02/11/12 Weekend Watering

[dcurban1]

Weekend Technicals, February 11, 2012 – SPX and Nasdaq Composite

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/02/ ... 2-spx.html

Something new. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite charts with the Summation, McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, Chaikin Money Flows, and Stocks above 50 day moving average.

Threw in the VIX at the bottom.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING SB73
I went to my schwab platform yest, focused only there (SNAFU on stkcharts; AWOL here).
Longed VXX again on the breakout, so I got only half of what u/TVIX got. I am VERY happy.
19 stick squeeze yest on VXX/TVIX (both have same candlestick structure). NINETEEN STICKS (depending on where u start count, your stick count will vary). Nineteen.

SSSSSQUEEZE ANALYSIS:
(SB73: This kool-aid applies ONLY to intraday scalping, not overnights). EVERY sqz is unique.
This is TVIX 5 min yest (vxx same)… http://screencast.com/t/fA77ukUq95

LESSONS LEARNED: she can sustain a coupla little red sticks (many squeezes can’t)… little bitta red….not much…. See red sticks #4/6/11/12, all tiny, none even touched the upper MA, and she called this a pullback! Usually “elevator” squeezes have no pullbacks. The BEST pullback without exception is a “horizontal” pullback, second best is a nice little small quiet flag-ish thing, maybe touching or maybe tail inside the upper MA, but NO body piercing upper MA… then continuing higher…ANY pullback that closes with a medium/big red stick or a stick with half its body piercing ma IS IMMEDIATELY SUSPECT….
not her…not yest…gorgeous little horizontal pb….

I’ve programmed my brain to split sell orders and feed them to the beast on the way up, it always varies based on the quality of the sticks. After the two little reds together, each stick was a PERFECT squeeze stick, each hit a higher high (any and all tails/shadows are fine), each stick closed green, didn’t even graze the higher ma, PARABOLIC is the term at/near stick #15. Perfect sticks, so each sell order I fed in was at limit HIGHER than the bid, as I could SEE them reaching for it, stretching. By stick #17/18 I’m all out, early, even tho sticks are still perfect. Watching and waiting to see when, where and HOW she will exhaust (why is not impt), she has to exhaust soon, oy. You can see she’s way too high, just in her amplitude above the pink “baseline” VWAP.
U can even take a simple ruler and measure the distance for future reference.
I’m out, what do I care? Because I am totally captivated by her…. I must watch/learn her moods when she finally exhausts.
That will be valuable info I may use later…

Yesterday was aslo perfect to SEE her potential for ripping faces off going down. Oh, she is breathtakingly brutal (but we HAVE seen worse on the way down, YES we have). Must watch her rip face; it’s not my face so I can watch dispassionately and learn…
On the final stick you could FEEL the gravity pull, in minute one two three four five, all red the whole five min, I had nothing left to sell, if I had, it would have been at limit MUCH LOWER than bid, to get out quick (NO pending pending pending, MUST get confirmed execution quickly). She ripped face on one single 5 minute stick…. must assume more ripping will follow. That’s what I meant when I said that “exiting on red sticks can be challenging” (I was trying to say it nicely, so as not to scare the children).
Zoom in, print out yesterdays chart b4 it refreshes Monday, put on fridge, so many lessons there.

This was truly a thing of beauty, pure sheer beauty…a classic elevator squeeze, wherein we were lucky enough to be long (lucky because impossible to predict), a marvel to behold, magic, better than …… well you know….better than all the rest…
[CAVEAT: Yesterday was perfect; they are often imperfect.]
She is very special SB73, she can go 20%+ on an intraday squeeze AFTER a gap, OMG, she deserves our utmost respect and our fervent study. She did much more in Aug last yr….she did it yesterday…we KNOW she will do it again…whenever she feels like it. I will never again call her a wench, that’s a promise.

PS THANK YOU BULLTART FOR YOUR CHARTS, YOUR PERSISTENT UPDATES, etc…You ‘da man

[Al_Dente]

STOCKCHARTS UPDATE (email yest)
“Dear …Thank you for sending us your message about having trouble with the custom settings for your charts. I'm sorry that happened and we noticed the same issue here. Our programmers have fixed the issue and the custom sizing should work for you now. Our apologies for any inconvenience….You may need to clear your browser's temporary file cache if you are still having trouble…”

Country… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4dldrsOpQA

[KeiZai]

Wow first red dot after a very very very long time, watch closely if she goes below 5 MA on monday...that will be a good signal to go short for a while

[KeiZai]

99er something for you

[waverider]

Good morning! The global dow is touching the 50 MA on the weekly chart, and last weeks candle was a doji. The previous three times the 50 MA was touching with a doji, we had at least a minor pullback of 3-5 weeks, will this time be different?

Other warnings of a pullback in equities: $BPOEX and $BPGDM have been pulling back recently, while $BPUTIL (defensive) has been gaining.

[BullBear52x]

Hello all, Thanks for all the great info as always. The consolidation phase has started
http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/

[Al_Dente]

After the carnage yesterday, my elder SPY chart did not print a daily red elder stick (a red elder would be nice for the bears, perhaps we’ll see one next week). Nor did SPY fill a gap down, nor test my support cushion lines, nor invade any bear territory on my other indicators. Daily heikin ashi, renko, and kagi charts (not shown here) are all still bull.
SPY is on a “day trade” sell signal, but is still bullish for trend followers on the intermediate and longer term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =255579057

$VIX broke trendline, but is often imprecise in nailing turns exactly, as she and $NYMO love to zig zag around as they move. I stay out of trouble by NOT EXPECTING them to go straight down/up. [btw: VIX DID NOT confirm Thursday’s SPY high, as she failed to make a new low].
$BPSPX usually needs to turn down a smidge to flash her reversal signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... listNum=15

$TRAN is the first index to tag a downtrend channel, 30 min, other indices haven’t yet (okay, maybe $RUT).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN& ... =255805282

Here is the bear percentage-performance chart, 30 min, 30 days, showing why the sheep were allowed to graze on VXX/TVIX the last few days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXU&p ... =255797070

“Feet, what do I need you for when I have wings to fly?” [Frida Kahlo, Artist]

[Medman]

Al_dente
I not sure where to duplicate the screencast chart and who is SB73. Is this on StockCHart?
RNM

[Al_Dente]

Weekly $NYHL reached a level last week that has, over the past two years, indicated a top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =255363294

rnmarple@cox.net
u can just printout the screencast on your printer (it’s from freestockcharts.com)
Here’s mine on stockcharts.com that u can printout
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p ... =257180502
But you really want to create yr own 5 min chart (before Monday) on stockcharts.com and print it out

Miles Davis… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDS_nqHa ... re=related

[99er]

KeiZai

Thanks for the GS chart. Here's my take:

http://www.99ercharts.com/

Have a nice weekend!

[btran874]

This is my long term stock pick LNG. Wave 2 retraces in zig-zag down to 50% retracement of Wave 1. Wave 3 forms a cup formation as it passes wave 1 which implies incredible strength of the coming and finished Wave 3. Expected completion of Wave 3 is $18.36 minimum but if Wave 3 is extended, sky's the limit which in a cup formation of Wave 2 is very possible. Completion of cup&handle is >$17.50 but I think it will go way beyond cup&handle target after it is done with this 5 waves up.

Stop loss should be set at the bottom of Wave 2 for aggressive traders or at below $10 which is 61.8% retrace of the current up trend just in case we get a nasty, 1-2, 1-2. I do not recommend this trade for short term or intermediate term. This should only be used for long term investors only.

I hope this simple analysis helps you all make money with me and cash out a few years from now.

[Al_Dente]

IMHO I don’t think that reduced total volume is a useful “tell” of an impending turn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYTV& ... listNum=15

Because we’ve seen significant rallies on low total volume before:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYTV& ... =257249822

1929: [He kept asking himself] “…What are the big boys doing now to fool me?
… It began to dawn on gullible buyers that, in Wall Street, whatever one least expects happens the most…
….Crowd enthusiasm, always greatest at the peak of a move, often leads sensible men to behave foolishly…
… He must never be lulled into a sense of stupid satisfaction or false security by the length of a particular trend…”
[Fred C. Kelly, in “How Shrewd Speculators Win: A Guide to Behavior When the Market Rises”, 1932]


Whitney Houston, R.I.P. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14ivtcelIo0

[trendfollower]

Interesting trading using math:

http://goo.gl/7hn7e

[Al_Dente]

CBOE Gold Volatility Charts
http://www.cboe.com/micro/gvz/introduction.aspx

CBOE Silver Volatility Charts
http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIXETF/VXSLV/

CBOE Volatility Charts on AAPL
http://www.cboe.com/micro/EquityVix/VXAPL/

[Pagat]

I do same volatlity math on ISEE sentiment index - past 6 years.
I've never done something like this before.
I do not know what it means and if I get correct results, but ...

Lower picture is isee index - the reading is all time high. I do no like all time high.
The upper one is isee spread. I circle similarities - I think

[TWT]

SPX: The “ideal” reversal set up would be a bearish H&S if price on Monday completes a Zig Zag shaping the right shoulder.

If this pattern plays out then the target of the second leg down is at 1321, which would imply that the NFP gap will be closed and the bears will have obtained an Island Reversal. Under these circumstances the up leg off the December 19 low will be considered done.

If the “proposed” reversal pattern is once again aborted then probably it will be a matter of just a few days for a larger Ending Diagonal to be completed as can be seen in the Dow chart

(thewavetrading.com)

[TWT]

EURUSD: I maintain, as long as price does not deny it, that the pattern from the January 16 low is not completed yet.

This scenario calls for a wave (B) in progress that should unfold a Zig Zag.

What the EUR will do in the next few hours will affect the equity immediate time frame EW pattern (potential SPX reversal pattern pending confirmation)

Below 3 potential short term options:

(thewavetrading.com)

[TWT]

2 reasons that may delay SPX reversal:

1. After an explosive move to the upside of TVIX with a 52% gain in just 2 trading sessions, an impulsive up leg may have been completed on Friday. If this were the case I would not rule out a pullback towards Fibo. retracements prior to the next up leg, then SPX reversal may be delayed for a few more days.

2. Friday´s move of CPCE above the BB is not too bearish friendly

(thewavetrading.com)

[TWT]

SPX: My preferred EW count off the October 4 low

(thewavetrading.com)