Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

trendfollower
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:58 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by trendfollower »

Good read and educational material if your considering trading options:

http://goo.gl/nZPuo
wayne0708
Posts: 815
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 6:37 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by wayne0708 »

Al_Dente wrote:The new lows (61) at Friday’s fresh spy high are a chink in the bulls armour
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =253140071

Breadth is bullish, and the top/bottom signals on $NYADV (Cobra’s) are silent
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =204362179

The ratio $NYHGH:$NYTOT and the net new highs $NYHL are signaling a top/top zone. (You can see signal failures marked in blue dashed lines)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251929526

All volatility hit fresh lows, and all pierced the lower bolinger bands except $RVX (small caps) and $OVX (oil).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =256313540

$BPINDU is extreme at 96.67. The last time it hit 96 was April 2010, at what looks like (see pink) one week before the high.
($BPSPX and $BPCOMPQ are not at extremes; they’ve been higher just last year).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... =250487270

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_FLLz4U ... re=related
Great chart and I really enjoy your work.
su_root
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:59 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by su_root »

AAII.com bull vs. bear sentiment poll plotted as a chart (just updated):
http://traders.fi/Bull_Bear

Any thoughts..?

@ cobra, I know you (also) follow block trades money flow on a daily basis. I've started to plot these in diagrams and you may use them on your site if you need/like. Just a "thank you" is enough as compensation :-)
http://traders.fi/Block_Trades
___________________________________________________________
Bull vs. Bear sentiment, DAX & SPX cycle theory @ http://traders.fi
taggard
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:52 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by taggard »

trendfollower wrote:Good read and educational material if your considering trading options:

http://goo.gl/nZPuo
above all when starting options paper trade them--you need to wrap your mind around a different concept. after you are hitting 7 out of 10 trades on paper--start by trading only 1-4 contracts and test. if you are still hitting 7 out of 10 slowly (slowly) scale up. Most people fail in options trying to directionally trade them and not taking the time to learn how they actually act under real situations. (including buy ask spreads on short term ones). The second problem is trying to use too much leverage early on.

again it's simple--scale and consider the situation. Try to avoid dumb ego plays such as buying stuff for 2 cents on Thur with say 1k for a move up Friday. this is not how you make money--positions size is everything--not some cute move that you so totally lucked out on and will likely not admit to your self that this was the case.

Bottom line--options are powerful little tools and you should treat them (and the market makers) with respect. So build a solid base over time--and then get cute if you must.

at the start with either trading or trading options--everyone is in a hurry and stuff is "exciting". sooner or later these guys get killed a few times. if they survive they become less in a hurry--and stuff is less "exciting". then they have a real chance of getting someplace. if you get really amped trading--check you ratio of wins to losses--if it is not 70-80% it's a good time to calm down and find some way to get really excited someplace else (BASE jumping-Parkour-seriously odd sex with out there women--that sort of thing).

with options futures and even stock--the object is to get you win ratio to the point where you can SAFELY trade size.

Mandatory acknowledgement to "dudes who figure paper trading is all bogus or whatever". Everyone serious trains--SEALs train. Neurosurgeons train. Musicians train. The key argument that comes up always boils down to "it's different if you have money at stake" That is true--and that is why you start with 1-4 contracts and just concentrate for say 10-30 trades on getting everything right aside from making money (because you usually lose money (or make tiny gains) on small numbers of contracts even if your trade is right unless it hard core right.

Bottom line--forget the rush--you will get there so much faster. learn slowly--be emotionally consistent (huge issue) and refine your trades and perceptions of charts. focus on consistent wins so that you can trade size--that is where the action is.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by Al_Dente »

Last charts …. bull and bear
You maybe saw my WEEKLY “Offensive/Defensive Ratio” chart breakout, posted two weeks (?) ago.
Here is the bull-breakout on DAILY, paired with another offensive/defensive ratio XLB:XLP
which I “borrowed” from rhight last year (thanks rhight)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY:XL ... =245038961

Then, let’s pretend that AAPL, IBM, MSFT and ORCL are important mkt bellweathers.
(AAPL is 14.80% and IBM 8.52% and MSFT 7.64% of XLK top three holdings.
Further, AAPL is 14.03% and MSFT 8.49% and ORCL 6.28% of QQQ top three holdings).

If u run these charts separately on WEEKLY … check for momentum indicator divergences… but we all know, and u can see here,
divergences can persist for a long time b4 a meaningful correction…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p= ... =256381205

These crazy days when intraday charts show neg divergence, it just signals me to get my drug prescriptions refilled.
If neg divergences persist on WEEKLY CHARTS it’s a whole different story (isn’t it?).

PS: Thanks Cobra
Paging speck, nice chart, pls post more, we don’t be cruel here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUWMSVDPdGQ
Paging jarbo, check yr pm
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
taggard
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:52 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by taggard »

PAGING AL

“I give 98 percent of my mental energy to Chess. Others give only 2 percent.” [Bobby Fischer, Chess Grandmaster]

again totally outstanding quote. at the risk of boring other readers i am going to post one of my favorite stories which i think shows the path to this state

I asked Don how he came to realize his talents and he explained it all started with PRACTICING CONCENTRATION. When he was a young boy every summer he visited a circus near his home. A carnival magician took a liking to him set the boy home with an assignment to look a regular drinking glass and report back how many things he could observe about the glass. After the first week Don could only list 10 different characteristics such as smoothness reflection and translucence. By the end of the summer however he managed to describe SEVERAL HUNDRED more! He said the concentration from this transformed him in many ways from that way forward.

KEY HINT FOLKS—

Concentration states are difficult to describe for they come about in paradoxical ways. For example they require a degree of INTENTION BUT RESULT IN TRANFORMATIVE LEARNINGS WHEN THE INTENTION IS LARGLY FORGOTTEN. They are completely natural phenomena yet we seldom recognize them when they come upon us. (both quotes from primal awarness-by don trent jacobs--the kid with the drinking glass? Don Buck--(dead now) martial artist.)

PROVE IT TO YOUR SELF--

get a clock with a second hand sit at a desk and watch the clock. breath in for 5 seconds-hold the breath for 5 seconds-breath out for 5 seconds-hold the breath for 5 seconds. this counts as one cycle. next just sit there and do this 50 and count as you go. often people starting out lose count very quickly.

the idea to get from this is your mind is shifting focus--hence you are only using a fraction of your abilities as you literally are having problems holding your attention in one place. This can be fixed easily--and that is the point with the water glass idea--which eventually leads to something closer to Fischer's point.

Trading is very hard to focus fully on (and is a great place to practice) because everything outside (and often inside) is changing at the same time. Thus this whole idea of bringing everything we have in terms of mental focus to the game is so important.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58558
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by Cobra »

su_root wrote:AAII.com bull vs. bear sentiment poll plotted as a chart (just updated):
http://traders.fi/Bull_Bear

Any thoughts..?

@ cobra, I know you (also) follow block trades money flow on a daily basis. I've started to plot these in diagrams and you may use them on your site if you need/like. Just a "thank you" is enough as compensation :-)
http://traders.fi/Block_Trades
Got you, thanks!

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
ocassional observer
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:07 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by ocassional observer »

for very long term investments (such as retirement accounts):
platinum gold ratio.jpg
we are now in a very unusual situation that was observed only a handful of years since 1968:
Image

the internals look like a bottom in the platinum:gold ratio was formed, however it is, as always, unclear how the metals will resolve this situation. if you believe that in this age of printing precious metal shall continue to flourish, than it seems platinum is the metal du jour.
endoal
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:50 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by endoal »

This is from a buddy of mine at Cantor-Fitzgerald.
It is the first I have heard of the BDI.
Just another piece in the puzzle.
I thought some of you may have some more insight.



As I have pointed out earlier, government statistics DO change over time. Sometimes due to actual changes in statistical groups….. Sometimes due to monkey business and political statistical manipulation.

Dropping 1.2 MILLION people from a data pool will definitely change things.

BUT…. What if there were an index that outside political monkey business?


I used to have a relative who lived by Subic Bay. It has a bustling and busy port. He was there during the financial crash of 2008.

During that time, he described Subic Bay as an enormous parking lot of cargo ships. NOTHING was moving. The local economy was crashing.

Here's the Bloomberg link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND to see the actual chart. You can see that there is a clear and direct relationship to the market crash in 2008. As the market rallied back in 2009 – 2010, so did the BDI index.

Recently, there has been a disconnect from our own markets and the BDI index. I believe the reason our markets continue to rally is due to the funds fleeing Europe for safer investment grounds.

But the BDI does not lie….. The global economy is very weak. There is huge excess capacity in the shipping world. We are literally flirting with historic lows.

This tells me we still have a long way to go….

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
User avatar
xfradnex
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by xfradnex »

su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.

Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by Al_Dente »

“You had me at hello” [Renee Zellweger to what’s-his-name in “Jerry Maguire”]


PAGING TAGGARD, yea, don’t think I missed yr 75-85% post yesterday…
You had me at 85%
Give more pls…how u get 85% win rate, dude ????
show us magic pls


“Show me the money” [what’s-his-name in “Jerry Maguire”]


And just so u kno I’m serious, here is a story/joke 4 u:
Kid comes home from school with a writing assignment.
He asks his father for help. "Dad, can you tell me the difference between potential and reality?"
Father looks up thoughtfully, and says, "I'll demonstrate. Go ask your mother if she would sleep with Robert Redford for a million dollars.
Then go ask your sister if she would sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars. Then report back and tell me what you've learned."
The kid is puzzled, but decides to go ask his mother: "Mom, if someone gave you a million dollars, would you sleep with Robert Redford?"
"Don't tell your father, but yes, I would," she says.
He then goes to his sisters room. "Sis, if someone gave you a million dollars, would you sleep with Brad Pitt?"
Sis replies, "OMG Definitely !!!"
The kid ponders all this, and returns to his father. "Dad, I think I've got it figured out….
Potentially, we are sitting on two million bucks, but in reality, we are living with two sluts."
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
xfradnex
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by xfradnex »

endoal wrote:This is from a buddy of mine at Cantor-Fitzgerald.
It is the first I have heard of the BDI.
Just another piece in the puzzle.
I thought some of you may have some more insight.



As I have pointed out earlier, government statistics DO change over time. Sometimes due to actual changes in statistical groups….. Sometimes due to monkey business and political statistical manipulation.

Dropping 1.2 MILLION people from a data pool will definitely change things.

BUT…. What if there were an index that outside political monkey business?


I used to have a relative who lived by Subic Bay. It has a bustling and busy port. He was there during the financial crash of 2008.

During that time, he described Subic Bay as an enormous parking lot of cargo ships. NOTHING was moving. The local economy was crashing.

Here's the Bloomberg link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND to see the actual chart. You can see that there is a clear and direct relationship to the market crash in 2008. As the market rallied back in 2009 – 2010, so did the BDI index.

Recently, there has been a disconnect from our own markets and the BDI index. I believe the reason our markets continue to rally is due to the funds fleeing Europe for safer investment grounds.

But the BDI does not lie….. The global economy is very weak. There is huge excess capacity in the shipping world. We are literally flirting with historic lows.

This tells me we still have a long way to go….

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Thanks for bring this up. It looks like BDI is bottoming out now. It looks like the BDI bottomed out before signaling that the SPX would rebound in the past. However we rebounded already, so then what, more up?
Attachments
Untitled.png
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
su_root
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:59 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by su_root »

xfradnex wrote:
su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.

Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.
Thank You! I have also another one which calculates 2 more years but I've decided to use this model since I think it is of more use than ~2008 pullback. Regarding the pullback, I'm not sure how much signs there will be. Personally I think it will come more or less out of the blue sky but perhaps cobra's crystal ball manage to snap up some things before we pull back.

I'm more interested to see the nature of the pullback, how volatile etc, than when the actual pullback will start. As always, time will tell. Personally I have the odds for a pullback 7:3 this month and I will try to have a working hedge.

As you said and as the averages predict, a pullback should/could be very close. I though think that it is not a good idea to short based on averages but people with long positions should think about cutting in gains and/or setting tighter stop/win levels for their positions.

Last, I've also decided to start collecting them basic TA-signals. For those interested, I'll publish them on this site:
http://traders.fi/TA-signals

The method is weight calculated on a scale from 1 to 10 and the outcome is plotted as a bullis% vs. a bearish%. There is also a neutral value but it is not taken into consideration at the moment. I don't have enough data yet but at the end of this month there should be something to read. Let's see how it works out, perhaps it will also be of any use to cobra.
___________________________________________________________
Bull vs. Bear sentiment, DAX & SPX cycle theory @ http://traders.fi
User avatar
xfradnex
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by xfradnex »

su_root wrote:
xfradnex wrote:
su_root wrote:I hope you all have a good weekend and manage to think about something else than next weeks stock market.

Here is some averages for them who likes numbers (stats taken from http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500 )
Days average rise low to high 44, last high to new high 67. At the moment, SPX low to 1344 = rise of 75 days and last high to 1344 is +133 points which is over 2 x the average. Average bottom to new top is 134 points and average new high is 29 points. At the moment, bottom to 1344 is 186 points and last high to 1344 is 51 points. As you can see, we are beyond all averages at the time of writing. Biggest movement before pullback was 233 points (or +34,4%). The average movement in % is 13,4% and at the moment the movement from last bottom to 1344 is +16,06%. 4 times since 2009 bull, we have moved over +16% (+34,4% , +17,1% , +17% & +20,3%). Based on these averages, we are getting very close to the upper limit since the +34% move was an overshot pullback.
Nice web site. Thanks for your input. It looks like there is a good reason to look for a pullback soon. Hope we see the signs before it happens.
Thank You! I have also another one which calculates 2 more years but I've decided to use this model since I think it is of more use than ~2008 pullback. Regarding the pullback, I'm not sure how much signs there will be. Personally I think it will come more or less out of the blue sky but perhaps cobra's crystal ball manage to snap up some things before we pull back.

I'm more interested to see the nature of the pullback, how volatile etc, than when the actual pullback will start. As always, time will tell. Personally I have the odds for a pullback 7:3 this month and I will try to have a working hedge.

As you said and as the averages predict, a pullback should/could be very close. I though think that it is not a good idea to short based on averages but people with long positions should think about cutting in gains and/or setting tighter stop/win levels for their positions.

Last, I've also decided to start collecting them basic TA-signals. For those interested, I'll publish them on this site:
http://traders.fi/TA-signals

The method is weight calculated on a scale from 1 to 10 and the outcome is plotted as a bullis% vs. a bearish%. There is also a neutral value but it is not taken into consideration at the moment. I don't have enough data yet but at the end of this month there should be something to read. Let's see how it works out, perhaps it will also be of any use to cobra.
For some reason, I can not see almost all graphic images on your web site using Explorer 9. however, I could see your SPX stats table?
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by Al_Dente »

One final pre-game astonishment.
What is happening in the durable goods sector? Are folks buying appliances and home-care robots??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =256412860

All I can find on WHR is eps beat and mgmt raised its FY12 and FY13 eps estimate [aka kool-aid] from $5.10 and $7.12 to $6.50 and $7.41 respectively.
iRobot (IRBT) doesn’t even report until 2/8….. leaks?
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
xfradnex
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by xfradnex »

Al_Dente wrote:One final pre-game astonishment.
What is happening in the durable goods sector? Are folks buying appliances and home-care robots??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =256412860

All I can find on WHR is eps beat and mgmt raised its FY12 and FY13 eps estimate [aka kool-aid] from $5.10 and $7.12 to $6.50 and $7.41 respectively.
iRobot (IRBT) doesn’t even report until 2/8….. leaks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... -week.aspx posted today. very positive
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
taggard
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:52 pm

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by taggard »

[quote="Al_Dente"]“You had me at hello” [Renee Zellweger to what’s-his-name in “Jerry Maguire”]


PAGING TAGGARD, yea, don’t think I missed yr 75-85% post yesterday…You had me at 85% Give more pls…how u get 85% win rate, dude ????show us magic pls (you already did today al)

“I give 98 percent of my mental energy to Chess. Others give only 2 percent.” [Bobby Fischer, Chess Grandmaster]


CONCENTRATE YOUR EFFORTS AND DO THE LEAST POSSIBLE

well ok but the problem is most people blow this off. Consider the number of charts you posted this week--each one was carefully done and considered. each one illustrates either chart action (asset movement) or chart action in the context of TA. your attention is split over many areas. Please do not misunderstand me--this is not being critical in any way--i am just stating a fact.

each chart can only have so much of your attention and awareness. so in effect you are using a shot gun approach to thinking to some degree--clearly you are good at this stuff and have been at it a while so you have a certain amount of attention and intent to spread around. other people could have more or less.

if someone--lets say al brooks--just watchs price action on a 5 min e mini chart using a very simple rule set--his attention and intent is more concentrated

so i am suggesting that the more you spread out your attention and intent--the more it is spread out. The more you concentrate it the more it is concentrated. hopefully this is clear so far (and not seen in any way as disrespectful as it is not)

then we have Cobra last aug (which drew me towards this site--he is an honest and thoughtful guy) saying something to the effect that "chart reading is not trading--which is why i am not rich as i have emotional issues in the trades". Again i am translating this a bit because emotional could be low blood sugar--or any of 1000 physical processes. in Cobra's case my greatest concern with what i know is that he works pretty hard--and i think this could impact trading to some degree. vince lombardi said "fatigue makes cowards of us all".

SO READING CHARTS AND TRADING ARE NOT THE SAME

the story of wing chung was that a very small girl came to a kung fu teachers wife with the need to beat a large (village butcher) guy who was hitting on her. thus the basic wing chung straight punch which relies more on speed and placement than power was born. this gal practiced a very limited set (mostly straight punch) and wound up kicking the larger bullies butt since she was faster and more focused.

CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT GOAL (TRADES THAT WORK)

so in any situation being focused on the exact problem (trading) and using the least moving parts (charts indicators stocks classses of assets econ figures and so on) is key. most people on the site actually tend to do far too much work and make the continual mistake of bringing in economics or the market being rigged or other extraneous issues. this splits their attention. again maybe they can handle this--but it's still not the most effective method of trading as all this other stuff requires time and effort. (just because it's not the most effective method of trading doesn't mean it's a sin--just that it doesn't make trading easier or work better most of the time in 5 min to daily time frames)

Summing up first part--define exactly the idea say 80% winning trades. Second remove everything not directly required to do this. Third concentrate as much intent and awareness as possible on the trades. (end part 1)

TRUST NO ONE-ESP YOUR SELF--WATCH EVERY STEP YOU TAKE

Records and your past actions--trades work or don't work for a reason or a collection of reasons. you need like 100-500 trades to really know who you are. and you need a lot of information on these trades--such as when they were made time wise (what part of the month day hour)--what exactly your experience was at that time to the best of your ability--lose the ego you want to win more than you want to defend yourself. Why you think you made the trade--what you felt later if it worked or didn't work and on and on.

in short in part 2 you want to turn your attention to your own actions and try to see why you are making them--this allows you to change either your action or your method of trading to fit the action.

95% of trading is inside your brain and mind--your mind is not your brain--your mind is what you are aware of (on a good day with the wind in your direction).

YOU ARE TRACKING YOURSELF LIKE A LARGE DANGEROUS ANIMAL IN THE JUNGLE (at nite)-(you must know you don't know yourself)

the problem is what you are not aware of--and this is what you are seeking to do with this record keeping and the most honest self reflection you can muster. again I am doing this for your greater good in the future and willing to put up with the pain of seeing my flaws and stupidity in the present.

the first thing you will see is a pattern of bad trades--over time look for anything that is the same with all of them.

you can see the advantage of only trading the fewest number of stocks and in the fewest number of time frames--this allows you to easily see outside issues that can sort of hide (or hyde) in situations where you play a lot of stuff at once.

second you are looking for your personal flaws--that you are unaware of.third you are fixing them.

this is the way i would say it to a trader very quickly in a bb situation where you can't post past a certain size without crashing the server.

the other way is meditation which is better you can goog don buck and while you may need to read several lame sites--this is how this guy did it. again consider the story--when he was a kid--he looked at a water glass and saw over 200 qualities in one 3 month period. discipline looking at one thing very closely over time on a regular basis. there was no way to argue (as many here do) that the glass was subject to market manipulation--chart distortions-hft trading-general economics-cash flows etc.

these ideas may or may not be totally valid--the only point i am making is that they don't help a technical trader make technical trades. Because the trade is in your head and is only the price action during the trade.

CONCRETE (BOTH MEANINGS)

since all this may seem overdone to most readers--consider this very concrete idea--al brooks makes the point that you should enter a trend depending on strength. so if it is a slow trend--enter on 1st or 2nd pull back. if it is a fast trend more or less jump in. cougar noted that he adds to positions in trends so as to train himself to push them. because the trend always goes further than we think. you will eventually make a mistake--but the other 6-9 trades will be right. just ignore everything other than price action on a 5 min using a 20 ma and buy the trend using futs or options--now you can read the other 400 pages and learn a lot--but what struck me personally was this above.

why was that? because my personal flaw is wanting to be in control--so i like to try to figure out pivots--as such i failed to take trends over and over or played scalps--because i was experienced and could sort of pull this off-i failed to fix something that is a huge personal flaw. we could tear me apart and figure that out (i am a loner don't like crowds so maybe that is a problem when joining them) obviously i like to be in control (which is mostly an illusion in life and trading--as the world and market is bigger than we are etc etc.

but who cares about my problems--here the point is fix the mistake and find the most likely area to have a trade work--which is of course the least easy one to trade since i am feeling like it's obviously going to pivot.

hopfully the theory stuff and my personal application shows the direction for the higher % trades working.

concentrate your awareness--do the least chart work possible--keep your self mentally and physically in the best shape--and keep records and find your hidden habits and flaws--and be patient and over time you concentration of awareness (intent) will get stronger. in the end the only thing that counts really is how you can turn this on yourself. all the money in the world will not make your life better if something is not right--where ever we go--there we are.

thanks al i have to focus a bit this week but i will try to be back next weekend--I have a bunch of family matters going on and will be sort of half in and out for the next 20-90 days.

ps if you want to be amused you can gamble 9.30 plus shipping on "dancing with lions" and read page 45-71 which is very funny stuff and should be required reading for TA guys since it disputes most of what they hold to be "self evident". 75 to 90 is worth while also.
in the first section we find the major reason nobody gets better in a hilarious story--in the other we find what intent is like under massively messed up situation. great stuff you will laugh you will cry you will likely drink suds and eat popcorn while you learn.

pps--al brooks is using "the water glass school of trading". 10k hours looking at e mins with nothing but price action--and he kills it. so that is why i find his stuff so appealing--the writing is very tough stuff--and i think it pays to outline or similfy the book--i spend 3 weeks part time about 80-100 hours reading and out lining and then 3 months testing and trying--but while i disagree with his use of text--this guy clearly gets the idea--one chart/lap top/total concentration=kills it.

finally i do not mean to offend anyone so please if you use another way--don't see it this way--i am only answering al's email.
trendfollower
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:58 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by trendfollower »

Using mathematics to find trades:

http://goo.gl/7hn7e
su_root
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:59 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by su_root »

xfradnex wrote:
For some reason, I can not see almost all graphic images on your web site using Explorer 9. however, I could see your SPX stats table?
Strange.. But I have never tested with IE since that company products are banned ove here :-) Thank you for the info though, I've to find a Windows PC and test this.
___________________________________________________________
Bull vs. Bear sentiment, DAX & SPX cycle theory @ http://traders.fi
su_root
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:59 am

Re: 02/04/2012 Weekend Watering

Post by su_root »

60min /YM , will it be "different" this time..?

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3756 ... on006u.png
___________________________________________________________
Bull vs. Bear sentiment, DAX & SPX cycle theory @ http://traders.fi
Post Reply