
by TumblingDice
Al_Dente wrote:There is a huge shortage of silver, according to “everybody”
Reportedly, over 50% of the short interest in silver is held by 8 major banks

THE REALLY BIG NEWS of the last week is the change in the prospectuses for SLV and SIVR
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan ... rge-banks/

Interview on commodities, especially silver. It’s 29 min long but worth every minute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo


Cool video and good summary. I would feel nervous betting against the entire TBTF bank complex, even if the premise and logic of the bet is correct. But knowing that JPM, the OG bank that is pretty much at the center of the financial system, is on the long side, brings me great comfort. Jamie Dimon also recently said, I believe in January 2020, that bonds are the only bubble he sees, which pretty much confirms their position on this. The game used to be to suppress the metals to keep paper assets such as bonds and stocks propped up. This was publicly outlined in a paper by Larry Summers. Now the name of the game is to create inflation at any cost. A booming silver market will surely signal inflation to the world, which in turn will create even more inflation.

It's basically a game of musical chairs now between these 8 shorts and all it takes is one to start covering. Timing is tricky but I think July calls will print.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:55 pm
by Cobra
I mentioned in order to make a top, $NYMO needs go far below zero then rise to close zero. so far it went as expected, now $NYMO probably is in the rising phase which means $SPY should still have some up rooms at least.

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:41 pm
by tim-follows
TumblingDice wrote:One thing I noticed about any large previous drawdown is that any pullback of actual size was always preceded by a divergence in a number of different market leaders:

None of these market leaders are showing any sort of indication of weakness, at all. In fact, the outperformance of IWM to both SPY and QQQ is a huge indicator that this is usually the start of a new bull.

If it seems ridiculous and engineered, it is because it is. But the rube goldberg machine of finance doesn't care whether it is fake or not, they care about the numbers, the leading indicators, the M2 supply, the models. And all the models are pointing to continuation. VIX can continue to be milked dry until it gets down to 10. The fact that this is so obviously a bubble allows the bubble to continue, because it will always garner bets against it, with the retail calls in UVXY as a prime exhibit.

Biggest opportunities to me, right now are silver, XLE, SMH and meme stocks.

There is inevitably going to be a reckoning, but unless it comes in the form of a sudden black swan, it is not going to be here any time soon. Even the virus crash saw canaries in the coal mine going silent. Right now, they are chirping full blast.


All valid points, bulls seem to show and buy all dips, and the long term bearish divergences in breadth, Nymo, McClellans have not been rewarding to bears....

NEXT Big Chirp might be China warning a 2nd time, That asset prices are getting too rich. Dont know if it gets a 3-5% correction
in major indexes, but might be a time to buy befor month end

Re: 02/20/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:05 pm
by cletus
Futures are beginning to dive. Cobra appears to be wrong footed. Nearly all analysts are calling for more upside. Market doesn’t like consensus.