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Great chart and I really enjoy your work.Al_Dente wrote:The new lows (61) at Friday’s fresh spy high are a chink in the bulls armour
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =253140071
Breadth is bullish, and the top/bottom signals on $NYADV (Cobra’s) are silent
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =204362179
The ratio $NYHGH:$NYTOT and the net new highs $NYHL are signaling a top/top zone. (You can see signal failures marked in blue dashed lines)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251929526
All volatility hit fresh lows, and all pierced the lower bolinger bands except $RVX (small caps) and $OVX (oil).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =256313540
$BPINDU is extreme at 96.67. The last time it hit 96 was April 2010, at what looks like (see pink) one week before the high.
($BPSPX and $BPCOMPQ are not at extremes; they’ve been higher just last year).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... =250487270
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_FLLz4U ... re=related
above all when starting options paper trade them--you need to wrap your mind around a different concept. after you are hitting 7 out of 10 trades on paper--start by trading only 1-4 contracts and test. if you are still hitting 7 out of 10 slowly (slowly) scale up. Most people fail in options trying to directionally trade them and not taking the time to learn how they actually act under real situations. (including buy ask spreads on short term ones). The second problem is trying to use too much leverage early on.trendfollower wrote:Good read and educational material if your considering trading options:
http://goo.gl/nZPuo
Got you, thanks!su_root wrote:AAII.com bull vs. bear sentiment poll plotted as a chart (just updated):
http://traders.fi/Bull_Bear
Any thoughts..?
@ cobra, I know you (also) follow block trades money flow on a daily basis. I've started to plot these in diagrams and you may use them on your site if you need/like. Just a "thank you" is enough as compensation
http://traders.fi/Block_Trades
Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.
Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
endoal wrote:This is from a buddy of mine at Cantor-Fitzgerald.
It is the first I have heard of the BDI.
Just another piece in the puzzle.
I thought some of you may have some more insight.
As I have pointed out earlier, government statistics DO change over time. Sometimes due to actual changes in statistical groups….. Sometimes due to monkey business and political statistical manipulation.
Dropping 1.2 MILLION people from a data pool will definitely change things.
BUT…. What if there were an index that outside political monkey business?
I used to have a relative who lived by Subic Bay. It has a bustling and busy port. He was there during the financial crash of 2008.
During that time, he described Subic Bay as an enormous parking lot of cargo ships. NOTHING was moving. The local economy was crashing.
Here's the Bloomberg link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND to see the actual chart. You can see that there is a clear and direct relationship to the market crash in 2008. As the market rallied back in 2009 – 2010, so did the BDI index.
Recently, there has been a disconnect from our own markets and the BDI index. I believe the reason our markets continue to rally is due to the funds fleeing Europe for safer investment grounds.
But the BDI does not lie….. The global economy is very weak. There is huge excess capacity in the shipping world. We are literally flirting with historic lows.
This tells me we still have a long way to go….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Thank You! I have also another one which calculates 2 more years but I've decided to use this model since I think it is of more use than ~2008 pullback. Regarding the pullback, I'm not sure how much signs there will be. Personally I think it will come more or less out of the blue sky but perhaps cobra's crystal ball manage to snap up some things before we pull back.xfradnex wrote:Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.
Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
For some reason, I can not see almost all graphic images on your web site using Explorer 9. however, I could see your SPX stats table?su_root wrote:Thank You! I have also another one which calculates 2 more years but I've decided to use this model since I think it is of more use than ~2008 pullback. Regarding the pullback, I'm not sure how much signs there will be. Personally I think it will come more or less out of the blue sky but perhaps cobra's crystal ball manage to snap up some things before we pull back.xfradnex wrote:Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.
Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
I'm more interested to see the nature of the pullback, how volatile etc, than when the actual pullback will start. As always, time will tell. Personally I have the odds for a pullback 7:3 this month and I will try to have a working hedge.
As you said and as the averages predict, a pullback should/could be very close. I though think that it is not a good idea to short based on averages but people with long positions should think about cutting in gains and/or setting tighter stop/win levels for their positions.
Last, I've also decided to start collecting them basic TA-signals. For those interested, I'll publish them on this site:
http://traders.fi/TA-signals
The method is weight calculated on a scale from 1 to 10 and the outcome is plotted as a bullis% vs. a bearish%. There is also a neutral value but it is not taken into consideration at the moment. I don't have enough data yet but at the end of this month there should be something to read. Let's see how it works out, perhaps it will also be of any use to cobra.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... -week.aspx posted today. very positiveAl_Dente wrote:One final pre-game astonishment.
What is happening in the durable goods sector? Are folks buying appliances and home-care robots??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =256412860
All I can find on WHR is eps beat and mgmt raised its FY12 and FY13 eps estimate [aka kool-aid] from $5.10 and $7.12 to $6.50 and $7.41 respectively.
iRobot (IRBT) doesn’t even report until 2/8….. leaks?
Strange.. But I have never tested with IE since that company products are banned ove here Thank you for the info though, I've to find a Windows PC and test this.xfradnex wrote:
For some reason, I can not see almost all graphic images on your web site using Explorer 9. however, I could see your SPX stats table?